模型分析表明,在“十一五”期间我国会出现中央银行的正常基础货币增加无法满足外汇储备增加的局面,迫使央行只有通过持续发行债券来抵补国外资产与基础货币的差额,这势必会导致恶性的通货膨胀。建议中央银行适当提高法定存款准备金率,进一步扩大人民币汇率的浮动空间,在适当时候考虑实现我国人民币在资本项目下的完全可兑换。

It is forecasted that foreign assets will exceed reserve money in the People's Bank of China(PBC) during the "Eleventh Five Year" period.So the continual bond issue with PBC will offset the difference of them,which could bring on inflationary spiral.PBC should raise reserve requirements rate,widen the floatability of the exchange rate,and even open its capital account to make Chinese currency(RMB) full convertible if circumstances permit.