中国IS—LM曲线的特殊性探讨——基于投机性货币需求扩展的理论分析与计量检验

通过对凯恩斯投机性货币需求理论二元货币市场结构的扩展,重构我国的IS—LM模型,得出IS、LM曲线斜率均为负的假定;利用1990—2008年统计数据,对我国IS—LM曲线进行计量检验,结果支持我国LM曲线斜率为负的假定。我国LM曲线向左上方倾斜的主要原因有三:一是主要采取调节存款准备金率或者直接调节利率的方式对货币供应量进行调控,而非通过债券市场调节货币供应;二是金融市场结构不是简单的货币、债券二元市场结构,还包括股市、楼市等;三是利率低市场化。研究表明,我国的财政政策比货币政策更能增进产出水平。应加快债券市场发展,完善央行调控货币供应的工具体系,维护币值稳定,抑制楼市及股市投机现象,并继续推进利率市场化和国有企业改革。

Discussion on Special Characteristics of IS—LM Curve of China——Theoretical Analysis and Quantitative Test Based on the Extension of Speculative Monetary Demand

By extending the dual monetary market structure of Keynesians speculative monetary demand theory,China’s IS-LM Model is restructured,the assumption which the slope of both IS curve and LM curve is negative is arrived at.Based on statistical data from 1990—2008,the China’s IS-LM curve is quantitatively tested,the results support the assumption of negative slope of China’s LM curve.The reason for that China’s LM curve is inclined to left upward side is that domestic monetary supply quantity is mainly controlled by adjusting savings preparation requirement ratio or direct adjustment of interest rate but not by the approach of treasury bond market,that the financial market is not simple dual market structure of money and bonds but includes stock market,real estate and so on,and that interest rate is adjusted by marketization.The research shows that China’s financial policy can increase more output level than monetary policy,China should accelerate bound market development,perfect instrument system of central government’s adjusting monetary supply,maintain the stability of money,restrict speculation of stock market and real estate market and continue to boost the reform of interest rate marketization and state-owned enterprises.