“I Pay Enough Taxes Already!” Applying Economic Voting Models to Environmental Referendums*

Objectives. Models of economic voting have rarely been applied to referendum votes. We fill this gap by testing citizens' voting behavior on environmental policy in relation to their perception of the business cycle and general orientation toward politics. Thus, the study examines the personal, institutional, and economic determinants of vote choice on 36 environmental bills from 1983 to 2004 in Switzerland. Methods. We apply a logistic hierarchical model, where individual characteristics on Level 1 are nested within contextual determinants situated on Level 2. Results. We confirm the crucial importance of the individual‐level variables education, political affinity, car ownership, and urbanity. Classifying the electorate into five groups, using open‐ended survey questions about respondents' reasons for approval or dismissal of the bills, allows for finer hypotheses testing. We show that the individuals' positive perception of their personal current economic condition has a positive effect on the likelihood of supporting the proposals. In turn, we prove the negative, constraining effect of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions on approval rates. Conclusions. By applying economic voting models to referendum analyses we advance the understanding of citizens' vote choice on environmental ballots, we show the role of context, and we propose an original typology of voters' general orientation toward politics.     

¿Amigo de la Raza? Reexamining Determinants of Latino Support in the U.S. Congress*

Objectives. This study updates and extends research on substantive Latino representation in the U.S. Congress. An improved method of measuring “Latino interests” is proposed. Methods. Using a scorecard from the National Hispanic Leadership Agenda as the dependent variable, standard OLS regression is employed to determine the variables that best predict how members of the 108th Congress vote on issues that are salient to the Latino community. Results. The findings indicate that Latinos are substantively represented overwhelmingly by Democrats and those from majority‐Democratic districts or states, while religion and level of constituency poverty also play a notable role. Conclusion. This study adds strong support to the “party as a substantive representative” model of minority representation. It also shows that Latinos are not more likely to be substantively represented by fellow Latinos, nor do larger Latino constituencies affect a lawmaker's propensity to vote in favor of Latino interests.     

Economic Determinants of Voting in an Era of Union Decline*

Objective. The objective of this article is to test competing hypotheses regarding union vote effects by economic sector. Overlooked in existing research on political participation and the labor movement is de‐unionization's sectoral dimension: declining union rolls is a private‐sector phenomenon. The sectoral dimension of union decline carries important political consequences if the influence of unions on voter turnout varies by sector. Method. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) November Voting and Registration Supplements for all national elections between 1984 and 2006, I estimate union vote effects for public‐ and private‐sector employees. Results. The results of the analyses reveal that while union members continue to vote at higher rates than otherwise similar nonmembers, the union effect is nearly three times as large for private‐sector members: private‐sector unionists have a predicted probability of voting 6.7 points higher than nonmembers, while public‐sector members have a predicted probability of voting only 2.4 points higher than nonmembers. Conclusions. Given the small fraction of private‐sector workers now in labor unions, recent fluctuations in the unionization rate have little aggregate affect on turnout. Given that private‐sector union members tend to be less educated and earn less than their public‐sector counterparts, the near disappearance of private‐sector unions from the economic landscape removes an important institutional buffer against political inequality in the United States.     

Anglo Voting on Nativist Ballot Initiatives: The Partisan Impact of Spatial Proximity to the U.S.‐Mexico Border*

Objective. In this study, we examine how contextual factors influence voting behavior on nativist ballot initiatives using California's Propositions 187 and 227. We argue that spatial proximity to the border is associated with voting behavior on nativist initiatives. Methods. To examine the influence of environmental factors on Anglo voting behavior on nativist ballot initiatives, we utilize California Field Polls, U.S. Census data, and spatially referenced data generated using GIS software. Results. The results indicate that spatial proximity to the border is an important component in individual‐level voting on nativist initiatives and that the impact of proximity to the border on the vote for Propositions 187 and 227 varies as a function of individual‐level partisan affiliation. Conclusions. These findings hold implications for future research regarding the influence of geospatial boundaries and political behavior.     

