Rethinking electoral reform in New Zealand: the benefits of citizens' assemblies

In 2011, New Zealanders decided by referendum to retain the mixed member proportional representation voting system. This article investigates the benefits of including a deliberative, participatory process in electoral reform to encourage collective debate and an informed choice by voters. In the last decade, Canada and the Netherlands have used citizens' assemblies, a form of participatory democracy, for electoral reform. This paper argues that a similar process would have been appropriate and valuable for New Zealand. Moreover, the discussion highlights the value of citizens' assemblies for minorities who can be outvoted in a referendum. This is considered with specific reference to voters in the Māori seats who had much at stake in the electoral reform. In addition to the general benefit of citizens' assemblies for electoral reform, a New Zealand assembly would have allowed for collective deliberation that ensured the inclusion of the perspectives of voters in the Māori seats.     

Sincerity and manipulation under approval voting

Under approval voting, each voter can nominate as many candidates as she wishes and the election winners are those candidates that are nominated most often. A voter is said to have voted sincerely if she prefers all those candidates she nominated to all other candidates. As there can be a set of winning candidates rather than just a single winner, a voter’s incentives to vote sincerely will depend on what assumptions we are willing to make regarding the principles by which voters extend their preferences over individual candidates to preferences over sets of candidates. We formulate two such principles, replacement and deletion, and we show that, under approval voting, a voter who accepts those two principles and who knows how the other voters will vote will never have an incentive to vote insincerely. We then discuss the consequences of this result for a number of standard principles of preference extension in view of sincere voting under approval voting.     

Anglo Voting on Nativist Ballot Initiatives: The Partisan Impact of Spatial Proximity to the U.S.‐Mexico Border*

Objective. In this study, we examine how contextual factors influence voting behavior on nativist ballot initiatives using California's Propositions 187 and 227. We argue that spatial proximity to the border is associated with voting behavior on nativist initiatives. Methods. To examine the influence of environmental factors on Anglo voting behavior on nativist ballot initiatives, we utilize California Field Polls, U.S. Census data, and spatially referenced data generated using GIS software. Results. The results indicate that spatial proximity to the border is an important component in individual‐level voting on nativist initiatives and that the impact of proximity to the border on the vote for Propositions 187 and 227 varies as a function of individual‐level partisan affiliation. Conclusions. These findings hold implications for future research regarding the influence of geospatial boundaries and political behavior.     

Barack Obama's “American” Problem: Unhyphenated Americans in the 2008 Elections*

Objectives. The largest increase of any ancestry group between the 1990 and 2000 Census in the United States were “unhyphenated Americans,” those whites who claimed an “American” or no ancestry. This article measures this group's voting habits in the 2008 elections. Methods. With individual‐level attitudinal data and county‐level voting data from the 2008 primary and 2000–2008 general elections, the analyses use quantitative methods to estimate unhyphenated Americans' voting behavior. Results. Evidence indicates a strong rejection of Obama among counties with high proportions of unhyphenated Americans in both the 2008 primary and general elections. Conclusion. While spatially concentrated in and near Appalachia, unhyphenated Americans' politics are distinctive irrespective of socioeconomic status, religion, and geography, being one of the few groups in which Barack Obama lost votes compared to previous Democratic nominees. Variation in the share of unhyphenated Americans explains more of the difference between 2008 and past elections than variation in the share of African Americans per county.     

Stranger Danger: Redistricting,Incumbent Recognition,and Vote Choice*

Objectives. We take a step forward in examining the electoral effects of redistricting by: (1) demonstrating that voters with a new incumbent because of redistricting are less likely to recognize their representative, and (2) voters are less likely to vote for their representative if they fail to recognize him or her. Methods. Our data come from a survey of white respondents who resided in the redrawn Eighth District of Georgia for the 2006 U.S. House elections. We use probit regressions to first measure the effect of redistricting on incumbent recognition. Then, we assess the likelihood of voting for the incumbent depending on whether a respondent was redrawn or has the same incumbent after redistricting, and whether or not the respondent could recognize his or her representative. Results. Our analyses make it clear that redrawn voters were much less likely to recognize their incumbent and it is the inability to recognize one's incumbent, irrespective of whether the representative has changed due to redistricting, which accounts for a reduced likelihood of voting for the incumbent. Conclusions. Other scholars have examined the relationship between redistricting and incumbent recognition. Likewise, many have evaluated the effects of redistricting on vote choice. This article, however, is the first to merge these two relationships. We find that redrawn constituents are less likely to know who their representative is, and it is indeed a lack of familiarity that reduces an incumbent's vote share. Thus, we have shown empirically that the absence of a personal vote, which is exacerbated by redistricting, proves electorally harmful to the incumbent.     

