| 人口老龄化、人力资本结构与科技创新 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋长流,司怀涛. 人口老龄化、人力资本结构与科技创新[J]. 北京科技大学学报(社会科学版), 2022, 38(5): 593-603. DOI: 10.19979/j.cnki.issn10082689.2022030128 |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋长流 司怀涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽大学 经济学院 合肥 230601 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社科基金项目“新型城镇化进程中低碳发展转型的激励和约束机制研究”（编号:14BJL104）；安徽省科技创新战略与软科学研究重大专项“全社会R&D投入持续稳定提高的政策措施与途径研究（编号:1706a02020046）” |
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| 摘 要： | 科技创新是推动经济高质量发展的核心因素，而人口老龄化与人力资本结构对科技创新具有重要影响。文章采用2008—2017年31个省面板数据，基于空间杜宾模型，对人口老龄化、人力资本结构与科技创新之间的关系进行了实证研究。空间杜宾模型的实证结果显示，人口老龄化对本地区及邻近地区科技创新均具有显著的抑制作用，而人力资本则可以显著促进本地区科技创新，但对于邻近地区，以不同数据指标测度的人力资本并未表现出预期的空间正向溢出。另外，人力资本中介效应检验结果显示，人力资本在人口老龄化影响科技创新的过程中存在部分遮掩效应。因而在人口老龄化程度不断加深的背景下，应不断优化人力资本结构，进一步增加科研投入，以促进区域创新能力的提升。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口老龄化 人力资本结构 科技创新 空间杜宾模型 中介效应 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-03-30 |
Population Aging,Human Capital Structure and Innovation in Science and TechnologyAn Empirical Study Based on Spatial Durbin Model and Mediation Effect |
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| Affiliation: | School of Economics, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China |
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| Abstract: | Scientific and technological innovation is the core factor to promote high-quality economic development, and population aging and human capital structure have an important impact on scientific and technological innovation. Using the panel data of 31 provinces from 2008 to 2017, based on the Spatial Durbin Model, this paper conducts an empirical study on the relations among population aging, human capital structure and scientific and technological innovation. The empirical results of the Spatial Durbin Model show that population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on scientific and technological innovation in the given region and its adjacent regions, while human capital can significantly promote scientific and technological innovation in the region. However, for adjacent regions, human capital measured by different data indicators does not show the expected spatial positive spillover. In addition, the mediation effect test results of human capital show that human capital has a partial masking effect in the process that population aging affects scientific and technological innovation. Therefore, in the context of the increasingly aging population, we should constantly optimize the human capital structure and further increase investments in research and development to facilitate the improvement of regional innovation capacity. |
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