Modernization, globalization and the welfare state: a comparative analysis of old and new convergence of social insurance since 1930

Convergence of policies and institutions across countries has been a recurrent theme within social sciences. 'Old' and 'new' convergence hypotheses have been associated with changing concepts and catchwords, such as modernization, logic of industrialism, post-industrialism, post-Fordism and globalization, but share some underlying theoretical perspectives. The purpose of this paper is to analyse tendencies towards convergence of social insurance systems in 18 OECD countries between 1930 and 1990, a period which has seen our sample of countries develop from predominantly agricultural societies to industrial or post-industrial market democracies. Data from the Social Citizenship Indicator Program (SCIP) are used to examine the development of institutional variables within the various national social insurance systems. Sub-samples of larger and smaller countries are examined separately, in order to test the open-economy hypothesis that smaller countries, being more exposed to international pressures than larger ones, could be expected to show higher degrees of social protection and also more convergence. Hypotheses on differentiated institutional barriers against pressures from the processes of transnationalization of the economy, as well as possible convergence effects of the supra-national policy making within the European Union, are discussed in the last section.     

EVIDENCE FOR ELITE CONVERGENCE IN CROSS-NATIONAL HOMICIDE VICTIMIZATION TRENDS, 1956 TO 2000

The two dominant perspectives in cross-national comparative criminology (modernization and conflict) make competing predictions about the convergence of national crime rates over time. The modernization perspective predicts convergence in crime rates for all nations of the world whereas the conflict perspective predicts growing divergence between industrializing poor nations and highly industrialized rich nations. I also explore an intermediate possibility: that convergence is limited mostly to nations of the industrial elite. I use econometric methods to test for convergence and divergence in homicide victimization rates for 34 nations from 1956 to 2000. My results show the most support for an elite convergence model: although there are several examples of crime convergence among the nations in this study over time, all of these examples are drawn from the wealthy, highly industrialized nations.     

Testing the modernization hypothesis and the socialist ideology hypothesis: a comparative sibling analysis of educational attainment and occupational status

In this study, we present a comparative sibling analysis. This enables us to test two major social mobility hypotheses, i.e. the modernization hypothesis and the socialist ideology hypothesis. We employ survey data on brothers in England, Hungary, the Netherlands, Scotland, Spain, and the USA, covering a historical period from 1916 till 1990. Results show that the effects of parental social class on educational attainment are smaller in technologically advanced societies, and that the effects of parental social class on occupational status are smaller in social-democratic and communist societies. In addition, the total family impact on occupational status declines with modernization. But overall, we observe that the family of origin has not lost its importance for its sons' educational attainment and occupational status yet.     

Antidiscrimination measures of the 1960s and occupational mobility: Evidence for black American men

Based on an economywide index, I estimate that the occupational status of U.S. black men, relative to white men, rose an average of .5 percent per year over the 1965–1981 period. After accounting for pre-existing trends, education, and censoring supply factors, approximately 40 percent of the increase remains. I argue that these residual post– 1964 effects may be attributed to the antidiscrimination measures of the times, particularly Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Although there seems to be some cyclical censoring, I uncover no evidence in support of the secular censoring hypothesis that observed post– 1964 black male occupational progress results largely from black male labor supply declines. I assign about one-half of the 21 percent relative earnings gains by black men during 1965–1981 to occupational mobility. Compared with previous findings for black women, however, the results suggest substantially lower gains for black men. In addition, occupational advancement appears to explain a much smaller proportion of the earnings increases for black men than for black women. An earlier version of this paper was revised while the author was Visiting Associate Professor at the Department of Economics and the Frederick Douglass Institute, University of Rochester, New York. Useful comments were provided by members of the Institute and the Department of Economics. Grant support by the Oakland University Research Committee and the School of Business Administration is gratefully acknowledged.     

