“人均预期寿命提高1岁”的实证研究

温家宝总理在政府工作报告中首次提出十二五时期"人均预期寿命提高1岁"的目标。本文在生命表数据基础上,通过计算平均预期寿命贡献率并进行相关分析与回归分析后得出:我国目前平均预期寿命虽然已高于绝大多数发展中国家,但其绝对增速正逐渐放慢。而降低60～90岁年龄段老年人口死亡率、提高居民消费水平、缩小家庭规模、迁移有条件的离退休老人到低海拔地区养老是实现人均预期寿命提高1岁目标的有效路径。

The Empirical Study in Rising Life Expectancy by 1 Year in China

Wen Jiabao proposed to rise life expectancy by 1 year in 2015 in the government work report.It is significant.Based on the complete life tables,this paper calculated contribution rate of life expectancy,did correlation and regression analysis.Conclusion: At present,the life expectancy in China is higher than that in most of developing countries,but the growth rate slowing down.The effective paths to achieve the goal of rising life expectancy by 1 year include: reducing mortality of 60～90 age,raising the level of consumption,reducing family size and migrating retired old people to live in low altitude areas.