Causes of Civil War in Asia and Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Comparison*

Objectives. This article explores the extent to which economic development, ethnic and religious fractionalization, domestic governance, and international trade openness affect civil war in postcolonial Asia and Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) from 1950 through 1992. Methods. We estimate a set of multivariate logit models with the generalized estimating equation (GEE) method for time‐series cross‐sectional (TSCS) data. Results. Both in Asia and in SSA, civil war is less likely with increased economic development and trade openness, while mixed autocratic‐democratic regimes raise the likelihood that states will experience civil war. Although neither ethnic nor religious fractionalization has any statistically significant effect on civil war in SSA, civil war in Asia is more likely with greater ethnic fractionalization. Conclusions. Despite cross‐regional variation in causes of civil war, economic development and trade openness seem to play a consistent role in reducing civil war.     

Determining Democracy in the Organization of the Islamic Conference*

Objectives. We determine the conditions that account for change in the realized level of political rights and civil liberties within the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC). Methods. We use ordered logit to assess the impact of religious pluralism and fragmentation and related controls on changes in Freedom House Political Rights and Civil Liberties scores at five‐year intervals between 1976 and 2004. Results. Findings suggest that the presence of non‐Islamic religious groups within OIC states leads to an increase in political rights, while the presence of Islamic groups practicing a version of the faith not officially recognized by the state reduced political rights and civil liberties. Conclusions. Islam's influence on democratization does not fall neatly into either the “pro” or “con” categories that have so strongly defined the relevant literature. Islam's influence is, instead, variable and contingent on the wider degree of religious characteristics within each state.     

Welfare and Democratization – Comparing Croatia,Serbia and Macedonia

The article discusses the main determinants of welfare transformation after the regime change from communism towards democracy. The states of the former Yugoslavia, notwithstanding a common welfare state structure, albeit at different quality levels, after departing communism developed diverse trajectories. In response to the wars, war‐related consequences and growing economic pressures, the national political elites in Yugoslav successor states initially extended welfare provisions and thus thwarted popular mobilization. The international actors' agenda gained ground in a setting characterized by nationalistic resentments, popular disorientation and elite capture. What the analyzed country cases suggest is that democratization has contributed to making reforms more responsive to public concerns. On the other hand, ‘defective’ systems continue to impede economic development and compromise the welfare state's redistributive role.     

Democracy, Social Relations and Ecowelfare

Like Marxists before, greens are trenchant critics of the commodification of human life by consumer capitalism. They have been persistent advocates of less materialistic ways of living but, as such, have been easily dismissed as champions of frugal, small‐scale community living. This essay argues that a society which fostered non‐materialistic ways of living could offer more rather than less to its citizens if it put at the centre of its vision the quality of human and social relations. A relational perspective insists that human capacities—aesthetic, spiritual, practical/intellectual, ethical and convivial—are developed through our relations to others and to nature, including the nature and otherness in ourselves. The primary aim of an ecowelfare society should be to create the conditions for such human capacities to flourish in a balanced way. The essay frst describes four areas of our everyday social relations where qualitative change is necessary if a democratic culture is to flourish. Capitalism privileges the development of the practical/intellectual and, in consequence, our over‐extended technical powers now put the world at risk. Green democracy must be approached in this light. Participation in political discussion and decision making at all levels of society enhances individual and collective ethical and convivial capacities and therefore fosters citizens who have the capacity to respond to social and ecological insecurity. To be convincing, green democracy needs to recognize the actual complexity of society, a complexity that direct, face‐to‐face models of democracy cannot deal with. In opposition to the markets and managerialism of existing governments greens should develop a vision of the extended democratization of all levels and institutions of society, from housing estates and health centres to universities and non‐departmental public bodies like the Arts Council. In doing so it must recognize the differences, tensions and conflicts in all communities irrespective of whether these are generated around place, identity or lifestyle. It must therefore promote the maximum diversity of democratic forms.     

