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Reconstruction of populations by stochastic optimization: Sensitivity analysis
Authors:Noël Bonneuil
Institution:Institut national d’études démographiques, Paris, France, and école des hautes études en sciences sociales, Paris, France
Abstract:The reconstruction of populations by stochastic optimization solves the nontrivial problem of finding demographic flows from population registers or vital statistics and censuses, if available. These flows allow the reconstruction of stocks (age pyramids and vital statistics). After a review of reconstruction methods, the sensitivity analysis shows the robustness of the method by stochastic optimization to flawed or missing values, to the length of the reconstruction period, and to variations in the actual demographic flows.
Keywords:imperfect information  Lotka-McKendrick  missing data  population reconstruction  stochastic optimization
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