中国生育研究方法的历史与未来

作为人口科学研究的三大核心问题之一,生育问题始终是中国人口研究的重中之重。在过去的三四十年里,从高生育水平到长期低生育水平的转变过程中,中国生育问题研究基础数据收集和研究方法都得到长足的进步。在回顾中国生育数据收集方法、测量方法和分析方法创新的基础上,以生育问题调查数据质量问题争论与结论为主要线索,总结中国在生育问题研究过程中有关重大判断的标志性争论及历史教训,提出中国生育水平、生育意愿与行为和生育模型分析方法存在的主要问题和进一步努力的方向,特别针对新的历史时期面对婚姻家庭新形势、新问题,提出大数据时代生育问题研究面临的机遇和挑战以及传统生育测量、参数估计与模型等方面需要改进的方向和面临的问题。

The History and Future of Fertility Research Methods in China

As one of the three core research areas,fertility is always the most important research issue question in Chinese population studies.In the past 30 or 40 years,facing the transition from high fertility to low one,both the basic data collection and research methods of fertility in China have made a significant progress.Based on the review of the methods of data collection,measurement and innovation of analysis,this paper has taken the debate on data quality of fertility survey as main clue;then it summarized the historical lesson that we learn from the most important judgments.This paper has pointed out the main problems and the direction of further efforts on fertility level,desire and behavior of fertility and fertility model in China,especially in the new historical period for the new situations and issues of marriage and family.Meanwhile,it puts forward the opportunities and challenges faced by fertility research in the era of big data era,as well as the directions and problems that need to be improved traditional fertility measurement,parameter estimation and model.