金融发展差异与货币政策区域效应——以华东六省一市为例

选取华东六省一市作为研究对象,运用因子分析方法研究2012年该7个省市金融发展情况及其差异,并对其金融发展相似性进行聚类分析。在此基础上,采用1990—2012年数据,对聚类后的三类地区通过基于VAR模型的协整关系检验、Granger因果关系检验等建立变量间长期均衡模型,实证研究货币政策在华东地区不同省市效应的差异性。研究结果表明:三类地区经济增长和货币政策对于区域金融发展均具有明显的区域效应,经济发展和广义货币供应量与金融发展均呈正相关关系。鉴此,提出如下政策建议:正视区域经济发展差异,实施差别化货币调控政策;优化各区域金融结构差异,改善货币政策传导效应等。

Research on the Financial Development Differences and the Regional Effect of Monetary Policy： Take Six Provinces and One Municipality in Eastern China as an Example

This article sets to take six provinces and one municipality in Eastern China as the research object, so as to thoroughly analyze and make contrast of the condition of the financial development of six provinces and one municipality in the year of 2012 via factor analysis, as well as using cluster analysis to identify the similarities in financial development among these places. Therefore, a long run equilibrium model between variables will be established according to clustered three types of regions by using data from the year 1990 to 2012, and cointegration test based on VAR model, and the Granger causality test, in order to conduct an empirical research on the differences in regional effect of monetary policy. The conclusion indicates that the economic growth and the monetary policy of the three types of regions can make obvious regional effects to the regional financial development, that is there are positive relationships between the economic development and Me and financial development. Finally, this article recommends that the differences of regional economic development should be faced squarely and the different monetary policies should be put into practice, as well as the constitutive differences of all regions should be optimized and the monetary conductive effects should be improved.