Sex and the Statehouse: The Effects of Gender on Legislative Roll‐Call Voting*

Objective. This analysis examines whether differences exist between women and men state legislators in their roll‐call voting behavior involving matters of economic and regulatory policy. Methods. Using interest group rating scores, I examine the voting behavior of representatives in the lower houses of 28 states in legislative sessions from 1995 to 2000. By controlling for a host of variables related to legislators (political party, years of service, etc.) and their districts (average income, level of education, urbanization, etc.), I am able to isolate the independent effect of gender on roll‐call voting. Results. The findings demonstrate that among Democratic legislators women are less conservative than men, but among Republican lawmakers women are slightly more conservative than men. Additional analyses show that many factors that influence legislative voting by women and men are similar; however, political party has a more prominent effect among women. Conclusion. Although factors such as political party and some constituency characteristics exert a much stronger influence than gender, women and men legislators differ in their roll‐call voting even when controls for a wide assortment of individual‐ and district‐level conditions are taken into account.     

Ideology and Social Position in Poland: The Determinants of Voting for the Right, 1991–2005*

Objective. The far Right's rise to power in Poland in 2005 left many observers curious about the relationship between conditions of rising inequality, recent E.U. accession, and the changing resonance of right‐wing ideology. This study analyzes Polish voting patterns over the 1991–2005 period in order to determine the effects of ideological and social‐structural variables on political behavior in a postsocialist context. Methods. The study employs bivariate analysis to assess the persistence or novelty of associations between conservative ideologies and right‐wing voting throughout a period of macro‐structural change. The data are drawn from the Polish General Social Survey. Results. The analysis indicates that by 2001, three ideological factors became newly correlated with voting for the Right: religious traditionalism, anti‐Communism, and free market values. Structurally, Poles with more years of education were the new base of party support by 2001. Conclusions. Contrary to expectations, postsocialism's economic “losers”—those with less education, less income, the unemployed—were not more likely to turn to the Right. Middle‐class interests began to have greater political influence by the end of this period, a conclusion that seems supported by more recent election outcomes.     

Race and Environmental Voting in the U.S. Congress

Objective. This article examines long-term trends in the environmental voting behavior in Congress and attempts to identify the factors that account for racial differences in voting patterns. Methods. Hypotheses about the various possible influences on environmental voting behavior are tested using longitudinal analyses and path analysis techniques. Results. Findings indicate African American members of Congress have been consistently more supportive of proenvironment legislation than either Republican or Democrat colleagues from 1981 to 1998. The data further suggest that much of these overall differences are explained by an especially large racial gap in proenvironmental voting among members from the South. Although such a gap among members from outside the South is eliminated by controlling for ideology and other variables, it remains substantial among Southern members. Conclusions. Based on the strong and consistent support for environmental legislation by African American members of Congress in the past, we expect significant racial differences in environmental voting to endure. Although results suggest that ideology plays a partial role in explaining such differences, future research will be needed to identify the reasons for the especially large racial gap in proenvironmental voting among members from the South. Given the growth in their numbers, their relatively safe seats, and their potential to chair important committees as they gain seniority, we expect African American legislators to play an increasingly important role in shaping and deciding the fate of national environmental policy in the future.     

Are Naturalized Voters Driving the California Latino Electorate? Measuring the Effect of IRCA Citizens on Latino Voting*

Objectives. The 1990s witnessed the growth and maturation of the Latino electorate in California and many scholars have posited as to the reasons. One argument is that naturalizations by way of the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) drove the increases in Latino participation. In this article we investigate the extent to which this is the case. Methods. Using unpublished INS data, we offer the first empirical test of the IRCA theory by examining Latino IRCA petitions by zipcode to determine whether or not IRCA legalizations and subsequent naturalizations were the force behind increased Latino turnout, and the overall growth of the Latino vote. We merge IRCA data with Registrar of Voter data to examine real growth in the Latino vote at the zipcode level from 1996–2000 in southern California. Results. Although Latino voting grew substantially, we find that IRCA naturalizations did not spur the increases in Latino voting in the 1990s as some have expected. Instead, demographic and mobilization variables explain why the Latino vote grew between 1996 and 2000. Conclusions. As Congress debates new proposals to “legalize” the millions of undocumented immigrants living and working in this country, many will inevitably ask what impact their citizenship will have on the electorate. This study sheds some light on the relationship between amnesty programs, citizenship, and voting among Latinos.     

