Subjective elicitation of hyperparameters of a conjugate Dirichlet prior and the corresponding Bayes analysis |
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Authors: | Richa Srivastava S K Upadhyay V K Shukla |
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Institution: | 1. Jaipuria Institute of Management, Lucknow, India;2. rsrivastava.bhu@gmail.com;4. Department of Statistics and DST Centre for Interdisciplinary Mathematical Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India;5. Department of General Surgery, Institute of Medical Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India |
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Abstract: | AbstractThe paper elicits subjectively the Dirichlet prior hyperparameters based on the realistic opinion collected from the experts. The procedure used for subjective elicitation considers several stages such as the choice of experts, formation of some relevant questions to be asked to the experts for getting their opinion, pooling of opinion, quantification of information and then the formation of exact prior distribution through quantile assessment based on an iterative procedure. The resulting prior distribution is used to provide the Bayes analysis assuming multinomial sampling plan. The results are illustrated by means of a data set involving two life style factors of gallbladder carcinoma patients. The results convey the message that matches closely with the opinion given by the medical experts. |
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Keywords: | Bayes analysis Dirichlet prior gallbladder carcinoma multinomial distribution subjective elicitation |
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