THE EFFECTS OF SPANISH‐LANGUAGE BACKGROUND ON COMPLETED SCHOOLING AND APTITUDE TEST SCORES

We investigate the effect of speaking Spanish at home as a child on completed schooling and aptitude test scores using data from the NLSY79 on Hispanics who grew up in the United States. We model the accumulation of traditional human capital and English fluency, leading to the joint determination of schooling and test scores. We find that speaking Spanish at home reduces test scores, but has no significant effect on completed schooling. The reduction in test scores (1) increases in magnitude in three of the tests when the parents are more educated; (2) is much more dramatic when the choice of home language is made endogenous; and (3) is not systematically greater for the verbal than for the math tests. (JEL I20, J15)     

Conformity and change: community effects on female genital cutting in Kenya

In this article, I analyze women's decisions to have their daughters circumcised based on data from 7,873 women in Kenya collected in the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey. I use multilevel models to assess the degree to which women s decisions are correlated with the decisions of other women in their community, in addition to studying the effects of socioeconomic characteristics measured at both the individual and community levels. I find some support for modernization theories, which argue that economic development leads to gradual erosion of the practice of female circumcision. However, more community-level variation is explained by the convention hypothesis, which proposes that the prevalence of female circumcision will decline rapidly once parents see that a critical mass of other parents have stopped circumcising their daughters. I also find substantial variation among different ethnic groups in the pace and onset of the decline of female genital cutting.     

International Nongovernmental Organizations and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Developing World: A Quantitative, Cross-National Analysis

This quantitative, cross-national study is designed to test hypotheses linking the activities of international nongovernmental organizations to reductions in carbon dioxide emissions in the developing world. While many quantitative studies of variation in carbon dioxide emissions have been published, none have included a control for the presence of international nongovernmental organizations. We review the literature that discusses the many ways that international nongovernmental organizations work to reduce environmental degradation in developing nations. We then conduct a panel regression analysis in which we include a variable to estimate the effects of international nongovernmental organizations on carbon dioxide emissions while including variables suggested by other relevant theoretical perspectives. Our findings are quite clear in that nations with high levels of international nongovernmental organization presence have lower levels of carbon dioxide emissions than nations with low levels of international nongovernmental organization presence. We also find support for the ecological modernization hypothesis pertaining to the existence of an environmental Kuznet's curve between the level of economic development and level of carbon dioxide emissions.     

Exploring the Unknown: Predicting the Responses of Publics not yet Surveyed

This article argues that cultural change is roughly predictable: to a large extent, it is shaped by a few variables included in a model of cultural modernization that is presented here. The beliefs and values of a society's people are also affected by unique world events and country-specific factors that would not fit into a general model, such as a given society's political parties and leaders, so our predictions will not be precisely accurate. Nevertheless, in this article we will stick our necks out and predict the locations on two major cultural dimensions of all the countries likely to be included in the next wave of the World Values Survey, to be carried out in 2005–2006. Using a simple predictive model based on our revised version of modernization theory, we first ‘predict’ and test the positions that 80 societies should have on a two major dimensions of cross-cultural variation in the most recent wave of surveys (carried out in 1999–2001); we find that our predictions are surprisingly accurate: the average prediction for a given country falls within a small radius of the location that is actually observed on the cross-cultural map (specifically: the average prediction and the actual location fall within a circle that occupies less than two percent of the map's area). We then use this same model to predict the survey responses that we expect to find for 120 countries that are most likely to be surveyed in the next wave of surveys, in 2005–2006. Almost half of these countries have not been included in our previous surveys (and a number have never been covered in any survey of which we are aware). These are genuine blind predictions – which we believe is an important challenge for social scientists. Our predictions will not be exactly correct; in some cases, they will not even be in the right ballpark. But we are confident that in the great majority of cases, they will come much closer to the observed results than would random guesses. We are confident that these a priori predictions will be reasonably close to the results obtained from actual fieldwork, because analysis of data from more than 60 societies surveyed in previous waves of the World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys indicates that cross-cultural differences in basic values have a surprisingly consistent relationship with economic development. The values and beliefs of mass publics vary a great deal cross-nationally, but they tend to vary in a roughly predictable way that can be derived from a revised version of modernization theory.     

Entwurf einer Theorie religiös-säkularer Konkurrenz

This article presents the basic elements of a theory of religious secular competition. The theory claims that individuals in many societies may choose between religious and secular options, creating a situation of competition between religious and secular organizations. The paper assumes (bounded) rationality for individuals and organizations and describes religious and secular organizations, religious and secular goods, as well as three important parameters that influence religious secular competition: regulation of supply, regulation of demand and level of societal modernization. The theory of religious secular competition explains a whole range of different phenomena, such as variations in church going in US states, variation in the attractivity of monasteries, the late secularization of Ireland, the strong religiosity of agrarian societies or the success of megachurches since the 1960s.     

