1979-2009年中国地下经济规模测算及影响分析

应用MIMIC模型,利用1979-2009年的统计资料,将地下经济视为一个潜变量,以税收负担、犯罪率、失业率、政府管制、通货膨胀和居民收入作为地下经济的原因变量,以货币流通量及自我就业率作为地下经济的指标变量.研究显示:中国地下经济规模增长幅度较大,1979年中国地下经济规模比例仅为0.78％,2009年则高达19.93％；地下经济规模与官方经济增长率互为因果关系,地下经济对官方经济具有一定的积极作用；地下经济规模与居民收入差距为单向因果关系,即地下经济规模的扩大加剧了现阶段中国居民收入的不平等.

Study on the Size and Effects of the Underground Economy in China:1979-2009

Using the related data from 1979 to 2009 of China,this paper investigates the size and effects of the underground economy in China.A Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes Model(MIMIC) based on the structural theory has been applied.The model takes the size of the underground economy as latent variable.It includes the tax burden,crime rate,the unemployment quota,government regulation,inflation and residents’ disposable income as causes of the underground economy,and the cash-deposit ratio,self-employment participation ratio as indicators of the underground economy.The empirical results shows: The size of the underground economy grows at high speed,it only accounts for 0.78% of official GDP in 1979,and the number increases to 19.93% in 2009;The underground economy has positive effect on the official economy,and the size of the underground economy Granger causes income inequality.