From the suburbs to the house: The metropolitan–rural population and the success of women candidates

We analyze the voting behavior of metropolitan and rural residents in relation to women's legislative representation. Examining election data on the U.S. House and all lower state houses, we find that the greater the metropolitan population in a legislative district, the more likely it is to be represented by a woman. We extrapolate from these findings that the modern increase in women's representation can be attributed in part to the rural-to-suburban shift in population and legislative seats.     

Third‐Party Candidates and the 2000 Presidential Election*

Objective. This article examines how third‐party candidates influenced the 2000 presidential election. Methods. Two surveys provide information on a hypothetical election between only George Bush and Al Gore. The determinants of voting behavior in this election are then used to estimate how votes cast for third‐party candidates would have been partitioned between Bush, Gore, and abstentions had the other candidates dropped out of the race. Results. The estimates suggest that the Ralph Nader votes would have gone primarily to Gore (giving him the win in Florida) while Bush would have received more of the Pat Buchanan votes. The results also show that Nader's presence in the race gave Gore an incentive to position himself farther to the left ideologically. Bush's ideological position was not affected by Buchanan's participation. Conclusion. The third‐party candidates' participation was a critical factor in George Bush's Electoral College victory over Al Gore.     

Language Choice,Residential Stability,and Voting Among Latino Americans*

Objective. Students of political behavior have often found that the primary use of languages other than English impedes many forms of political participation in the United States. We develop expectations about how language choice operates with social context to influence an individual's decision to vote. Although choosing to speak a language other than English—in this case, Spanish—may affect the amount of political information individuals have at their disposal, this choice also represents their access to social and community resources that enable, rather than impede, political participation. Methods. We examine the voting behavior of Latinos, almost entirely Mexican Americans, living in south Texas counties on the U.S. border and reconsider the consequences of language choice for political behavior. Results. Controlling for past residential tenure, we find that Spanish‐speaking Latinos will be more likely to vote than English‐speaking Latinos. Conclusions. The establishment of ties to an ethnic group in a majority‐minority context over time mitigates the negative relationship between the use of Spanish as a primary language and voting.     

Candidates and Competition: Variability in Ideological Voting in U.S. Senate Elections*

Objectives. In choosing candidates to support in congressional elections, voters consider both policy and nonpolicy factors. However, the relative importance of incumbency or presidential approval versus candidates' ideological platforms likely varies across elections. Specifically, stiffer electoral competition should encourage ideology‐based voting because candidate information is more plentiful. In contrast, incumbents' ability to garner votes simply by virtue of already holding office should depress proximity voting in elections with incumbents. Methods. Using data from the 1988–1992 Pooled Senate Election Study, I estimate logistic regression models of individual vote choice. Results. I find that open‐seat elections do promote the use of candidate ideological proximity in the voting calculus but that the effects of election competitiveness are less clear. Conclusions. The findings have important implications for normative democratic theory, for our constitutional framework, and for elite behavior and aggregate‐level electoral outcomes.     

How far does the gender gap extend?: Decision making on state Supreme Courts in Fourth Amendment Cases, 1980–2000

The importance of women on the bench and the influence of gender on judicial decision making has garnered much scholarly attention. We examine the voting behavior of male and female justices in 718 Fourth Amendment search and seizure votes cast on state Supreme Courts between 1980 and 2000. We find that women justices, controlling for institutional, political, and legal constraints, are more likely to rule in favor of the criminal defendant than their male brethren in cases decided after 1991 but not before. We also find women justices serving with female colleagues are more inclined to render liberal votes. We conclude the influence of gender may be evident in a wider variety of cases than those dealing with women's lives but that this influence is dependent upon the existence of a critical mass of women on the state court benches.     