Suicide and Religion: A Comparative Analysis

Abstract

Previous work on the relationship between religion and suicide has focused on the simple bivariate relationship and has failed to address the problem of the possible convergence between Catholicism and Protestantism in the underlying determinant of suicide, the degree of social integration. The present study explores the relationship more systematically through a series of multiple regression analyses. The lack of any significant relationship between the proportion Catholic and measures of the suicide rate supports the convergence hypothesis. In contrast, two control variables taken from other prominent theories of suicide have considerable explanatory power. Tests of Durkheim's theory of marital integration and suicide all confirm a significant relationship but one of a parabolic form. Finally, the paradigm connecting the level of industrialization to suicide is confirmed, but preliminary analysis of social mobility rates and suicide indicate that this relationship is more of a function of cultural heterogeneity produced by the modernization process than of increasing mobility rates.     

Cross-National Differences in Academic Achievement: Why the United States Lags behind Other Rich Nations

This article tests the hypothesis that national differences in academic achievement scores of 15-year-olds in 25 developed nations in 2003, 2006, and 2009 can be explained by national differences in national health and family economic security programs, levels of parental education, and national differences in motivation to strive for high levels of academic achievement. We also test for the additional impact, if any, of national differences in educational system characteristics. We then ask what variables account for the low scores of American students on math, science, and reading achievement tests. More highly developed national family health and economic security programs and higher student levels of motivation for academic achievement in other rich countries help explain why scores in the United States are relatively low. Low academic qualifications and prestige for teachers and a lack of national educational goals also differentiate the United States from nations with higher achievement scores.     

Statistical Explanation in Cross-cultural Research: a Comparison of the Utility of Linear and Curvilinear Correlation

Data from 483 societies included in the Ethnographic Atlas were used to compare the relative utility of linear ( r ) and curvilinear (Eta) correlation models in cross-cultural research. The societies included in the sample were selected in accordance with the procedures recommended by Murdock. The variables included in the study were selected so as to represent four important areas of evolutionary theory: energy supply (agricultural levels), differentiation (class stratification and the division of labor used in metal working, weaving, and pottery making), societal scale (mean size of local communities and settlement pattern), and integrative mode (central states). In addition to supporting the hypothesis that energy supply, differentiation, societal scale, and integrative mode are interrelated, the results indicate that the linear correlation model, r , frequently results in underestimations of the true strength of relationship between variables. It is suggested that comparativists should regularly test for curvilinear relationships in order to avoid possible errors in estimation.     

A cross-cultural test of the situational bias hypothesis : The israeli scene

The major aim of this study was to test the commonly held assumption, within the Israeli educational context, that the relatively poor mean performance of disadvantaged students on conventional ability tests is due, in part, to extraneous situational factors, systematically disadvantageous to their test performance. To that end, two controlled field experiments were conducted on independent samples of N = 288 and N = 48 elementary school pupils, respectively. The first experiment centered on the interaction between sociocultural group characteristics and each of two situational factors, namely, test atmosphere and examiner status, in affecting ability test performance. The second experiment explored the effects of test atmosphere per se on the nonverbal ability test scores of disadvantaged pupils. On the whole, this research provides evidence inconsistent with the situational bias hypothesis and does not support the assumption that disadvantaged children's ability test scores can be substantially improved by manipulating test atmosphere conditions. In view of the evidence showing that situational variables do not significantly bias testing results in favor of one group over another, it follows that current educational evaluation policies in Israel, relying heavily on the standardized ability tests results of disadvantaged groups, need not be changed.     

Cointegration and Structural Change: An Application to the U.S. Demand for Money

I perform the cointegration tests for the trivariate model of real monetary aggregates, real personal income, and short‐term interest rate. I find the existence of a long‐run relationship among these three variables. To check the stability of a long‐run money demand relationship, I implement a rank constancy test and CUSUM test. The test results show that real M1 is relatively more stable than other aggregates, but structural change occurred during the 1970s and early 1980s. This is consistent with prior research on money demand.     

