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| 基于突变理论模型的创业板上市公司财务状况评价 | |
| 引用本文： | 朱兆珍1, 2, 郝喜玲1, 3. 基于突变理论模型的创业板上市公司财务状况评价[J]. 电子科技大学学报社科版, 2016, 18(4): 82-87,91. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2016)04-0082-06 |
| 作者姓名： | 朱兆珍1 2 郝喜玲1 3 |
| 摘 要： | 以2011～2013年280家创业板上市公司为研究样本，通过主成份分析，构建多层次评价指标体系，依据突变理论模型演算财务状况指数和各因子指数，发现：（1）财务状况指数均值分别为0.701、0.698和0.740，个股财务状况指数中分别有14.28%、14.28%和10.71%不及格，17.86%、10.71%和14.29%处于0.6～0.7，50%、57.14%和46.43%居于0.7～0.8，17.76%、17.86%和28.57%处于0.8～0.9；（2）就行业结构来看，制造业占比较大；（3）纵向分析各因子和财务状况指数值，2013年最高，2011年次之，2012年最低；（4）横向分析表明创业板上市公司具有较强的成长能力和盈利能力，偿债能力较弱，而营运能力很不理想。最后结合实证分析结果提出了改善建议。 |
| 关 键 词： | 突变级数法 创业板 财务状况 评价 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-02-10 |
Financial Status Evaluation of the Listed Companies on GEM Based on Catastrophe Theory Model |
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| ZHU Zhao-zhen1, 2, HAO Xi-ling1, 3. Financial Status Evaluation of the Listed Companies on GEM Based on Catastrophe Theory Model[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2016, 18(4): 82-87,91. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2016)04-0082-06 | |
| Authors: | ZHU Zhao-zhen1 2 HAO Xi-ling1 3 |
| Abstract: | The paper focuses on the 280 listed companies on GEM from 2011 to 2013, and then calculates financial conditions indices based on catastrophe theory model. The results show that:(1) the average values of the financial conditions indices are respectively 0.701, 0.698, and 0.740. There are 14.28%, 14.28%, and 10.71% of the samples failed; 17.86%, 10.71%, and 14.29% between 0.6~0.7; 50%, 57.14%, and 46.43% between 0.7~0.8; 17.76%, 17.86%, and 28.57% between 0.8~0.9; (2) as far as the industry is concerned, the manufacturing industry accounts for the larger; (3) from the perspective of longitudinal analysis, the values of different factors and financial conditions indices are the highest in 2013, the middle position in 2011, and the lowest in 2012; (4) from the perspective of horizontal analysis, the values of different factors and financial conditions indices suggest that the GEM listed companies have strong growing ability and profitability, but with weak debt-paying ability and ideal operation ability. Finally, according to the empirical analysis results, the policy recommendations are put forward. |
| Keywords: | catastrophe progression method GEM the financial status evaluation |
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