股票流动性与期望收益的关系研究

本文选取换手率作为股票流动性指标,采用FM两阶段截面回归方法研究了股票流动性与期望收益的关系。研究表明,我国股票市场流动性的波动较为稳定;股票流动性和期望收益的异常波动主要受政策的影响,但在周内的变化不存在系统性差异;上市公司的市场价值与股票收益无关;股票的流动性与期望收益负相关;投资者可以根据股票流动性与期望收益的关系套利。     

基于无缺陷退货的网上销售易逝品供应链协调模型

本文针对网上在线销售易逝品的无缺陷退货现象,考虑了供应链的最优订购协调问题。利用一个两阶段动态规划来描述动态市场环境下网上销售商的两次订购行为,在假定在两个销售阶段都发生无缺陷退货现象的前提下,分别建立了集中和分散决策模型,同时设计了价格保护契约以实现供应链的协调运作。最后,利用数值仿真得出了一些重要的管理启示。通过研究发现：（1）当不确定性较大时,网上销售商需要在第1阶段多订购产品以应对需求风险,因此导致了较低的系统期望利润。并且,需求的不确定性越大,供应链协调越有价值。（2）当第1阶段或第2阶段退货率或两阶段退货率都增加时,两个阶段的最优订购量均减小。（3）对于需求波动性较高的产品,顾客的退货率越小或者可服务退货率越大,价值越高（即对供应链系统期望利润的提高越显著）。     

考虑消费者退货的制造商入侵策略研究

在考虑消费者退货的情形下,通过构建包括一个制造商、一个零售商和消费者的二级供应链模型,研究了订货量决策以及制造商开通直销渠道的问题。分析提供退款保证和决策顺序对均衡结果以及制造商开通直销渠道的影响。研究发现：在单一渠道供应链中,提供退款保证提高销量,制造商和零售商利润以及消费者剩余;在不提供退款保证情形下,制造商利润和零售商利润都随零售满意度递增;在提供退款保证情形下,制造商利润和零售商利润都随零售满意度先递减后递增;当直销渠道的成本较高时,制造商将不开通直销渠道;提供退款保证有利于制造商开通直销渠道。在双渠道供应链中：在顺序决策情形下,直销量随零售满意度递增,然而在同时决策情形下,直销量却随零售满意度递减;提供退款保证虽然降低零售商利润但能够提高消费者剩余,零售商利润随直销成本递增,在提供退款保证情形下,制造商利润和总利润随直销成本先递减后递增;当零售满意度较高,且直销成本也较高时,提供退款保证使制造商和零售商“双输”,当零售满意度较高,但直销成本较低时,提供退款保证使制造商和零售商达到(win-lose)。     

Alternative Mechanisms Guiding Salespersons’ Ambidextrous Product Selling

Ambidextrous product‐selling strategies, in which companies’ salespeople concurrently pursue the sale of existing and new products, are hard to implement. Previous studies have addressed this issue for relatively simple consumer settings with the manager in close proximity to the salespersons and focusing on different levels of control and autonomy to resolve this issue. However, little is known about how field salespeople can be influenced to pursue such dual goals proactively for more complex business‐to‐business products. In this study, the authors distinguish between salespeople's proactive selling behaviour for new and existing products, and study the impact of two alternative mechanisms: a situational mechanism (i.e. perceived manager product‐selling ambidexterity) and a structural mechanism (i.e. salesperson organizational identification). Using a time‐lagged, multisource data set from a large ambidextrous company, the authors demonstrate that both mechanisms contribute to salespeople's proactive selling of new and existing products, but also act as each other's substitutes. The results suggest two most likely strategies for salespeople to obtain overall sales targets: focusing on existing product selling; or acting ambidextrously. The latter approach offers the benefits of better achieving ambidextrous company sales goals and of greater performance stability, and is thus preferred.     