Candidates and Competition: Variability in Ideological Voting in U.S. Senate Elections*

Objectives. In choosing candidates to support in congressional elections, voters consider both policy and nonpolicy factors. However, the relative importance of incumbency or presidential approval versus candidates' ideological platforms likely varies across elections. Specifically, stiffer electoral competition should encourage ideology‐based voting because candidate information is more plentiful. In contrast, incumbents' ability to garner votes simply by virtue of already holding office should depress proximity voting in elections with incumbents. Methods. Using data from the 1988–1992 Pooled Senate Election Study, I estimate logistic regression models of individual vote choice. Results. I find that open‐seat elections do promote the use of candidate ideological proximity in the voting calculus but that the effects of election competitiveness are less clear. Conclusions. The findings have important implications for normative democratic theory, for our constitutional framework, and for elite behavior and aggregate‐level electoral outcomes.     

Health Beliefs and Attitudes: A Comparison Between Turkey and Palestine

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to identify the beliefs and attitudes that influence health-related behavior while comparing two countries that can have different political and economic structures. This study also gathers both Turkish and Palestinian citizens' beliefs and attitudes towards health determinants. To assess and compare citizens' attitudes toward health care and health determinants a total of 4,100 questionnaires were distributed, whereas 2,600 were distributed in Turkey, and another 1,500 questionnaires in the Palestine. According to the research, the individuals surveyed in Turkey noted that smoking, stress, and getting access to a medical institution were noted as the most influential determinants which affect their health; whereas, the people of Palestine thought that income status, and educational levels were the most influential factors in health. In addition, it was found that there were some statistically significant differences between participants' responses in Turkey and Palestine; however, what both samples shared was that economic factors were an important factor affecting health beliefs and attitudes, regardless of where a participant lived. Finally, comparisons and future recommendations are made to improve health-related beliefs, attitudes and behaviors in both countries.     

Gender Jeopardy: What is the Impact of Gender Differences in Political Knowledge on Political Participation?*

Objective. We explore whether observed sex‐based differences in political knowledge have an impact on men's and women's participation in six different political activities. Methods. Utilizing ANES data from the five presidential elections between 1984 and 2000, we employ logistic regression to estimate the likelihood of voting, influencing a vote, attending a political meeting, working on a political campaign, wearing a political button, and making a campaign donation. Results. At lower levels of political knowledge, women's lower political knowledge depresses their participation in politics. The participation gap disappears at higher levels of political knowledge for three participatory acts: attempting to influence a vote, attending a political meeting, and donating to a political campaign. Furthermore, at higher levels of political knowledge, women are more likely than men to vote, wear a political button, or work for political campaigns. Conclusion. Our analysis reveals that political knowledge differentially affects men's and women's political participation. These findings complement existing scholarship that finds women hold themselves to a higher standard before engaging in political activities such as running for elected office.     

Language Choice,Residential Stability,and Voting Among Latino Americans*

Objective. Students of political behavior have often found that the primary use of languages other than English impedes many forms of political participation in the United States. We develop expectations about how language choice operates with social context to influence an individual's decision to vote. Although choosing to speak a language other than English—in this case, Spanish—may affect the amount of political information individuals have at their disposal, this choice also represents their access to social and community resources that enable, rather than impede, political participation. Methods. We examine the voting behavior of Latinos, almost entirely Mexican Americans, living in south Texas counties on the U.S. border and reconsider the consequences of language choice for political behavior. Results. Controlling for past residential tenure, we find that Spanish‐speaking Latinos will be more likely to vote than English‐speaking Latinos. Conclusions. The establishment of ties to an ethnic group in a majority‐minority context over time mitigates the negative relationship between the use of Spanish as a primary language and voting.     

