从成本与收益看东亚货币合作的前景

最优货币区和货币区的收益与成本分析是建立区域货币联盟可行性分析的两种理论。它们的内在联系是:如果一些国家或地区符合最优货币区理论的标准越多,则组成货币区的净收益就越大。东亚各国目前经济发展水平参差不齐,符合最优货币区标准的情况及货币合作的愿望与要求各相庭径,因而进行货币合作的成本与收益各不相同,目前尚不具备货币合作的条件。但是,东亚货币合作可以在目前已达成的货币互换协议的基础上,逐步建立亚洲货币合作基金,建立汇率稳定机制等,使东亚货币合作逐步迈向货币一体化。

Applying the Cost-Benefit Analysis to East Asian Monetary Cooperation

Optimum Currency Areas and Cost-Benefit Analysis are the main theories available for use as frameworks in feasibility studies of forming regional Common Currency Areas.The two theories are connected with each other: the more conditions the countries have to form Optimum Currency Areas,the more benefits they will get from their formation.Nevertheless,since there are great differences in economic development levels and conditions for forming Optimum Currency Areas among the East Asian countries,their costs and benefits of monetary cooperation will also differ.Accordingly,wishes and demands for cooperation vary among the constituent countries.Although East Asian countries have few conditions to create a common currency now,they can strengthen their monetary cooperation step-by-step on the basis of the Currency Swap Agreement signed in 2002,by forming the Asian Monetary Fund,creating an Asian Monetary Unit,and establishing a stable mechanism of exchange rate.