A Profit‐Maximizing Approach to Disposition Decisions for Product Returns*

Motivated by the asset recovery process at IBM, we analyze the optimal disposition decision for product returns in electronic products industries. Returns may be either remanufactured for reselling or dismantled for spare parts. Reselling a remanufactured unit typically yields higher unit margins. However, demand is uncertain. A common policy in many firms is to rank disposition alternatives by unit margins. We propose a profit‐maximization approach that considers demand uncertainty. We develop single period and multiperiod stochastic optimization models for the disposition problem. Analyzing these models, we show that the optimal allocation balances expected marginal profits across the disposition alternatives. A detailed numerical study reveals that our approach to the disposition problem outperforms the current practice of focusing exclusively on high‐margin options, and we identify conditions under which this improvement is the highest. In addition, we show that a simple myopic heuristic in the multiperiod problem performs well.     

Adolescents’ and Young Adults’ Online Risk Taking: The Role of Gist and Verbatim Representations

Young people are exposed to and engage in online risky activities, such as disclosing personal information and making unknown friends online. Little research has examined the psychological mechanisms underlying young people's online risk taking. Drawing on fuzzy trace theory, we examined developmental differences in adolescents’ and young adults’ online risk taking and assessed whether differential reliance on gist representations (based on vague, intuitive knowledge) or verbatim representations (based on specific, factual knowledge) could explain online risk taking. One hundred and twenty two adolescents (ages 13–17) and 172 young adults (ages 18–24) were asked about their past online risk‐taking behavior, intentions to engage in future risky online behavior, and gist and verbatim representations. Adolescents had significantly higher intentions to take online risks than young adults. Past risky online behaviors were positively associated with future intentions to take online risks for adolescents and negatively for young adults. Gist representations about risk negatively correlated with intentions to take risks online in both age groups, while verbatim representations positively correlated with online risk intentions, particularly among adolescents. Our results provide novel insights about the underlying mechanisms involved in adolescent and young adults’ online risk taking, suggesting the need to tailor the representation of online risk information to different age groups.     

基于评分用户可信度的信任模型分析与构建

本文从理论上证明,现有在线信誉系统的信任模型存在忽视评分用户信任度的缺陷,难以激励用户从事持续的诚实交易.针对此问题,本文构建了基于评分用户可信度的信任模型.理论分析表明,该模型可有效弥补现有信任模型的不足.     

基于分位数Granger因果的网络情绪与股市收益关系研究

 行为金融学理论认为,股票市场的价格变动除受宏观基本因素影响外,还在很大程度上受众多个体投资者或噪音交易者行为左右。中国股票市场拥有庞大的个人投资者群体,且股民群体与网民群体之间具有高度耦合性,使用网络情绪等信息能够探索中国股市收益变动基本规律。        为揭示个体投资者行为对股市收益的影响,以个体投资者情绪为视角,以网络环境中个体投资者的情绪信息为切入点,检验投资者情绪与股市收益的关联关系,评估网络情绪信息价值。使用中文文本情感分析方法,从新浪微博文本中提取出网络情绪时间序列;分别运用均值Granger因果和分位数Granger因果检验方法,探讨网络情绪波动与股市收益之间是否存在因果关系;将股票市场发展阶段进行细致划分,研究不同市场阶段下网络情绪波动与股市收益之间的因果关系。        对沪深300指数收益进行实证研究,结果表明,尽管在均值框架下网络情绪波动与股市收益之间因果关系并不明显,但基于分位数Granger因果分析却发现两者在极端分位点区间处存在广泛且显著的因果关系。数据显示,在40个因果关系检验中,分位数Granger因果检验的因果关系发现了23个显著的因果关系,发现率为57.5%,远高于均值Granger因果检验的7.5%。此外,股市收益受到网络情绪波动影响的程度和方式在不同市场阶段下有所不同。        研究结果具有一定的理论意义和应用价值。在一些特定分位点区间网络情绪波动对股市收益存在显著因果关系影响,这为在特定条件下股市收益的可预测性提供了佐证。网络情绪能够预测股市收益的尾部(上尾或下尾)行为特征,可以为金融风险防范提供决策参考。研究结果为股票市场的定价、收益预测和波动率估计等相关研究提供了新的研究思路,也为网络情绪信息使用提供了新的方向。     