Political information,gender and the vote: the differential impact of organizations,personal discussion,and the media on the electoral decisions of women and men

Although there are many demonstrated ways in which men and women approach politics differently, we know very little about how sources of political information, e.g., mass media, political organizations, differentially influence the vote choices of men and women. Using a rich, contextual dataset containing measures not only of respondent perceptions of political information, but actual content coding of those sources of political information, we estimate how television, newspapers, personal discussants, organizations, and political parties may have impacted the voting of men and women in the 1992 U.S. presidential election. We find that women’s vote choices are more likely than men’s to be influenced by the organizations to which they belong. Women are also more likely to respond to television news with a hostile media bias—they see television newscasts as definitively favoring the candidate that they oppose. We address possible explanations for these patterns of results and point towards directions for additional research.     

Deceit,diversity, or mobilization?: Intra-ethnic diversity and changing patterns in Florida's Hispanic Vote

What explains President Bush's increased vote in the State of Florida in the 2004 election? A common perception is that implementation of electronic voting machines and a surge in GOP registration increased Bush's vote margins relative to the 2000 election. In this paper we offer an alternative explanation: massive Puerto Rican immigration combined with successful Republican mobilization of this group explains about 14% of the increase in Bush's margin of victory—approximately 50,000 votes. Scholars’ failure to account for intra-ethnic diversity, by employing a “panethnic” approach that treats Latinos as having identical political preferences, leads scholars to overlook the important role of Hispanic subconstituencies in the 2004 election.     

Black Voters,Black Candidates,and Social Issues: Does Party Identification Matter?*

Objective. Much is known about voting behavior generally; less is known about voting behavior of African Americans in particular due in part to the overwhelming support of black voters for Democratic candidates. However, some argue that black conservatism on social issues could lead to more Republican voting. Methods. We test this question with a set of data on black voting behavior in a 2004 congressional race where two black candidates ran against each other. We thus hold race of candidate constant and look at the influence of social issues and party identification on black vote choice. Results. We find evidence to suggest that evangelicalism and support for the war in Iraq is related to being Republican, but that Democratic Party identification plays the dominant role in black voter decision making. Conclusions. Black conservatism on at least certain social issues is real and has the potential to influence vote choice, but the influence of Democratic Party allegiance is still a very powerful cue for black voters.     

Location of Public Goods and the Calculus of Voting: The Seattle Monorail Referendum*

Objectives. In this article we explore how the geographic location of a proposed public good on the ballot in a local referendum influences voting turnout. We argue that voters who live farther away from the good, and are thus likely to bear the cost of the good but have no access to it, would be more motivated to turn out in the election. Drawing on the cost‐orientation hypothesis, or negativity effect, “that people are more strongly motivated to avoid losses than to approach gains,” we expect these voters to derive higher expressive benefits from the act of voting relative to those of voters located closer to the good. Methods. We examine voting turnout in the 2002 referendum in the City of Seattle on the proposed construction of a monorail. We conduct our study at the precinct level using spatial tools of analysis. We evaluate the effect of accessibility on turnout by means of a curvilinear model that incorporates demographic and political variables. Results. We find that voting turnout is determined partly by accessibility. Turnout is higher in precincts located farther away from the monorail line than in precincts located relatively closer to the line. Partisanship conditions this effect. Conclusions. This study provides tentative support for linking voter turnout to the negativity effect via expressive benefits. Voters' location in relation to a public good may affect directly their political behavior by means of their perceived net gains or losses from the good.     

Approval voting and strategy analysis: A Venetian example

The author presents a historic reconstruction of the single-member constituency election system known as approval voting which was used to elect Venetian dogi for over 500 years. An interesting procedure theoretically, concurrent approval voting is the only sincere single-winner election system. Central issues concerning strategy choice under uncertainty are investigated using a contingency-dependent framework of individual behavior given prior probability distributions over decision relevant propositions. Extensions are then proposed for the use of approval procedures in modern elections and other collective decision-making situations. Finally the advantages of trichotomous preferences in decision and strategy analysis are argued.Masculine personal pronouns are used when discussing doge elections, otherwise feminine pronouns are used.     

Pareto efficiency in multiple referendum

We consider situations of multiple referendum: finitely many yes-or-no issues have to be socially assessed from a set of approval ballots, where voters approve as many issues as they want. Each approval ballot is extended to a complete preorder over the set of outcomes by means of a preference extension. We characterize, under a mild richness condition, the largest domain of top-consistent and separable preference extensions for which issue-wise majority voting is Pareto efficient, i.e., always yields out a Pareto-optimal outcome. Top-consistency means that voters’ ballots are their unique most preferred outcome. It appears that the size of this domain becomes negligible relative to the size of the full domain as the number of issues increases.     

