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信贷规模与房地产价格的非线性动态关系——基于中国直辖市数据的比较研究
引用本文:何静,李村璞,邱长溶.信贷规模与房地产价格的非线性动态关系——基于中国直辖市数据的比较研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2011,26(6):45-52.
作者姓名:何静  李村璞  邱长溶
作者单位:1. 西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061;西安建筑科技大学管理学院,陕西西安710055
2. 西安外国语大学商学院,陕西西安,710128
3. 西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安,710061
基金项目:教育部人文社会科学研究项目《基于正反馈机制的住宅价格异常波动及宏观调控研究》(08JA790100);陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目《基于nsfdss的西安市建筑节能可持续发展战略综合评价》
摘    要:运用非线性平滑转换模型对中国直辖市的信贷规模与房地产价格的动态关系进行对比研究。研究发现如果想要通过控制信贷规模调控房地产价格,天津和重庆更容易达成调控目标,北京则很难。在信贷规模对房地产价格产生非线性影响的条件下,信贷规模对房地产价格的影响存在不同状态,重庆在不同状态间的变化速度最快,其次是天津,最慢的是北京。

关 键 词:房地产价格  信贷规模  非线性  平滑转换模型

The Nonlinear Dynamic Relationship between Credit Quota and Housing Price:a Comparative Research Based on the Chinese Municipalities' Data
HE Jing,LI Cun-pu,QIU Chang-rong.The Nonlinear Dynamic Relationship between Credit Quota and Housing Price:a Comparative Research Based on the Chinese Municipalities' Data[J].Statistics & Information Tribune,2011,26(6):45-52.
Authors:HE Jing  LI Cun-pu  QIU Chang-rong
Institution:1(1.School of Economics and Finance,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710061,China;2.School of Management,Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi’an 710055,China;3.School of Business,Xi’an International Studies University,Xi’an 710128,China)
Abstract:The authors conduct a comparative study on the relationship between the credit quota and the housing price using Smooth Transition Regression model(STR).It is proved that if the government want to control the housing price with controlling credit quota,this may be easy realized in Tianjin and Chongqing,but very difficult be realized in Beijing.The credit quota affects the housing price in a nonlinear way on the both sides of the threshold.The switching speed between the different situations is fastest in Chongqing,followed Tianjin and Beijing.
Keywords:housing price  credit quota  nonlinear  smooth transition regression model
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