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中国管理科学

中国管理科学 ›› 2023, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 56-69.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1071

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

网络舆情扰动下房地产投资者“追涨杀跌”行为扩散研究

王磊1, 2, 李守伟2, 何建敏2, 候德飞3   

  1. 1.南京工业大学经济与管理学院，江苏 南京211816；2.东南大学经济管理学院，江苏 南京211189；3.东南大学网络空间安全学院，江苏 南京211189
  • 收稿日期:2019-07-22 修回日期:2020-04-14 出版日期:2023-01-20 发布日期:2023-02-09
  • 通讯作者: 李守伟(1984-)，男(汉族)，安徽蚌埠人，东南大学经济管理学院，教授，博士，研究方向：金融复杂性与风险管理，Email：lishouwei@seu.edu.cn. E-mail:lishouwei@seu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目（71971111，71871115，71671037，71971055）；国家教育部人文社会科学研究资助项目（22YJC790128，19YJAZH086）；江苏省软科学研究面上项目（BR2022057）；江苏省社会科学应用研究精品工程课题重点资助项目（22SYA-010）；江苏高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目（2022SJYB0215）

The Behavior Spread of “Buying the Winners” of Real Estate Investors under the Disturbance of Internet Public Opinion

WANG Lei1, 2, LI Shou-wei2, HE Jian-min2, HOU De-fei3   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China;2. School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China;3. School of Cyber Science and Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China
  • Received:2019-07-22 Revised:2020-04-14 Online:2023-01-20 Published:2023-02-09
  • Contact: 李守伟 E-mail:lishouwei@seu.edu.cn

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摘要： 一旦房地产投资者“追涨杀跌”行为发生大范围扩散，将诱发房地产市场的价格严重偏离甚至动荡。本文从传播学与行为金融学交叉视角，基于复杂网络理论构建了房地产投资者“追涨杀跌”行为的网络扩散模型，进而仿真分析了网络舆情与投资者行为偏好交互作用下房地产投资者“追涨杀跌”行为扩散的演化特征。研究表明：房地产投资者越偏向于随机建立关联，“追涨杀跌”行为越可能快速扩散；网络舆情因素在“追涨杀跌”行为扩散过程中发挥主导作用，同时对投资者行为偏好因素发挥较强的“强化效应”或“抑制效应”；当媒体权威性足够高或网民情绪足够乐观时，通过综合调节网络舆情和投资者行为偏好因素能够有效实现预防和限制“追涨杀跌”行为扩散的目的。

关键词: 网络舆情；投资者行为偏好；“追涨杀跌”行为；复杂网络

Abstract: Under the guidance of Internet public opinion, it is likely to intensify the speculative psychology of real estate investors, and then evolve into behavior of “buying the winners” and intensify its diffusion. Once the behavior of “buying the winners” occurs in a large scale, it will lead to serious value deviation of the real estate market or even turbulence, which is not conducive to the stable development of national economy and the improvement of people’s living standards. However, the current research rarely considers the interaction of Internet users, media and government, which leads to the conclusion that the behavior of “buying the winners” is not representative enough. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the synergistic effect of these three main bodies, and then to study the diffusion mechanism and evolution characteristics of the behavior of “buying the winners” under the disturbance of network public opinion.

Key words: internet public opinion; investor behavior preference; “buying the winners”; complex network

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