超大城市人口—自然资源系统可持续发展水平研究——基于Laplace混合政策模拟

人口增长与集聚为超大城市的发展提供动力,也给其自然资源系统带来极大扰动,使之呈现脆弱性特征;为实现超大城市人口—自然资源可持续发展,近年来政府实施了大量调控政策,但因对城市人口—自然资源系统的复杂互动难以精确量化,导致超大城市人口与自然资源关系治理困难重重。基于此,以北京市为例构建人口—自然资源系统可持续性评价框架,从政策干预视角,分析不同类型调控政策(如人口调控、技术改进、资源管制等)与人口、自然资源的因果关系,并利用Laplace准则结合决策者风险喜好,模拟混合政策干预对人口—自然资源系统可持续性带来的影响。结果显示:政策干预是保证北京市人口—自然资源系统可持续发展的重要手段,其中,人口调控政策是北京市人口—自然资源系统可持续性变动的主要影响因素,资源管制和技术改进是次要影响因素;随着政策干预强度的增加,由于人口系统安全性和自然资源系统脆弱性的互动博弈,北京市人口—自然资源可持续性逐渐趋于稳定;在Laplace情景下,人口安全性减弱了1.82%,损失不大;而自然资源脆弱性减弱了12.13%,收益较高;最终使得人口—自然资源系统可持续性增强了6.23%。因此,对于超大城市的政策干预需...

Research on the Sustainable Development Level of Population-Natural Resource System in Megacities: Based on Laplace Mixed Policy Simulation

Population growth and agglomeration have provided an impetus for urban development,but which have brought great disturbance to the natural resource system,leading it to show the characteristics of vulnerability.In order to achieve sustainable development of population-natural resources,the government has implemented numbers of regulations and control policies in recent years.However,complex policies and their interactions on urban population-natural resource system are difficult to quantify in an accurate manner,which would increase the difficulty of balancing the relationship between urban population and natural resources.Therefore,this paper constructs a framework for evaluating the sustainability of population-natural resource system in Beijing.From the perspective of policy interventions,it analyzes the causal relationship between different types of regulatory policies(such as population regulation,technical improvement,and resource control,etc.)and population-natural resources.Meanwhile,it combined with the use of the Laplace criterion and the risk preferences of decision makers,to simulate the impact of mixed policy intervention on the sustainability of the population-natural resource system.The results show that:1)Policy intervention is an important means to ensure the sustainable development of Beijing’s population-natural resources system.Population control policies are the main influencing factors for the change of Beijing’s population-natural resource system sustainability,while resource control and technological improvement are secondary factors;2)As the intensity of policy interventions enhances,the sustainable level of population-natural resource in Beijing has gradually stabilized based on tradeoff between population system security and natural resource system fragility;3)In Laplace scenario,population security decreased by 1.82%,with a small loss.The vulnera-bility of natural resources decreased by 12.13%,and the income was higher.Finally,the sustainability of the population-natural resource system was enhanced by 6.23%.Therefore,policy intervention needs to take population security and natural resource vulnerability into consideration,rather than taking advantage of one and the other,so as to maximize the benefits of the popula-tion-natural resource system.