| 地方政府债券发行额度的优化配置研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 尹启华,陈志斌. 地方政府债券发行额度的优化配置研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2018, 26(1): 90-97. DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.01.009 |
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| 作者姓名： | 尹启华 陈志斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 东南大学经济管理学院, 江苏 南京 211189;2. 嘉兴学院商学院, 浙江 嘉兴 314001 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省社科规划基金项目（18NDJC079YB）;国家自然科学基金资助项目（71672034）;教育部人文社科基金项目（14YJCZH188）;浙江省科技厅软科学研究项目（2016C35005） |
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| 摘 要： | 地方政府债券"自发自还"模式虽然可以有效解决以往模式发行主体和偿债主体的不一致性,但高层级地方政府在分配债券资源时仍然面临着较大的信息不对称和道德风险。本文依据结构化模型及契约理论,从高层级地方政府的角度构建了地方政府债券发行额度的分配决策模型。在效益风险合理搭配的框架下,通过使用遗传算法对双重目标进行加权,分析了省级政府与地（市）级政府之间的债券优化配置方案。研究结果表明,基于经济社会效益最大化和政府债券违约概率最小化等多目标优化求解,可以实现政府债券资源分配的帕累托改进。这对于地方政府债务风险显性化和政府债券合理配置研究将大有裨益,从而有利于科学管控我国日益严峻的地方政府债务风险。
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| 关 键 词： | 地方政府债券 发行额度 优化配置 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-11-26 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017-03-30 |
Study on Optimal Allocation of Issuance Amount of Local Government Bonds |
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| YIN Qi-hua,CHEN Zhi-bin. Study on Optimal Allocation of Issuance Amount of Local Government Bonds[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2018, 26(1): 90-97. DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.01.009 |
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| Authors: | YIN Qi-hua CHEN Zhi-bin |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China;2. Business School, Jiaxing University, Jiaxing 314001, China |
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| Abstract: | Although the mode about issues and repayments by itself of local government bonds can effectively solve the problem about the non-conformance of the issue subject and the debt service subject, yet the high level government still faces great information asymmetry and moral hazard in the allocation of bond resources. Because China nation state carries on the quota management to debt balance of the local government, the provincial government is faced with the problem of how to allocate the new municipal government bonds under constraint conditions of ∑xti ≤ A1.The ultimate goal is to minimize the probability of government debt default and maximize its benefits. In light of the Structure Model and the Contract Theory,the allocation decision model of local government bond issuance is constructed from the perspective of the high-ranking local government. A prerequisite is set as one of the constraint conditions on the minimum default risk or the maximum benefit of the government bond issuance, and approaches are stuied to be revealled to the realization of another goal. However, this depends on a reasonable determination of the weight of the two objectives. These two targets are used to give the corresponding weights by the weight coefficient transformation method. The multiple targets about the minimum default risk and the maximum benefit of the government bond issuance are synthesized into a single global target, and then an optimal solution set is sought by target optimization. Under the framework of the reasonable matching of income and risk, by using the genetic algorithm, into the bond configuration optimization scheme between the provincial government and municipal government based on the weighted dual objective. The results show that multi-objective optimization can realize the Pareto improvement of government bond resource allocation on the basis of the minimum default risk and the maximum benefit of the government bond issuance. A provincial government with 15 municipal cities included is taken as an example. The provincial government will distribute bond issuance amount based on the size of the assets of the municipal governments. This will be of great benefit to the study of debt risk dominances and the rational allocation of government bonds. Accordingly, it is conducive to the scientific management of China's increasingly serious debt risk of local governments. |
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| Keywords: | local government bonds issue amount optimal allocation |
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