空间溢出视角下对外贸易和中国碳排放——基于半参数面板空间滞后模型

针对现有文献研究碳排放时忽略经济空间溢出效用以及对外贸易—碳排放非线性关系的缺憾,估算了2001-2011年中国29个省区碳排放量,然后构建半参数空间滞后模型,并结合工具变量法以解决对外贸易的内生性问题,实证研究了对外贸易对中国区域碳排放的影响。研究发现:(1)十年来中国贸易开放对碳排放的影响从促进逐渐开始转变为抑制。东部地区对外贸易发展较快,目前正处于逐渐抑制碳排放阶段;中部地区对外贸易水平较低,对外贸易的发展仍促进了碳排放的增加;西部地区对外贸易与碳排放的关系不明确。(2)半参数面板空间滞后模型比参数模型具有更高的拟合优度和更丰富的结论,它能够有效刻画碳经济现象中空间相关性与非线性特征。

Research on Relationship of Foreign Trade and Carbon Emissions in China： Based on Semi-parametric Panel of Spatial Lag Model

Existing literature on carbon emissions generally ignored the problem that the spatial spillover effects of economy as well as how trade openness influence carbon emissions nonlinearly. This paper first estimates the carbon emissions of 29 provinces of China during 2001-2011, and then creates a semi-parametric spatial lag model. From the perspective of trade endogenous, combined with the method of instrumental variables, the model effectively explains how trade liberalization affects regional carbon emissions. In this paper, results are as follows. （1） In the past decade, in the beginning China＇s foreign trade promotes carbon emissions and then shows a negative impact on it. In the eastern region, foreign trade has developed rapidly and now foreign trade gradually restrains carbon emissions. Trade openness is lower in central area. And carbon emissions grow with trade scale synchronously. However, western regions face irregular development between foreign trade and carbon emissions. （2） Semi-parametric model of spatial lag panel works better than the parameter model in goodness of fit. And we can draw richer conclusions trough it. The model effectively elaborates the characteristic of spatial correlation and nonlinear in carbon economy phenomenon.