货币政策的城市房价传导异质性及——房价溢出效应研究
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The Heterogeneity of Monetary Policy on Urban Housing Price Transmission and the Spillover Effect of Housing Price
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    摘要:

    将我国70个大中城市分为5个层级,基于2009年1月—2018年6月的数据并以2015年12月为界,运用GVAR模型研究房地产“去库存”政策实施前后,货币政策调整对城市房价的影响效应和房价溢出效应及其对货币政策冲击各城市房价直接效果的影响。结果表明:各级城市房价受货币供应量冲击后呈正向响应,利率冲击的影响效应则受“去库存”政策的影响由负转为正;较“去库存”政策实施前,城市房价对货币供应量和利率变动的响应强度更大、收敛速度更快。货币政策变动对不同城市房价具有异质性影响,城市发展等级越高,受货币政策冲击的反应幅度越高,且“去库存”政策使新一线、二线城市房价对货币政策变动的响应幅度超过一线城市。各级城市间房价溢出效应显著,总体上发展等级越高的城市房价溢出效应越大,溢出效应也加剧了城市间房价的分化情况。

    Abstract:

    This paper divides 70 large and mediumsized cities in China into 5 levels. Based on the data from January 2009 to June 2018 and bounded in December 2015,the GVAR model is used to study the impact of monetary policy adjustment on urban housing price,as well as the spillover effect of housing price and its direct effect on the housing price of various cities affected by monetary policy in two periods. The results show that the housing price of cities at all levels is positively responding to the impact of money supply,while the effect of interest rate impact is changed from negative to positive by the “destocking” policy. Compared to the time before the implementation of “destocking” policy,the response of urban housing price to changes in money supply and interest rate is stronger and the rate of convergence is faster. Changes in monetary policy have a heterogeneous impact on housing prices in different cities. The higher the urban development level,the higher the response to the impact of monetary policy. Moreover,the “destocking” policy makes the response of house prices in the new first and secondtier cities to the changes of monetary policy larger than that in the firsttier cities. The spillover effect of housing price among cities at all levels is conspicuous. Generally speaking,the higher the development level,the greater the spillover effect of housing price,and the spillover effect also aggravates the divergence of housing price between cities.

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潘海英,史 梦,汪 欣.货币政策的城市房价传导异质性及——房价溢出效应研究[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2021,23(1):80-88.(PAN Haiying, et al. The Heterogeneity of Monetary Policy on Urban Housing Price Transmission and the Spillover Effect of Housing Price[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2021,23(1):80-88.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-03-04