Timor-Leste’s demographic destiny and its implications for the health sector by 2020

Timor-Leste, the newest nation in Asia stands out demographically. The nation-building process of Timor-Leste faces significant demographic challenges due to the population growth which is the fastest in Asia and almost the fastest in the world. This unprecedented growth is primarily an outcome of the extremely high total fertility rate of Timor-Leste which is amongst the highest in the world. Amidst the worrying socio-economic condition in this new nation, it is of great concern that if the current fertility rate and its implied population growth continue as predicted, the population of Timor-Leste will double in 17 years. This paper offers an insight into the future of Timor-Leste’s demography with a particular focus on the impact of rapid pace of population growth on the health sector. The analysis is largely based on 2004 census data, as well as drawing on the broader literature and qualitative research already carried out by the lead author into the reasons behind high fertility in Timor-Leste. On this basis, the authors extrapolate key impacts of this projected population growth, and implications for the health sector.