灾难事件对生育率的影响：历史经验与现实思考

纵观人类历史,任何一次重大灾难事件都会导致生育率波动变化。灾难事件周期与生育率变动的一般规律为:生育率在灾难事件发生短期内会受挫下降,灾难事件恢复中期内回升反弹,灾后长周期内则回归灾难事件前的变动大趋势。从外在因素的影响看,灾难事件范围越广,波及人口越多且致死率越高,生育率波动越剧烈,疫情和与环境有关的灾难事件可能会对生育能力产生负面影响。从内在因素的影响看,灾害发生地的经济发展水平、教育水平与家庭经济能力、人口年龄结构以及政府的应对能力等会影响生育率波动幅度,但不会改变波动方向。通过影响机制分析,初步观察新冠肺炎疫情所造成的生育率下降是高死亡数量带来的心理冲击、经济衰退、停工停产以及对未来生活预期不明朗和信心减弱综合作用的结果。

Fertility Effects of Disaster Events:Historic Experience and Practical Implications

Throughout human history, every major disaster event has led to fertility fluctuations. This paper explores the general patterns between disaster events and fertility. Firstly, fertility rate decreases in the short cycle during and after the disaster event, rebounds in the medium cycle, and returns to the pre-disaster ongoing trend in the long cycle. Secondly, in terms of external factors, wider geographical scope of the disaster event, larger scale of affected population, and higher mortality rate are all causing fertility fluctuation more fiercely. Additionally, pandemics and environment related disaster events may have a negative impact on fecundity, leading to a reduction in fertility. Thirdly, in terms of the internal factors, economic development, education level, and the average age of the affected population would change the amplitude of fertility fluctuation, but not the direction of fluctuation. Suggested by these mechanism analysis, COVID-19 has reduced the fertility rate by the combined influence of psychological shock of high death toll, economic recession, production shutdown, uncertain future life expectations, and weakened confidence.