儿童照料与二孩生育意愿 ——来自上海的证据

本文围绕一项针对上海市育龄女性的生育意愿调查,分别使用二分和有序Logit方法分析儿童照顾对上海市育龄女性的二孩生育意愿的影响。研究发现当育龄女性能够从家庭内和社会中获得更多孩子照料的时间支持时,她们有更高的二孩生育意愿,也会伴有更明确的二孩生育规划;双独家庭能够从父辈获得更多的经济、时间上的帮助,因此他们要比单独家庭和双非家庭更愿意再生一个孩子;居住于上海市城区的女性从某种程度上更易获得孩子的照料资源,有更多的优质教育资源可供选择,因此她们的二孩生育意愿高于居住于郊区的女性。此外,本文通过是否采用了避孕措施对二孩生育的意愿程度做了进一步区分,结果发现当第一个孩子主要是由孩子父母承担照料工作的时候,女性存在二孩生育意愿的程度是最低的,祖辈照料对二孩生育意愿程度的积极影响也明显低于社会性照料,此现象在上海市户籍的女性中体现尤为明显。最后为纠正自选择偏差问题,本文使用倾向值匹配方法(PSM)进一步验证了与首孩性别相比,首孩的抚养成本与接受照料情况显然对二孩生育意愿的影响程度更大。因此,本文认为加大公共托育服务的供给、为育龄女性提供高质量的0-3岁婴幼儿社会照料支持是提高二孩生育意愿的最有效政策。

Child Care and the Desire to Bear Another Child--Evidence from Shanghai

This paper focuses on a survey on the fertility willingness of women of childbearing age in Shanghai,using binary logit and ordered logit to analyze the impact of child care on the fertility willingness of second-child women in Shanghai. The study found that when women can get more time support from their families and society,they have a higher propensity to have two children,and they have a clearer plan for two-child births;The spouse from One-Child families can get more economic and time help from their parents,so they are more willing to regenerate a child than other patterns of family;Women living in urban areas are more likely to have access to their children’s care resources and have more educational resources to choose from,so they are more willing to have a second child. In addition,this paper further distinguished the degree of fertility intention of the second child by whether contraceptive measures were adopted,and found that when the first child was taken care of by the child’s parents,women are the least likely to have a second child,and the positive effect of ancestor care on the childbearing degree of second child is significantly lower than social care. Finally,in order to correct the problem of self-selection bias,this paper uses the Propensity Score Matching(PSM)to further verify that compared with the sex of the first child,the cost and care of the first child is obviously more affected by the willingness to reproduce. Therefore,this paper believes that increasing the supply of public care services is the most effective policy to increase the willingness to have a second child.