改革开放后中国地下经济规模及其影响研究

应用多指标多原因模型(MIMIC)测算1979—2009年中国地下经济规模,结果表明改革开放后中国地下经济规模占GDP比例增长幅度较大,1990达到了23.28%,1992年以后则处于相对较为稳定的状态,约为20%左右,但相对规模仍然偏大。税收负担、失业率和政府管制是影响中国地下经济活动的主要因素;地下经济规模比例与官方经济增长率互为因果关系,地下经济对官方经济具有一定的积极作用;但是,地下经济规模的扩大也降低了资源配置效率,并加剧了现阶段中国居民收入的不平等。

Study on the Size and Effects of the Underground Economy in China:1979—2009

A Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes Model(MIMIC) is used to calculate the size of China’s underground economy size during 1979-2009,the results show that the increasing range of the proportion of China’s underground economy size to GDP is relatively large and reached 23.28 percent in 1990 and about 20 percent after 1992 in a relatively stable ratio but the relatively size is still on big side,that the chief factors affecting China’s underground economic activities include tax burden,unemployment rate and government control,that underground economy size proportion and governmental economic growth rate are reciprocal causality,and that underground economy has certain active action on governmental economy,however,the enlargement of underground economy size decreases the resources allocation efficiency and intensifies the income inequality among Chinese citizens at present stage.