农村经济改革对生育率的影响——中山市永宁乡的调查报告

经济改革以来,仅短短的六年时间,从广阔的原野到僻远的山乡,整个广大农村欣欣向荣,经济生活和精神面貌都发生了深刻的变化。农村实行生产责任制后,生活富裕起来了,对农村生育率将产生什么影响?有的人认为,在当前生产力水平较低的情况下,农民只有靠劳动力多,才能发家致富,因此必然刺激生育率上升。这个结论是否具有普遍意义?影响生育率主要有那些因素?西方经济越发达的国家,生育率越低,这是已经证明了     

经济因素与生育率关系新探——来自西安市长安区农村的实地调查

经济因素对生育率具有重要的影响，但经济因素对生育率的影响是通过中间变量来实现的．笔者对西安市长安区农村调查所得数据做了分析，得出经济发展引发的宏观结构变化为生育率的下降提供了基本条件．而生养成本上升和农民的相对贫困既是抑制生育率上升的因素，也是生育率不能进一步下降的原因的结论。     

论子女的成本——收益关系与家庭生育决策

生育率的变动,既受宏观社会经济条件的影响,也受微观家庭经济状况所制约,因而,研究影响生育率变动的因素,必须兼顾宏观和微观两个方面。但在我国以往的研究中,从宏观方面研究的比较多,而从微观方面研究的甚少。实际上,家庭作为人口再生产的基本单位,对生育率的变动起着非常直接的作用。因而,从微观上研究制约生育率的因素,对于我国的计划生育工作有着十分重要的意义。     

中国生育率的地区差异及其政策选择

本文对中国妇女生育率的发展现况进行了客观的估计 ,分析了生育率及其地区差异的特点 ,从内容、可行性、合理性等不同角度对现行生育政策进行了审视 ,指出了现行生育政策条件下中国妇女生育率的发展趋势。面对社会经济和人口发展过程中面临的诸多人口问题与挑战 ,从是否需要调整、调整幅度与如何调整三方面对生育政策调整问题进行了深入的分析 ,讨论了各种可能的生育政策调整方案 ,并提出了自己的一些对策建议。     

生育理性和生育决策与我国低生育水平稳定机制的转变

自改革开放以来 ,我国人口生育率水平出现了迅速的转变 ,特别是 1 992年我国确立了市场经济为目标的经济改革以来 ,生育率水平更是进一步降低到更替水平以下。如果说 ,生育率的迅速转变是在国家计划生育政策干预下启动的 ,那么 ,在 1 990年代生育率的下降应该主要是社会和经济发展的结果。以市场经济为导向的经济改革和经济的迅速发展 ,已经为稳定我国城市地区人口低生育率水平提供了必要的经济条件 ,同时 ,制度、技术和文化等因素的变革已经为我国个人生育决策理性化创造了条件 ,低生育水平的稳定机制已经开始从政策控制为主转向群众自我控制为主的转变     

从两种模式的对比看乡镇企业发达地区的生育率转变机制

从两种模式的对比看乡镇企业发达地区的生育率转变机制朱宇近年来，生育率转变的社会经济机制已成为人口研究的重要课题。〔１〕在这方面的研究中，乡镇企业对农民生育观念转化和生育率下降的影响必须引起足够的重视。由于乡镇企业发展导致我国许多地区农村社会经济的巨...     

我国生育率转变的因素分析

七十年代以来,我国生育率发生持续转变,分析影响转变的主要因素,并对各因素的作用程度作出定量对比,对于预见生育率发展的未来趋势,进一步完善生育政策,具有战略意义。 一、从生育率的地区差别,看经济因素在生育率转变中的显著作用。 我国幅员辽阔,人口与资源分布不匀,各地经济发展也不平衡,对比各地总和生育     

中国生育率下降中的扩散效应:基于省级时序数据的研究

本文使用1950～2000年中国28个省的时序数据,分析了中国省级空间和时间生育率下降的扩散效应。分析结果表明,中国生育率下降中存在着扩散效应。空间扩散分析显示,持续的下降始于少数大城市和一些东部省份,随之是北部省份,而广大的西北和一些南部地区生育率转变较晚;时间扩散分析结果表明,省内生育率下降显示出比省间生育率变化更为明显的扩散效应,并且不同时期生育率下降的影响因素不同。扩散因素独立于社会经济因素,其促进和加强了社会经济和计划生育因素对中国生育率下降的影响。     

中国生育率转变的因素分析

阐述了中国生育率由传统的高出生率向近代的低出生率转变的原因,利用邦加兹生育率模式和多元回归分析分别对生育率转变的避孕、人工流产等生物人口学因素,以及都市人口比率、计划生育率等社会经济的因素进行了论述。     

低生育率陷阱:是事实还是神话?

