中国虚拟经济与实体经济关系的灰色关联及溢出效应分析

在中国虚拟经济交易规模逐步扩大的背景下,以1998年二季度至2008年四季度的数据为样本,以虚拟经济各主要代表变量对实体经济发展的影响及虚拟经济与实体经济的关联情况、实体经济部门与虚拟经济部门的互动发展情况,进行协整分析、灰色关联分析及溢出效应分析,结果表明：中国虚拟经济各主要代表变量与实体经济间存在协整关系;虚拟经济与实体经济灰色综合关联度高,没有出现实质性分离情况;虚拟经济部门对实体经济部门的边际溢出效应远大于实体经济部门对虚拟经济部门的边际溢出效应,1998-2008年间中国虚拟经济与实体经济的互动发展基本处于＂供给引导型＂阶段。

Analysis on the Marginal Spillover Effect and Gray Relevancy of the Relationship between China's Virtual Economy and Real Economy

Influences of the major variables of virtual economy on real economy in China,relevancy situation and mutual development situation between them have been analyzed based on co-integration analysis,gray relevancy analysis and the spillover effect analysis by using quarterly data from the second quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 2008 on the background the transactions of China＇s virtual economy are being greater.The results show that there is co-integration relationship between China＇s virtual economy and real economy;there is a high gray relevancy degree between them;there is no substantial separation from China＇s virtual economy to real economy;the marginal spillover effect of output in virtual economy departments is greater than that of output in real economy departments in China and mutual development between them is basically in the stage of Supplying-leading from 1998 to 2008.