后刘易斯时代的经济发展

从经济发展过程来看,刘易斯的二元经济只是经济发展过程中的一个阶段,笔者称之为刘易斯时代。从理论上看,还应有前刘易斯时代和后刘易斯时代两个阶段。目前中国可能处于从刘易斯时代向后刘易斯时代的转变过程中。这就是经济增长方式转变的实质,即从主要依靠土地、资本、非熟练劳动力的经济增长方式转移为主要依靠科技和人力资本的经济增长方式。这个时期经济竞争的实质是人才的竞争、科技的竞争。为此,要调整人才政策和科技政策,进行大规模的人力资本投资;要改造传统农业和农村,防止农村空心化,推进农业现代化进程,大力投资农业;要推进人口城市化进程,消除城市化的制度障碍。

Economical Development in Post-Lewis Time

In view of the process of economical development,Lewis’ dual-economy is only a stage,a Lewis Time as I call it.At present,China is probably faced with a transition from pre to post Lewis Time,which is the essence of the transformation of the ways of economical development.In this period,the competition happens in contending for talents and technology.It is necessary to invest in large scope on human resources,to reform traditional agriculture and countryside,to promote agricultural modernization by investment.It is also necessary to quicken the pace of urbanization and to eliminate the obstacles in the institutions for urbanization.