中国城乡弱相对贫困测算及时空演变：2012—2018

相对贫困的识别和测算是瞄准贫困人口和制定减贫政策的基础,但常用于识别相对贫困人口的比例收入法和测度相对贫困程度的FGT指数在理论基础、比例设定和贫困性质方面遭到质疑。采用基于社会融入成本理论的弱相对贫困人口识别方法,及与弱相对贫困线相适应的分层可加综合贫困指数,且考虑与现阶段我国绝对贫困线衔接性及国际标准的可比性,使用2012—2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据估计了中国城乡收入(消费)弱相对贫困线,并测算分析了中国城乡收入(消费)弱相对贫困程度及时空演变特征。研究表明,基于弱相对贫困线构造的综合贫困指数兼顾绝对贫困和相对贫困,可以避免传统FGT指数分别测度绝对贫困和相对贫困时动态变化趋势出现分歧的问题,可更为直观地综合评估经济增长和扶贫政策的减贫效应。无论城乡,尽管不平等导致相对贫困始终处于高位水平,但绝对贫困更大的下降幅度使得中国收入(消费)弱相对贫困程度仍呈稳健下降趋势。从社会融入成本角度出发,建议未来考虑住房成本和子女养育成本,分家庭类型进一步细化弱相对贫困标准。本研究有助于进一步分类瞄准弱相对贫困人口,监测弱相对贫困程度演变并综合评估减贫效应。

The Measurement and Evolution of China' s Weakly Relative Poverty: 2012-2018

The identification and measurement of relative poverty is the basis for targeting poor people and formulating poverty reduction policies.However,proportional income method and FGT index,which are often used to identify and measure the relative poverty respectively,have been questioned in terms of theoretical basis,proportion setting and poverty properties.Using the identification method of weakly relative poverty based on the cost of social inclusion and the hierarchical additive overall poverty index applicably,and considering the coherence with current standards of the China’s absolute poverty line and the comparability with international standards,this paper estimates the weakly relative income(consumption)poverty lines and measures the overall income(consumption)poverty in urban and rural China over the period 2012-2018.Our empirical analysis,based on data from China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)show that the hierarchical additive overall poverty index based on the weakly relative poverty line gives consideration to both absolute poverty and relative poverty,which can avoid the problem that absolute and relative poverty based on the FGT method evolved in opposite directions,and can more directly evaluate the overall poverty reduction effect of economic growth and poverty alleviation policies.Although relative poverty is always at a high level due to inequality,we can still conclude that overall income(consumption)poverty has been robustly reduced over the period in both urban and rural China because of a strong decrease in absolute poverty.From the perspective of social inclusion,housing costs and child-rearing costs should be taken into account to set the standard of weakly relative poverty by family type in further research.This paper is valuable to further target relatively poor people by category,monitor the evolution of weakly relative poverty,and evaluate the overall poverty reducation effect.