Are Political Freedoms Converging?

This article tests for convergence of freedom using Freedom House's (2002) indices of political rights and civil liberties in 136 countries from 1972 to 2001. Time-series tests, using structural breaks, are employed to test for stochastic and β-convergence. Cross-section tests are performed to examine the impact of legal systems, education, natural resources, economic freedom, and other variables. We find that political freedoms are converging for one-half of the countries. Additionally, we find that the level of freedom is significantly related to the legal system, education, economic freedom, and natural resources. (JEL O57 , O40 , C3 )     

THE SEX RATIO AND WOMEN'S INVOLVEMENT IN CRIME: A CROSS-NATIONAL ANALYSIS

By extending an influential theory relating societal-level sex ratios to women's life circumstances (Guttentag and Secord 1983), this article formulates hypotheses linking the sex ratio with three dimensions of women's involvement in crime: (1) women's victimization, (2) the protection given to women by the criminal justice system, and (3) women's criminal offending. These hypotheses are then tested with data from approximately 60 countries. The results suggest that a relative undersupply of women (i.e., a high sex ratio) decreases significantly women's criminal offending rate (as indicated by the ratio of female–to–male arrest rates for theft). The hypothesis that the sex ratio increases the protection from crime afforded women (as indicated by the percent of rape cases solved by police) receives guarded support. These findings accord with the sex-ratio thesis, which suggests that in high sex-ratio societies women will be highly valued and their roles limited to the family, where opportunities to commit property crimes are minimal. Contrary to our hypothesis, however, the sex ratio does not significantly influence the female homicide victimization rate. Finally, the level of socioeconomic development, as measured by a multi-item index, is shown to have a substantial influence on sex differences in homicide victimization and theft offending.     

Algorithms for resource allocation of substance abuse prevention funds based on social indicators: a case study on state of Florida--Part 3

The purpose of Part 3 is to develop an algorithm for an equitable distribution of state prevention funds to its substate jurisdictions based on the need for prevention services. In this series, the need for prevention services is measured in terms of the existing social indicators observed at the county level. In order to establish a conceptual link as well as the empirical relevance of the selected social indicators as proxy measurements of the estimated need for prevention at the county level, we have employed both concurrent and construct validity tests using the following three constructs as the criterion variables in a multiple regressing setting: 1) county-based composite drug use index score (COMDRUG) measured via the statewide drug survey; 2) county-based proportions of prevention target populations using the conceptual definition advanced by the Institute of Medicine (IOM); and 3) the composite risk factor score (COMRISK) assembled from a list of twenty-two risk and protective factors observed for each county. These constructs were identified previously in Parts 1 and 2. While employing eight social indicators to estimate the overall prevention needs observed at the county level, the social indicators thus selected were able to explain 69 percent of the variations in COMDRUG, 68 percent of the variation in the proportions of students in need of prevention services using IOM definition, and 60 percent of the variation in COMRISK. Following successful validations of the social indicators as viable media with which to estimate county-based prevention needs, the ensuing multiple regression equation is, then, used to build a resource allocation model by determining the proportion of each county's share of the total statewide COMDRUG-predicted from the social indicators and, then, by weighting the latter proportion by the population size of each county under age eighteen. In this way, we have devised county-based Prevention Needs Index (PNI) scores based solely on social indicators. Finally, the county's share of PNI score is computed as a proportion of to the total statewide PNI score. Following this line of algorithm for resource allocation, we were able to develop yet another resource allocation model solely based on social indicators without the benefits of survey data. Comparing the funding results originating from four resource allocation models (i.e., COMDRUG, IOM Definition, COMRISK, and Social Indicators), it has been learned that there is a remarkable similarity from one funding level to another. Since all four schedules of county-based prevention funding levels have shown very high intercorrelations with a range from .9862 to .9993, it has been determined that these schedules are measuring essentially either the same domain or latent domains that are functionally equivalent to one another. Accordingly, no preference is made among the resource allocation models suggested, although it is suggested that the final decision on the level of funding must be based on the selection of the schedule for resource allocation rather than the suggested amount or level of funding computed for each county.     

