交通运输消费倾向与需求的实证研究

无论是传统的运输需求模型还是LES或ELES模型,用于交通运输消费的行业性需求分析或预测都存在不足,主要是指标的实物化和多因素造成的函数关系的不稳定性。通过设置交通运输消费倾向,并引入持久预期收入和生命周期等理论模型可克服这些缺陷。借助交通运输消费倾向可以对中国居民交通运输消费市场进行区域划分。交通运输消费倾向与第三产业发展程度存在着显著的相关性,积极支持落后地区交通运输业的发展是缩小地区差距的一种有效方法。

The Empirical Study of Marginal Transportation Consumption and Demand

Both the traditional transportation demand model and LES or ELES model show their limitations when applied in the demand analysis and forecast of transportation consumption. The problems lie in the practicality of some indexes and the instability of the function caused by the variety of factors. The limitations can be overcome by the setup of the index of marginal transportation consumption and the introduction of the theory of Anticipated Permanent income and the theory of Lifecycle Model. By the index of marginal consumption of transportation, we can sub - divide the transportation consumption market of China. Marginal consumption of transportation is closely relevant to the development of the third industry. So it＇s effective way in minimizing the regional gap to support the development of the transportation industry in backward area.