| 宁夏人口增长：结构性差异和自回归预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 廖永松,于法稳,李周.宁夏人口增长：结构性差异和自回归预测[J].西北人口,2011(5):77-80,84. |
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| 作者姓名： | 廖永松 于法稳 李周 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国社会科学院农村发展所; |
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| 基金项目： | 中国社会科学院重大国情项目水资源空间配置和中国社会科学院基础学者项目水资源需求远景分析的理论和方法创新及在西部地区的应用项目的支持 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文在回顾已有关于宁夏人口预测方法和结论的基础上，首先用Chow检验法检验了建国以来宁夏人口变动特征。结果表明宁夏人口增长出现了显著的结构性差异，然后用扩展的Dicky-Fuller检验法验证了宁夏人口数量、宁夏人口占全国人口的比例为单位根过程，而宁夏人口增长率为带常数和时间趋势项的平稳随机过程，最后利用建立的宁夏人口增长量、宁夏人口占全国人口比例一阶差分自回归模型预测了未来宁夏人口规模。预计宁夏人口在占全国人口中的比例会进一步增加。人口将从2009年的625万增加到2050年865万。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口 宁夏 AR模型 人口承载力 |
Population Growth of Ningxia:Structural Change and Autoregressive Projections |
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| LIAO Yong-song,YU Fa-wen,LI Zhou.Population Growth of Ningxia:Structural Change and Autoregressive Projections[J].Northwest Population Journal,2011(5):77-80,84. |
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| Authors: | LIAO Yong-song YU Fa-wen LI Zhou |
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| Institution: | LIAO Yong-song,YU Fa-wen,LI Zhou(Rural Development Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732) |
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| Abstract: | This paper overviews the relevant literatures on Ningxia's population projections at first,then tests its characteristics of Ningxia's population growth since 1949 by the methods of Chow-test and Augmented Dicky-Fuller test.The statistical results demonstrate that Ningxia's population growth has had structural change during different periods and the serial of population growth rate is stationary with constant and time trends.Ningxia's population is furthermore projected by the first order difference of auto... |
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| Keywords: | Population projections Ningxia AR Model Carrying Capacity |
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