Reconsidering union wage effects: Surveying new evidence on an old topic

I examine evidence on private sector union wage gaps in the United States. The consensus opinion among labor economists of an average union premium of roughly 15 percent is called into question. Two forms of measurement error bias downward standard wage gap estimates. Match bias results from Census earnings imputation procedures that do not include union status as a match criterion. Downward bias is roughly equal to the proportion of workers with imputed earnings, currently about 30 percent. Misclassification of union status causes additional attenuation in union gap measures. This bias has worsened as private sector density has declined, since an increasing proportion of workers designated as union are instead nonunion workers. Corrections for misclassification and match bias lead to estimated union gaps substantially higher than standard estimates, but with less of a downward trend since the mid 1980s. Private sector union gaps corrected for these biases are estimated from the CPS for 1973–2001. The uncorrected estimate for 2001 is .13 log points. Correction for match bias increases the gap to .18 log points; further correction for misclassification bias, based on an assumed 2 percent error rate, increases the gap to .24. Reexamination of the skill-upgrading hypothesis leads to the conclusion that higher union gap estimates are plausible. The conventional wisdom of a 15 percent union wage premium warrants reexamination.     

General assistance among U.S. cities: A test of alternative hypotheses

Using 1980 census data, this study seeks to explain variations in race‐specific measures of general assistance among 109 U.S. cities. Four hypotheses (derived from developmental, conflict, and human ecological theories) are developed as potential explanations of welfare recipiency rates and payment levels. Three control variables (southness, population size, and education) are included in the analysis. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis reveals that for blacks, poverty, level of manufacturing employment (1970–1980), and southness are significant predictors of recipiency rates; whereas per capita revenue, segregation, southness, and population size are significant predictors of mean payment. For whites, poverty, percent white, and southness are significant predictors of welfare rates; whereas per capita revenue, percent white, segregation, and southness are significant predictors of mean payment. The analysis provides partial support for the need hypothesis in explaining General Assistance recipiency with respect to both races. It also provides moderate support for the segregation hypothesis and weak support for the functional transformation hypothesis in explaining General Assistance recipiency for blacks.     

Social capital and household income distributions in the United States: 1980, 1990

This paper asked if changes in social capital influence the level and disparity of household income in the United States. Social capital is defined in this paper as one's sympathy (antipathy) for others and one's idealized self. Changes in social capital are expected to produce the following economic consequences. First, increases in social capital are expected to alter the terms of trade and to increase the likelihood of trades between friends and family. Second, increases in social capital are expected to increase an economic agent's concerns for the external consequences of his or her choices, internalizing what otherwise would be considered externalities. Third, increases in social capital between firms are expected to increase the likelihood that they will act in their collective interest. Fourth, increases in social capital are expected to increase the opportunities for specialization and the likelihood of trade. Finally, increases in social capital are expected to raise the average level of income and reduce the disparity of income.This paper empirically tested the relationship between changes in social capital indicator variables and changes in the average and coefficient of variation (CVs) of household income. State CVs and averages of household income were calculated for all 50 states and for different races/ethnic groups using the U.S. Census data for 1980 and 1990. Social capital indicator variables selected to measure changes in social capital included measures of family integrity including the percentages of households headed by a single female with children; educational achievement variables including high school graduation rates; crime rate variables including litigation rates; and labor force participation rates. The social capital indicator variables appeared to be significantly correlated with each other. However, in 1980, the percentages of households headed by a single female with children was not significantly related to the birth rates of single teens. By 1990, however, a strong correlation was found between the percentages of households headed by a single female with children and the birth rate of single teens.Income inequality among U.S. households measured using CVs increased between 1980 and 1990 in all 50 states. The largest increase in CVs was among white households. The smallest increase in CVs was among Asian households. The states with the largest increase in the ratio of 1990 and 1980 CVs were Arizona, Wyoming, Maine, Vermont, and Texas. Half of the states reported decreases in real household income between 1980 and 1990. Those states with the largest percentage decrease in real income were Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, and West Virginia. The largest percentage increase in real income was reported by Connecticut, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.State CVs and averages of household income were regressed on four factors or subsets of social capital indicator variables. The four factors used to predict CVs and averages of household income were generally statistically significant. The findings of this report support the conclusion that changes in social capital have a significant effect on the disparity and level of household income.