20世纪80年代以后,欧洲国家生育率持续下降,一些国家生育率降到并持续保持极低的水平,这种现象引起了西方人口学界乃至大众的广泛关注,很多学者对欧洲持续的低生育率现象及其原因进行了探讨,其中最有影响的理论之一是鲁茨等人提出的低生育率陷阱。按照鲁茨等人的观点,一国总和生育率一旦降到1.5以下,就会产生一种低生育率自我强化机制,于是,生育率就如同掉进了陷阱,很难再回升到1.5以上。本文介绍了低生育率陷阱的概念和作为其理论核心的低生育率自我强化机制并从人口学机制、社会学机制和经济学机制分析了低生育率自我强化机制本身的缺陷,从理论上论证低生育率陷阱可能存在的问题,在这一基础上笔者结合近年来欧洲一些低生育率国家生育率回升的事实,认为低生育率陷阱究竟是事实还是神话,还需要进一步的理论证明和实践检验。     

Intermediate fertility variables and marital fertility rates

Summary Using relatively simple mathematical techniques, an analysis is made of a comprehensive reproductive model that describes the relationships between a set of intermediate fertility variables and the marital fertility rate. Two types of intermediate fertility variables are distinguished: (1) biological parameters and (2) control variables. A homogeneous model is outlined first. Next, this version is extended to include heterogeneity with respect to fecundability and coital rates. Tests of the model with data from two historical populations (i.e. Crulai, 1674-1742, and Tourouvre au Perche, 1665-1765) demonstrate that the model is, indeed, consistent with observed reproductive behaviour in actual populations.     

Relations between demographic parameters

The mean life-expectancy e describes the average prospective life-time of an individual aged zero. This parameter can be explicitly described in terms of the survivorship distribution of the population. The Malthusian parameter r represents the asymptotic growth rate of a population. This parameter can be implicitly expressed in terms of the net-maternity distribution. The parameters e and r incompletely incorporate the age-specific fertility and mortality pattern of a population; distinct populations may have the same growth rate but different net-maternity functions; distinct populations may be characterized by the same mean life expectation but may have different survivorship distributions. This article analyzes a class of parameters called the entropy of a population (Demetrius, 1974a) which distinguishes between net-maternity functions with the same growth rate and also mortality distributions with the same mean life expectation. This class of parameters measures the convexity of the fertility and mortality distributions. This paper analyzes the relations between the entropy parameter and the standard demographic parameters.     

Fertility of the Yi women in Liangshan]

An attempt is made to determine the causes for the high fertility rate of the Yi women in Liangshan, China. The Yi are one of China's 54 ethnic groups, the largest group of which are the Hans (making up 95% of China's population). The area surveyed was Liangshan Yi County, having a population of 1.4 million. The survey included Yi women between the ages of 13-29 and compared them on the basis of previously gathered fertility statistics dealing with 1st and 2nd marriages and changes in household arrangements. According to a 1980 report, 16.37% of 36,302 infants of Yi women were the 1st child, 20.33% were the 2nd, 19.05% were the 3rd, 16.55% were the 4th, and 27.36% were the 5th child. These figures show that the Yi women's fertility is still extremely high (and has been for the last 15 years). Their fertility rate is 3.03 times higher than that of the Han women and 1.5 times higher than the national average for women. Possible causes for this rate may be early marriage (the average age for marriage being 19), divorce, and remarriage, and changes in household arrangements (where married women cohabit with men other than their husbands). These findings indicate a great need for family planning in order to prevent further adverse effects on economic growth, living standards, and public health (e.g., malnutrition has been found among some babies).     

