Language Choice,Residential Stability,and Voting Among Latino Americans*

Objective. Students of political behavior have often found that the primary use of languages other than English impedes many forms of political participation in the United States. We develop expectations about how language choice operates with social context to influence an individual's decision to vote. Although choosing to speak a language other than English—in this case, Spanish—may affect the amount of political information individuals have at their disposal, this choice also represents their access to social and community resources that enable, rather than impede, political participation. Methods. We examine the voting behavior of Latinos, almost entirely Mexican Americans, living in south Texas counties on the U.S. border and reconsider the consequences of language choice for political behavior. Results. Controlling for past residential tenure, we find that Spanish‐speaking Latinos will be more likely to vote than English‐speaking Latinos. Conclusions. The establishment of ties to an ethnic group in a majority‐minority context over time mitigates the negative relationship between the use of Spanish as a primary language and voting.     

Are Naturalized Voters Driving the California Latino Electorate? Measuring the Effect of IRCA Citizens on Latino Voting*

Objectives. The 1990s witnessed the growth and maturation of the Latino electorate in California and many scholars have posited as to the reasons. One argument is that naturalizations by way of the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) drove the increases in Latino participation. In this article we investigate the extent to which this is the case. Methods. Using unpublished INS data, we offer the first empirical test of the IRCA theory by examining Latino IRCA petitions by zipcode to determine whether or not IRCA legalizations and subsequent naturalizations were the force behind increased Latino turnout, and the overall growth of the Latino vote. We merge IRCA data with Registrar of Voter data to examine real growth in the Latino vote at the zipcode level from 1996–2000 in southern California. Results. Although Latino voting grew substantially, we find that IRCA naturalizations did not spur the increases in Latino voting in the 1990s as some have expected. Instead, demographic and mobilization variables explain why the Latino vote grew between 1996 and 2000. Conclusions. As Congress debates new proposals to “legalize” the millions of undocumented immigrants living and working in this country, many will inevitably ask what impact their citizenship will have on the electorate. This study sheds some light on the relationship between amnesty programs, citizenship, and voting among Latinos.     

Voting Green*

Objectives. Economics, partisanship, and demographics have all been identified as linked to support for environmental protection. The principal objective of this study is to extend the extant literature by using a larger data set and a variety of methods. Methods. We use variety of statistical methods to test measures of party strength, demographics, and economics against county‐level data from 29 environmental initiative elections in 13 states. Results. Democratic partisanship is the most consistent predictor of aggregate support for environmental measures. This trend holds through pooled, individual‐level, and ecological inference analysis. Median family income and income squared are consistently significant, as is education. Conclusion. Based on these data, we reach three general conclusions. First, while several variables are consistently significant, party strength is the most consistent predictor of pro‐environmental voting across states and initiatives. Second, our analyses suggest that limiting analyses to data from a single state or region may have important implications for statistical inferences. Lastly, a preliminary analysis using methods of ecological inference suggests that the aggregate results are robust to ecological problems.     

Participation in Voluntary Youth‐Serving Associations and Early Adult Voting Behavior*

Objective. We investigate adolescent membership in voluntary associations and whether participation in these activities influences voting behavior during early adulthood. Methods. Weighted logistic regression models predicting membership in voluntary associations and voting behavior were estimated using data from the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988–1994 (NELS). Results. Our findings suggest that membership in voluntary associations varies by race and socioeconomic status (SES). In addition, membership in organizations historically rooted in moral development and civic socialization positively predict voter‐registration status and whether or not young adults participated in the first national election that they were eligible to vote in, but this relationship is moderated by both race and SES. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that a large proportion of U.S. teenagers still participate in community‐based programs, many of which foster later civic participation, but that all youth do not equally benefit from participation.     

Issue Voting and Crime in Gubernatorial Elections*

Objective. Research on gubernatorial elections has focused extensively on the impact of the economy, ignoring other noneconomic issues that voters may consider when casting their ballots. This article examines the impact of one such noneconomic issue, crime, to determine whether voters hold governors accountable for crime rates and, if so, whether they incorporate national‐ or state‐level conditions. In addition, I investigate whether more educated segments of the electorate are likely to engage in issue voting. Methods. I empirically analyze these propositions using aggregate‐level data on gubernatorial elections from 1986–2004. Results. The data analysis reveals that crime significantly influences gubernatorial races, voters consider state‐ rather than national‐level conditions, and that crime rates have a larger impact in states with a more educated population. Conclusion. Future inquiries should explore other noneconomic issues at the national and subnational levels to determine the breadth of issues that impact elections.     

Race and Environmental Voting in the U.S. Congress

Objective. This article examines long-term trends in the environmental voting behavior in Congress and attempts to identify the factors that account for racial differences in voting patterns. Methods. Hypotheses about the various possible influences on environmental voting behavior are tested using longitudinal analyses and path analysis techniques. Results. Findings indicate African American members of Congress have been consistently more supportive of proenvironment legislation than either Republican or Democrat colleagues from 1981 to 1998. The data further suggest that much of these overall differences are explained by an especially large racial gap in proenvironmental voting among members from the South. Although such a gap among members from outside the South is eliminated by controlling for ideology and other variables, it remains substantial among Southern members. Conclusions. Based on the strong and consistent support for environmental legislation by African American members of Congress in the past, we expect significant racial differences in environmental voting to endure. Although results suggest that ideology plays a partial role in explaining such differences, future research will be needed to identify the reasons for the especially large racial gap in proenvironmental voting among members from the South. Given the growth in their numbers, their relatively safe seats, and their potential to chair important committees as they gain seniority, we expect African American legislators to play an increasingly important role in shaping and deciding the fate of national environmental policy in the future.     