The Myth of “Security Moms” and “NASCAR Dads”: Parenthood,Political Stereotypes,and the 2004 Election*

Objective. The objective of this article is to explore the impact of being a parent on political views and to test the accuracy of the “Security Mom” and “NASCAR Dad” labels that were pervasively applied in the context of the 2004 presidential election. Methods. The methods we employed consist of using data primarily from the 2004 National Election Study to determine whether parents differ from nonparents in terms of their political attitudes on a wide range of issues. We argue that parenthood affects women and men differently, so we analyze the sexes separately. Results. Mothers have important political distinctions from women without children, mostly in the case of social welfare issues. They do not, however, appear to be “Security Moms” in the post‐9/11 world. As for fathers, for the most part it makes little sense to talk about dads as a distinct voting bloc, as in very few cases do their political attitudes differ from men without children. Conclusions. The media's use of the labels “NASCAR Dad” and Security Mom” promoted an inaccurate understanding of the political preferences of parents. Beyond debunking these media myths, our results provide one of the first comprehensive looks at the impact of parenthood on political attitudes, an overlooked area in the adult socialization literature.     

Distance,Turnout, and the Convenience of Voting*

Objectives. This research examines how distance factors into the costs associated with political participation. We hypothesize that the political geography of a voter's residence affects not only the likelihood that he or she will vote, but whether the voter will choose between traditional Election Day voting or nontraditional means, such as casting an absentee ballot by mail, or going to an early‐voting site. Methods. Using a geographic information system (GIS), we calculate Manhattan‐block distances between voter residences and their respective precinct and nearest early‐voting sites in Clark County, NV for the 2002 mid‐term election. We then use these calculated distances to predict, with multinomial logistic regression, the likelihood of nonvoting, precinct voting, and nontraditional voting. Results. Our evidence suggests that the cost of traveling to reach a traditional voting site is associated with nonvoting to a point, but the relationship between distance and participation is nonlinear. Distance to traditional voting sites is also highly associated with choosing to vote by mail. Would‐be nonvoters are more inclined to use proximate election‐day sites than proximate early‐voting sites, probably because they decide to vote so late in the campaign. Conclusions. Our findings have important implications for democratic theory, ongoing efforts to reform the electoral process, and the practice of voter mobilization.     

The potential of iterative voting to solve the separability problem in referendum elections

In referendum elections, voters are often required to register simultaneous votes on multiple proposals. The separability problem occurs when a voter’s preferred outcome on one proposal depends on the outcomes of other proposals. This type of interdependence can lead to unsatisfactory or even paradoxical election outcomes, such as a winning outcome that is the last choice of every voter. Here we propose an iterative voting scheme that allows voters to revise their voting strategies based on the outcomes of previous iterations. Using a robust computer simulation, we investigate the potential of this approach to solve the separability problem.     

The Role of Social Distrust in Risk-Benefit Analysis: A Study of the Siting of a Hazardous Waste Disposal Facility

Distrust of social institutions is becoming an important component of risk communication and policy analysis. To assess the impact of social distrust on decision making, we examine the role of distrust of information sources on the willingness to accept a hazardous waste disposal facility in one's neighborhood. Using a prospective-reference utility model, distrust of information sources is analyzed a possible influence on individual choice in a risk-benefit tradeoff. Using contingent valuation survey data on the siting of a hazardous waste disposal facility, we find that respondents are particularly distrustful of both governmental officials and waste disposal businesses. We find that social distrust increases the perceived risk of a facility and influences the likelihood of accepting a referendum to site a hazardous waste disposal facility. The level of compensation offered in the contingent valuation scenario also is found to influence a respondent's risk perception.     

The electoral consequences of alienation: Nonvoting and protest voting in the 1992 presidential race

This article focuses on the context of the 1992 national elections in order to determine why certain alienated individuals chose to stay home on election day while others responded by voting for a third party Presidential candidate. Two dimensions of alienation, internal and external political inefficacy, are linked to lower levels of voting, as is consistent with previous research on voting behavior. In addition, we find that, among those who voted, those individuals who expressed political cynicism or external inefficacy were more likely to vote for Ross Perot. We conclude that, while many alienated individuals do not vote, the Perot candidacy in 1992 led certain alienated individuals to engage in “protest” voting by casting their vote for an unlikely winner in the presidential race.