Japan's fertility: effects of contraception and induced abortion after World War II

This report studies the effects of contraception and abortion on crude birth rate (CBR) and total fertility rate (TFR) in Japan from 1947-1980. The CBR declined from 34.3 in 1947 to 17.3 in 1957, and the TFR from 4.5 to 2.0 in the same period. Both stabilized (CBR in the range of 17.0 to 19.0 and TFR at 2.0 to 2.1) between 1957 and 1973. This dramatic decline in fertility was initiated under the serious socioeconomic difficulties of post-World War II Japan. At the onset of the postwar fertility decline, fertility within marriage was controlled most strongly by induced abortion, and to a lesser extent, lactation and contraception. During the period of stable low fertility (1960-1980) the effect of abortion decreased and the effect of contraception increased. KAP surveys show that in the late 1970's more than 75% of contraceptive users in Japan employed the condom, while condom use in other Asian countries is generally very low. A shift from traditional to modern methods of contraception is unlikely to alter the already low level of fertility in Japan but would have considerable social, medical, and economic impact.     

中国人口生育变化及影响因素——基于第六次人口普查的分析

本文在"六普"汇总数据的基础上,定量分析中国人口的生育水平、生育模式的变化和生育变化的影响因素。研究发现,在生育水平持续下降的情况下,结构性因素逐渐成为左右未来中国生育水平走向的决定性因素;生育模式正在向初婚初育间隔扩大,生育孩次向低孩次集中的方向发展;尽管年龄别已婚生育率的变化使得中国一般生育率上升9.613%,在导致生育水平下降的各因素中,育龄妇女年龄结构、婚姻状态等人口因素的影响显得越来越重要。研究结果对于正确理解我国的人口形势,科学地规划和调整人口政策具有十分重要的意义。     

总和生育率影响因素实证研究

中国的计划政策三十多年的实施对控制人口数量起了积极的作用,也使中国人口结构和人口素质发生了巨大变化。本文通过对世界109个国家的经济、社会文化和其他数据共20项进行回归分析,建立了国家总和生育率的线形回归模型,并根据该模型估计出当前中国在无计划生育条件下的总和生育率。以此研究目前计划生育政策对我国总和生育率的影响,针对严峻的人口问题提出了相应政策建议。     

A Gompertz fit that fits: Applications to canadian fertility patterns

In this paper an attempt is made to refine the method of fitting the Gompertz function to the cumulative fertility rates by using iterative techniques. The method is tested with the historical data series for the Canadian population. The demographic implication of the parameters of the Gompertz function as fitted to the fertility distribution is examined, and the usefulness of the method in projecting future fertility trends is studied. The Makeham function is also fitted to the fertility distribution by the same iterative technique, and the relative efficiency of this function is compared with that of the Gompertz.     

An inquiry into expected lifetime fertility]

Expected lifetime fertility rate, or completed fertility rate, refers specifically to the cumulative fertility rate of a cohort of women after the age of reproducibility; however, in China's case, "reproduccibility" virtually ends after a woman gives birth to a 2nd child (assuming both children live). Hypothetical situations specific to China's system of family planning are presented and analyzed; statistical formulas and lifetime fertility rates (including allowances for violations of the e child policy), are provided.     

可持续发展与少数民族地区的计划生育政策--吉林延边朝鲜族与新疆维吾尔自治区少数民族低生育率比较研究

本文从计划生育的基本国策和2000年3月2日中共中央国务院颁布的《关于加强人口与计划生育工作稳定低生育水平的决定》(简称《决定》)出发,通过对我国人口生育水平的时间和空间分析,提出稳定低生育水平的工作难点关键是在少数民族地区。并以吉林延边朝鲜族和新疆少数民族生育水平为例,进行了比较研究,得出结论:对少数民族的计划生育优惠政策实际上是“好心照顾他,反到害了他”,只有降低生育率才更有利于少数民族地区的可持续发展。     

Fertility effects of the abolition of legal abortion in Romania

Abstract There is much interest to-day in governmental actions and regulations designed to have an effect on fertility. Widespread concern with the implications of population growth has led to unprecedented attention to the design and implementation of governmental policies intended to affect fertility. Unfortunately, there is very little empirical evidence of the effect of governmental action, largely because of the difficulty of interpreting the causal relations between changes in laws or programmes on the one hand, and fertility trends on the other. For this reason, the drastic alteration of the fertility laws in Romania in 1966 is of special interest in that it provides something approaching an experimental context for examining the effect of a legal code on fertility.