| 新贸易形势下中国能源经济预测与展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 郝宇,赵明远,高尚. 新贸易形势下中国能源经济预测与展望[J]. 北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2019, 21(2): 12-19. DOI: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2019.7291 |
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| 作者姓名： | 郝宇 赵明远 高尚 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京理工大学管理与经济学院 能源与环境政策研究中心,北京,100081;北京理工大学管理与经济学院 能源与环境政策研究中心,北京,100081;北京理工大学管理与经济学院 能源与环境政策研究中心,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（71521002，71761137001，71403015） |
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| 摘 要： | 随着2018年以来中美贸易摩擦升级等国际贸易形势的变动，中国经济迎来了新的机遇与挑战。在新贸易形势与中国内部产业升级的共同影响下，中国能源行业在快速发展的同时也面临调整压力。从行业角度阐述新贸易形势下中国能源经济发展前景，并通过情景分析对各能源行业与能源密集型行业的产值与能源消费进行预测，探讨新贸易形势下中国能源经济发展趋势和路径。根据预测结果，中国能源消费结构将持续优化，中美贸易摩擦对中国宏观经济影响并不十分显著，但是仍对某些能源与能源相关行业的产值与能源消费具有一定的不利影响。中国应从重点行业着手，多手段应对新贸易形势下能源经济波动。
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| 关 键 词： | 新贸易形势 中美贸易摩擦 能源经济 情景分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-01-25 |
Forecast and Prospect of China's Energy Economy under the New Trade Situation |
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| HAO Yu,ZHAO Mingyuan and GAO Shang. Forecast and Prospect of China's Energy Economy under the New Trade Situation[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition), 2019, 21(2): 12-19. DOI: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2019.7291 |
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| Authors: | HAO Yu ZHAO Mingyuan GAO Shang |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | With the change of international trade situation such as the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions since 2018，China's economy is facing new opportunities and challenges. Under the joint influences of the new trade conditions and the upgrading of domestic industries，China's energy industry is under the pressure of making corresponding adjustment when keeping relatively fast development. This study investigates China's energy economy development under the new trade situation from the perspectives of individual industries. Specifically，the output and energy consumptions of energy-intensive and energy-related industries through scenario analysis are forecasted in different scenarios，and then the trend of China's energy economy development under the new trade conditions is predicted by summing up the forecast results of all individual industries. According to the forecast results，although Sino-US trade frictions would negatively affect the output and energy consumptions of some energy-intensive and energy-related industries，the influence on China's economy as a whole is limited. At the same time，China's energy consumption structure is expected to optimize consistently with the ratio of non-fossil energy rising over time. China should focus on the key industries and take various measures to deal with the possible fluctuations of energy economy under the new trade conditions. |
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| Keywords: | new trade conditions sino-US trade frictions energy economy scenario analysis |
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