全年龄人口死亡模型构建及应用——以江苏省为例

人口死亡特征不仅具有时间和区域属性，同时也具有年龄属性，多重属性决定了人口死亡规律的复杂性。在研究儿童少年期、青壮年期以及中老年期人口死亡模型的基础上，以江苏省为例构建了基于局部人口死亡模型的全年龄人口死亡模型，并对江苏省人口死亡过程进行了研究。研究表明：基于局部人口死亡模型的全年龄人口死亡模型能够细致刻画人口死亡过程依年龄变化的特点；江苏省儿童少年期、青壮年期和中老年期人口死亡模式可以分别采用威布尔对数线性模型、三次多项式模型和罗吉斯蒂模型来描述；近年来江苏省人口死亡水平不断下降，但各年龄层死亡水平下降特点不尽相同。

The Construction and Applications of Full Age Interval Mortality Model: A Case of Jiangsu Province

Death boasts of the characteristics such as time, area and age. These characteristics determine the complexity of the death pattern. Based on the study of the death model of childhood, youth, mid and old age, this paper, based on the population data from Jiangsu Province, builds up a full age mortality model to analyze the provinces＇ death pattern changes. The findings show the model can delicately demonstrate the changes of death pattern by age. The death patterns of childhood, youth, mid and old age in Jiangsu Province can be described by Wei Bull distribution model, cubic polynomial model and logistic model accordingly. The mortality rate keep dropping down in the past decades while it differs in different age group.