| “供给侧改革”背景下中国能源经济形势展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 郝宇,郑少卿,彭辉. “供给侧改革”背景下中国能源经济形势展望[J]. 北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2017, 19(2): 28-34. DOI: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2017.0204 |
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| 作者姓名： | 郝宇 郑少卿 彭辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京理工大学管理与经济学院 能源与环境政策研究中心,北京,100081;北京理工大学管理与经济学院 能源与环境政策研究中心,北京,100081;北京理工大学管理与经济学院 能源与环境政策研究中心,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目资助（71521002）;国家自然科学基金智库项目资助（71642004）;国家自然科学基金资助项目（71403015）;北京经济社会可持续发展研究基地项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 当前,中国经济已进入“新常态”,“十三五”规划正在稳步推进,“供给侧改革”也进入了深化和攻坚阶段,对国民经济的一些重要行业和能源领域产生了重大影响。基于“供给侧改革”的总体背景,展望中国能源经济形势,并遵循绿色健康可持续发展的理念,运用情景分析法预测2020年前中国煤炭消费量、能源消费总量和能源消费结构。结果显示:在基准情境下,预计煤炭消费量将逐年下降,能源消费总量增长将逐渐放缓,能源消费结构也将伴随着供给侧改革的深化持续优化。
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| 关 键 词： | 供给侧改革 产能过剩行业 煤炭消费量 能源消费总量 能源消费结构 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-01-17 |
The Perspective of China's Energy Economy under the Background of the Supply-side Reform |
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| HAO Yu,ZHENG Shaoqing and PENG Hui. The Perspective of China's Energy Economy under the Background of the Supply-side Reform[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition), 2017, 19(2): 28-34. DOI: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2017.0204 |
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| Authors: | HAO Yu ZHENG Shaoqing PENG Hui |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | Currently,China''s economy has entered the "new normal" phase,and the "13th Five-Year plan" is advancing steadily. At the meanwhile,the "supply-side reform" has also headed into a critical stage,which may have significant impacts on some important industries and energy sector. Under the background of the supply-side reform,this paper analyzes the situation of China''s energy economy. Based on the concept of sustainable,coordinated and green development,China:s coal consumption,energy consumption and energy consumption structure by 2020 are forecasted using scenario analysis. The results indicate that,under the benchmark scenario,the coal consumption would be decreasing over time,and the growth rates of total energy consumption would gradually slow down,and the energy consumption structure would also be optimized along with the deepening of the supply-side reform. |
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| Keywords: | supply-side reform industries with surplus production capacity coal consumption total energy consumption energy consumption structure |
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