网上拍卖中卖者声誉的非对称性研究

本文采用贝叶斯学习分析了网上拍卖中卖方声誉非对称现象产生的原因,并利用从淘宝网站收集的书画和书籍类物品的竞价数据,实证检验了卖方获得的好评次数与差评次数对拍卖物品成交概率和成交价格的影响。研究结果表明,买方对卖方的好评（差评）将增加（减少）新的买方对拍卖物品的预期价值,进而增加（减少）物品的成交概率和成交价格。此外,卖方所获差评的影响大于好评的影响,并且这种非对称性效应在容易辨别其质量的物品拍卖中更为明显。     

不对称信息下的易逝品退货物流协调运作研究

退货是当前企业面临的一个重要问题,越来越多的企业开始将退货物流外包给第三方物流企业。在由第三方物流企业和制造商构成的易逝品逆向物流系统中,第三方物流企业的退货处理速度直接影响制造商退货产品的收益,因此确定合适的退货处理速度,协调两者间的利益分配成为研究的重点。本文采用排队模型求出系统最优的退货处理速度,并讨论了影响最优处理速度的各个因素;最后通过构建信息甄别模型求出了在双方对第三方物流企业的成本类型存在信息不对称时,制造商的最优协调策略。     

指令不均衡与股票收益关系研究——基于大规模数据分位数回归的实证

在指令不均衡与股票收益关系研究中,常常遇到两个困难：第一,不同市场环境下,前者对后者存在异质影响;第二,往往涉及大规模数据处理。为此,运用大规模数据分位数回归的方法,一方面揭示不同分位点处指令不均衡对股票收益的异质影响,细致刻画两者之间关系;另一方面适应大规模数据建模要求,得到更为可靠的结果。以上证A股和深证A股为研究对象,通过大规模数据分位数回归方法,得到了比均值回归更多有用信息。实证结果表明：第一,在高分位点处,滞后1期指令不均衡对股票收益具有正向影响且呈现上升趋势,而在低分位点却具有负向影响;第二,控制当期指令不均衡后,滞后期指令不均衡对股票收益具有负向影响,且随着分位点的增加呈现下降趋势。这些结果意味着,指令不均衡对股票收益具有一定的解释能力和预测能力。     

The Impact of Product Returns and Retailer's Service Investment on Manufacturer's Channel Strategies*

We study the distribution channel decision of a manufacturer who considers whether to add an online channel (direct channel) to its brick‐and‐mortar retailer (indirect channel). The retailer faces the opportunity to invest in store assistance to help consumers choose products and thus reduce product returns. Special attention is given to the impact of product returns and retailer's store assistance investment on manufacturer's dual channel decision. We examine conditions under which the manufacturer uses dual channels and how various relevant factors affect its channel decision under two settings, depending on whether the retailer has its own online store or not. When the retailer does not have its online store, we find that (i) the addition of the direct channel raises the wholesale price; (ii) the direct channel addition hurts the retailer if the nonreplacement rate is low; (iii) the manufacturer has a lower incentive to add the direct channel when the retailer's service cost is lower or its returns reduction rate from service investment is higher; and (iv) the manufacturer should treat its own returns handling cost as a key factor in its channel structure decision. In addition, when the retailer operates an online store, we find that the manufacturer may have an incentive to add a direct channel such that both firms own direct channels.     

