京津冀人口集聚对能源消费的影响

京津冀作为我国重要的人口集聚区,其区域发展面临严重的能源和环境问题。首先,基于STIRPAT模型构建京津冀面板数据模型,研究1990—2017年京津冀人口密度、经济增长、产业结构和环境规制对能源消费的影响。其次,采用SVAR模型通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解,研究京津冀人口密度变动对能源消费的作用机理和动态影响关系。结果显示,京津冀三地的人口密度、人均实际GDP与能源消费之间存在正向影响关系,其中河北省影响系数最大;北京和天津第三产业占比与能源消费之间存在反向影响关系,河北省第三产业占比对能源消费的影响不显著;北京和天津的环境规制对能源消费影响不显著,河北省环境规制对能源消费具有正向影响;京津冀地区和京冀两地人口密度变动对能源消费的影响在短期呈现负向效应,但是在中长期京津冀地区和三地人口密度变动对能源消费的影响均先上升然后缓慢下降,人口集聚具有集约用能效应。相对于能源消费自身影响而言,京津冀人口密度变动对能源消费的贡献相对较小,其影响效应有限。最后,对京津冀人口流动和能源消费一体化协同发展提出对策建议。

Research on the Effect of Population Agglomeration on Energy Consumptionin Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as an important population agglomeration region in China,is facing the increasingly serious energy and environment problems.Firstly,based on STIRPAT model,the paper constructs the panel data model of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to study the impact of population density,economic growth,industrial structure and environmental regulation intensity on energy consumption from 1990 to 2017.Then,it adopts the SVAR(structure vector autoregressive)model to study the function mechanism and dynamic influence relationship of population density changes on energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions through impulse response function and variance decomposition.The results show that there are positive correlations among population density,real GDP per capita and energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions,among which Hebei province has the larger influence coefficient.The proportions of tertiary industry in Beijing and Tianjin have negative influences on energy consumption,while the proportion of tertiary industry in Hebei has no significant influence on energy consumption.Environmental regulation intensities in Beijing and Tianjin have no significant impacts on energy consumption,while that in Hebei province has a positive impact on energy consumption.The impacts of population density on energy consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Beijing-Hebei regions medium are negative in the short run,but which in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and three areas first rise and then slowly decline in the medium and long term.Population agglomeration has the effect of intensive energy use.However,compared with the impacts of energy consumption itself,the impacts of population density on energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei have relatively small contribution and its effects are limited.Finally,the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the integrated and coordinated development of population flow and energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.