Partisan Gerrymandering and the Voting Rights Act*

Objective. The goal of the study is to empirically assess the extent of partisan and incumbent gerrymandering in the 2000 congressional redistricting. Critics of congressional redistricting have argued that recent partisan gerrymandering severely undermines electoral competitiveness to the point of violating constitutional equal protection standards. Method. We first analyze the legal precedents and arguments central to the contemporary redistricting debate. We then analyze district‐level data measuring the change in a congressional incumbent's presidential party vote share before and after the 2000 redistricting. We conduct regression analyses that test for partisan and incumbent gerrymandering effects with an eye toward noting implications for the Voting Rights Act, particularly majority‐minority districting. Results. We find that recent redistricting significantly contributed to a further decline in electoral competitiveness; however, most of this decline in competitiveness came through incumbency protection, not partisan gerrymandering. Majority‐minority districts lost about 5 percent incumbent party vote share, though only 3 percent in southern states. Conclusion. Given these results, we conclude that the logic of partisan gerrymandering is at variance with the mandate of racial redistricting. One effect of establishing a strict judicial standard limiting statewide partisan biases would be to restrict states' capacity to draw majority‐minority districts.     

Educational Attainment in New and Established Latino Metropolitan Destinations*

Objective. This study examines the educational attainment of Latinos who immigrated to the United States by age 12. We compare the educational attainment of Latino immigrants in established and emerging Latino immigrant gateway cities in order to identify whether there are any significant differences in educational attainment between immigrants in these two gateways types and why such differences might exist. Methods. We employ OLS regression using the 2000 5% Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample. Results. Our results suggest that contrary to speculation, educational attainment among Latino immigrants is significantly higher in new Latino destinations than in established Latino metropolitan areas, although much of the difference is mediated by demographic factors. Migration history, English proficiency, ethnicity, and citizenship status account for a substantial portion of the differences in educational attainment between destination types. The migration history of these immigrants suggests a selection effect: only those immigrants who are relative newcomers to their new Latino destination have significantly higher educational attainment than those in established metropolitan areas. Conclusions. We find that educational attainment among Latino immigrants is higher in new Latino destinations. Our study suggests that more highly educated Latino immigrants are choosing new Latino destinations, while longer‐term immigrant residents of new destinations are faring no better (in terms of educational levels) than those in established destinations. English proficiency, ethnicity, and citizenship status are confirmed as factors strongly associated with educational attainment among immigrants.     

Voting by Mail: Turnout and Institutional Reform in Oregon*

Objectives. I test the impact of Oregon's vote‐by‐mail system on voter turnout. Methods. To determine the impact, I create a cross‐sectional time‐series regression model of state turnout in presidential elections from 1980 to 2004 and mid‐term elections from 1982 to 2006. Results. I find that Oregon's turnout increases by around 10 percentage points of registered voters in both presidential and mid‐term elections due to the voting‐by‐mail reform. Conclusions. These results suggest that one of the reasons that the United States has comparatively lower turnout is due to its more onerous voting procedures.     

Personal Values and Public Opinion*

Objective. Social science considers values a key motivator of human behavior, yet studies of values in public opinion have tended to focus on more limited political values. I investigate how a general theory of human values ( Schwartz, 1992 ) shapes public opinion. In one dimension, individuals are motivated by a desire for independent thought and action versus conformity to traditional social norms; in the second, individuals are motivated by a desire to care for others versus control or achieve superior social status over them. Methods. Statistical analysis of the European Social Survey, nationally representative surveys in 15 western European nations. Results. Human values are systematically related to a citizen's left‐right self‐identification, displaying appropriate sensitivity to party system context in Scandinavia, and explaining attitudes toward ethnic minority immigration, even when controlling for reasonable alternate explanations. Conclusion. Personal values along these two dimensions of social conflict merit further attention as sources of public opinion.     

Latino and Asian American Mobilization in the 2006 Immigration Protests*

Objective. Through a comparative analysis of Latino and Asian American participation in the 2006 immigration rallies, this article presents a new framework for understanding differential protest outcomes. Methods. To understand the relative lack of Asian American participation in contrast to their Latino counterparts, I conducted in‐depth interviews with community organization leaders and assessed the text of HR 4437, U.S. ethnic media, and organizational resources. Results. I find that structural disadvantages diminished prospects for Asian American activists to effectively mobilize the Asian American community. Conclusion. By conducting a systematic and multidimensional approach to understanding differential protest participation, I conclude that structural conditions significantly advantage the mobilization of certain groups over others.     

Distance,Turnout, and the Convenience of Voting*

Objectives. This research examines how distance factors into the costs associated with political participation. We hypothesize that the political geography of a voter's residence affects not only the likelihood that he or she will vote, but whether the voter will choose between traditional Election Day voting or nontraditional means, such as casting an absentee ballot by mail, or going to an early‐voting site. Methods. Using a geographic information system (GIS), we calculate Manhattan‐block distances between voter residences and their respective precinct and nearest early‐voting sites in Clark County, NV for the 2002 mid‐term election. We then use these calculated distances to predict, with multinomial logistic regression, the likelihood of nonvoting, precinct voting, and nontraditional voting. Results. Our evidence suggests that the cost of traveling to reach a traditional voting site is associated with nonvoting to a point, but the relationship between distance and participation is nonlinear. Distance to traditional voting sites is also highly associated with choosing to vote by mail. Would‐be nonvoters are more inclined to use proximate election‐day sites than proximate early‐voting sites, probably because they decide to vote so late in the campaign. Conclusions. Our findings have important implications for democratic theory, ongoing efforts to reform the electoral process, and the practice of voter mobilization.