我国投资者情绪对股票收益影响——基于面板数据的研究

基于基金的资金流量构造投资者情绪指标,应用面板数据模型对我国投资者情绪与股票收益之间的关系展开研究,结果表明情绪对股票收益具有显著影响,其中乐观情绪的影响高于悲观情绪,而极端情绪在我国市场中具有独特的预测能力。利用行为金融学理论建立合理的情绪指标,可以作为预测市场未来波动的可靠指针,为我国证券投资者及监管者提供决策参考依据。     

消费者退货对在线零售商促销与合同设计的影响研究

针对由制造商和在线零售商组成的供应链系统,在存在消费者退货情形下,考虑在线零售商在线上渠道提供促销与退款保证服务,其中在线零售商促销成本为其私有信息,建立了信息不对称下的供应链博弈模型,研究了在线零售商的最优促销策略与供应链合同设计问题;进而分析了不对称信息对供应链均衡的影响,考察了退款保证对供应双方期望利润、信息价值以及消费者剩余的影响。研究发现,当制造商在决策合同参数(设计合同)时,需要在在线零售商信息租金与供应链系统绩效损失之间进行权衡;若满足一定条件,制造商和在线零售商之间进行谈判并能够实现信息共享而分享整个系统的利润;当退货产品总是会给供应链成员造成损失时,退款保证会导致制造商和零售商期望利润的损失,但在一定条件下却能提升消费者剩余。     

Returns to Education during the Reform of State‐owned Enterprises in Hunan,People’s Republic of China

The objective of this paper is to analyse the impact of education on personal earnings during the reform of state‐owned enterprises, comparing 1995 with 1998 in Hunan, China, using the Mincerian earnings equation method. The results show that the rates of return to education increased, indicating that human capital has been better rewarded as the reforms of the Chinese economic structure have progressed. Moreover, the findings show that primary education receives the highest returns, followed by tertiary education. Middle school education obtains the lowest rewards, reflecting the effects of the reform of state‐owned enterprises on middle school graduates on whom the unemployment impact of this change has been the greatest.     

线上营销渠道成员间关系管理研究:综述与展望

数字化背景下,企业与学者关注的问题逐渐从是否实施线上渠道战略,转向如何更好地实施线上渠道、递送更优的渠道价值。文章首先识别线上渠道成员关系结构;其次从线上渠道成员间关系管理的结构、过程与目标三个层面进行系统梳理与述评;最后对未来研究进行了展望。     

企业智力资本对供应商参与新产品开发影响关系的实证研究

供应商参与新产品开发（supplier involvement new productdevelopment,SINPD）已成为企业获得研发成功的重要合作方式。本文通过探索性因素分析提取影响SINPD的主因素,发现企业智力资本在其中发挥了特殊作用,并验证了SINPD的管理、企业间信任与承诺在智力资本影响SINPD关系中的中介效应。运用结构方程模型进行假设检验和路经分析,研究结果表明企业智力资本各因子选择性地影响了供应商参与NPD,即：关系资本对供应商参与具有直接积极影响,人力资本通过企业间信任与承诺对供应商参与具有间接促进作用,而组织资本对供应商参与NPD产生了反向作用,供应商参与对NPD短期和长期绩效有显著的积极影响。本文研究结论对于理解、解释我国企业的SINPD状况具有启发意义,为进一步探究SINPD的影响机理提供新的思路。     

基于“柠檬”理论的在线信誉反馈系统有效性研究

信任问题是困扰在线拍卖市场发展的瓶颈之一.在线信誉反馈系统在消除信息不对称性,解决在线拍卖市场逆向选择问题中发挥着重要的作用.首先分析在线拍卖市场中逆向选择问题产生的原因,而后基于"柠檬"理论,从更换交易对手的重复博弈角度分析在线信誉反馈系统中信誉运行模型,对在线拍卖市场的信誉运行机理进行分析.研究指出在线信誉反馈系统能激励卖家诚信交易,一定程度上降低逆向选择问题,为我国在线拍卖网站和网络卖家更好地实施网络声誉战略提供一个思路.