基于GM(1，1)残差尾段修正模型的我国建筑业总产值预测研究

在动态灰色预测模型（GM（1，1）模型）的基础上，选取我国近七年建筑业总产值作为研究对象，为了提高模型精度和预测更加准确性，建立残差尾段修正模型。结果表明，基于GM (1，1)残差尾段修正模型预测我国建筑业总产值的准确性有所提高，且达到相应模型精度要求，对我国短期建筑业总产值的预测具有一定的参考价值。

A research on the forecast of total output of construction industry in China based on GM (1,1) modified residual error model

This paper is focused on the methods for the forecast of total output value of construction industry in China. The total output value of China''s construction industry in the past seven years is selected as the research object based on the dynamic grey system GM (1,1) model. The modified residual error model and the correction of residuals'' remainder are used to improve the accuracy of the model and forecast results. The simulated analysis indicates that the prediction accuracy of China''s construction industry output value has been improved based on GM (1,1) modified residual error model. It could provide reference to the forecast of the total output value of China''s short-term construction industry.