Listen to What I Say,Not How I Vote: Congressional Support for the President in Washington and at Home*

Objectives. Are legislators' party affiliations or is district partisanship the greatest predictor of legislative support of the president? Do members of the U.S. House emphasize different policy positions when casting roll calls than when communicating their positions to constituents? We theorize that party is less important in legislators' district‐oriented behavior than in roll‐call voting. When casting roll calls, legislators are agents facing multiple principals, namely, political party leaders and their district constituencies. When engaging in district‐oriented behavior, the only key principal is the legislator's constituency. Methods. We analyze legislators' positions on roll calls and in platforms. Platforms are examined with a unique data set of franked mass mailings sent by House members. Linear and limited dependent variable models are employed. Results. Our findings show that constituency preferences are a more consistent predictor of legislative support for the president when analyzing legislators' platforms, and that political party has a relatively limited effect. When analyzing roll‐call votes, party is the key predictor. Conclusions. Political parties may be interested in what legislators do as opposed to what they say. The platform findings are in contrast to most recent empirical work examining position taking, though consistent with the canonical works of Mayhew and Fenno. This has implications for theories of parties in Congress that tie party behavior in the legislature to partisanship in the electorate.     

移民的呼声——户籍如何影响了公共意识与公共参与

本文利用CGSS2010的调查数据,考察了户籍身份对城市居民公共意识与公共参与的影响。研究发现,户籍身份对移民的公共意识有一定的负面影响,这种影响并没有随着移民收入或教育水平的提高而明显减弱。在公共参与方面,移民表现得更为消极,其中部分原因是由于现有制度对他们的公共参与形成制约。但在群体性事件参与和面临政府不公对待的态度方面,不同户籍身份人群之间却没有显著的差异。虽然收入水平或教育水平更高的居民的确具有更强的公共意识,但并不明显具有更高的公共参与度。     

Politics,Pragmatism, and Departures from the U.S. Courts of Appeals, 1954–2004*

Objective. This article uses Cox proportional hazards models to explain departures from the U.S. Courts of Appeals from 1954–2004. I argue that reforms to pension eligibility and financial incentives in 1984 extended opportunities for voluntary departures and strategic behavior, and that reasons for quitting (whether political, personal, or institutional) differed among types of departures and over time. Methods. The data represent all judge‐years from 1954–2004. Both the full period and 1954–1983 and 1984–2004 subperiods are examined. Results. The effects of political factors are limited to partial retirements and suggest judges' recognition of contentious confirmation politics since the 1980s. Personal and institutional variables dominate outright departures. Conclusions. Explanations for departures from the circuit bench differ both by type and over time. Scholars and policymakers should refine arguments regarding judicial turnover and its causes.     

Distance,Turnout, and the Convenience of Voting*

Objectives. This research examines how distance factors into the costs associated with political participation. We hypothesize that the political geography of a voter's residence affects not only the likelihood that he or she will vote, but whether the voter will choose between traditional Election Day voting or nontraditional means, such as casting an absentee ballot by mail, or going to an early‐voting site. Methods. Using a geographic information system (GIS), we calculate Manhattan‐block distances between voter residences and their respective precinct and nearest early‐voting sites in Clark County, NV for the 2002 mid‐term election. We then use these calculated distances to predict, with multinomial logistic regression, the likelihood of nonvoting, precinct voting, and nontraditional voting. Results. Our evidence suggests that the cost of traveling to reach a traditional voting site is associated with nonvoting to a point, but the relationship between distance and participation is nonlinear. Distance to traditional voting sites is also highly associated with choosing to vote by mail. Would‐be nonvoters are more inclined to use proximate election‐day sites than proximate early‐voting sites, probably because they decide to vote so late in the campaign. Conclusions. Our findings have important implications for democratic theory, ongoing efforts to reform the electoral process, and the practice of voter mobilization.