Land Tenure,Democracy, and Patterns of Violence During the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal, 1996–2005*

Objectives. We seek to investigate the determinants of Nepal's relapse into authoritarianism and resort to violence rather than reform as a response to the Maoist insurgency. Revolutionary insurgency emerged in Nepal after a transition to parliamentary democracy, whereas democracy is supposed to inoculate a nation against the risk of civil war. We present a theory of how the level of violence varies across districts with variations in the distribution of peasants among land tenure categories. Methods. We use district‐level data from Nepal and test hypotheses by using negative binominal statistical analysis. Results. Our results indicate that the level of violence varies across districts with variations in land tenure patterns, the level of electoral participation, and the extent of poverty. Conclusions. Our study provides insights into how the concentration of landed resources and political power creates incentives for a landowning coalition that dominated the state to use violence against those segments of the peasantry that have incentives to support an insurgency that promised to redistribute land.     

Revisiting History: The Creation of Provinces and the Politics of Social Policy in a Democratic South Africa

The pre‐democracy negotiations between the African National Congress (ANC) and the National Party (NP) established nine provincial forms of government to replace the four provinces of the apartheid era. The nine provinces contrasted with the historical goal of the ANC to create a ‘democratic, non‐racial and unitary South Africa’. The NP wanted nine new provinces to prevent centralized state power under an ANC government and saw possibilities for winning electoral power in the Western Cape. The ANC conceded following political pressure from the Inkatha Freedom Party, which threatened civil war, and a policy shift after examining the German federal governance system. The article analyzes the history, politics, process and outcomes of the establishment of the nine provinces for social policy delivery in South Africa. It explores the contention that the nine provinces re‐fragmented service delivery (although not on a statutory racial basis) and created a system of fiscal decentralization with serious implications for social policy: weakening bureaucratic capacity, institutional capability and political accountability. The provincial governance mechanisms and fiscal institutions created a particular ‘path dependency’ which, 18 years after democratic, rule still impacts negatively on service delivery and more equitable policy outcomes. This is in part due to the undermining of provincial governance mechanisms and fiscal institutions by a significant minority of corrupt and incompetent provincial civil servants. The corruption of these provincial governance mechanisms and fiscal institutions erodes the egalitarian values aimed at creating a non‐racial, non‐sexist, democratic and unitary South Africa which historically underpinned the policy agenda of the ANC. It also has weakened social citizenship on a geographical and ultimately racial basis given the continuing co‐incidence of race and place in a democratic South Africa.     

The transfer of arms and the diffusion of democracy: do arms promote or undermine the “third wave”?

The post–Cold War world has witnessed a proliferation of countries governed by democratic rule. Consequently, optimism has arisen about the prospects for the spread of freedom along with democratic peace and prosperity. Along these lines, many democratic countries have made the active promotion of democracy an explicit goal and a condition for third world countries’ assistance. However, such intentions may be threatened by the ever-present arms trade. Not only do arms transfers play a key role in the foreign policies of many democratic countries, but many developing countries continue to purchase arms from abroad at a steady rate. From the perspective of the developing recipients, this study seeks to empirically assess the impact of the arms trade on democratization. To this end, this paper utilizes an exploratory data technique, locally weighted scatterplot smoother (LOWESS) to examine data for developing countries between 1982 and 1992. By exploring graphically the patterns and distributions revealed by these indicators, the implications of the international arms trade for the spread of democracy are assessed.     

Social Insurance Expansion and Political Regime Dynamics in Europe, 1880–1945*

Objectives. This article analyzes the causal relationship between political regime dynamics and social insurance expansion. I theorize that the social insurance expansion is the result of the ruling elites' strategic decision about regime change to dispel revolutionary motives. The key testable implication is that social insurance expansion is more likely to happen under a democratic regime, which, in turn, is influenced by the threat of social revolution evinced by strike activities. Methods. Using historical data on social insurance coverage from 12 European countries from 1880 to 1945, I test the hypothesis employing a treatment‐effects model that endogenizes democratization. Results. I find a positive association between social insurance expansion and democracy, controlling for other political mechanisms. Furthermore, I find that democratic transition is greatly influenced by the duration and intensity of strikes. Conclusion. This study suggests that social insurance expansion requires a link between a threat of revolution and democratization.     

Changing society's DNA codes: Democracy and the global movement for community progress measures

This paper examines some critical issues and opportunities for democracy and public policy posed by the growth of the global progress measurement movement. From the democratic perspective, these include: citizen progress measurement as a form of democratic re‐engagement; the re‐examination of democracy and the development of new indicators to define and measure a ‘healthy’ democracy; and the demonstration of clear linkages between healthy regimes, and broader individual and societal wellbeing. In public policy, the global movement challenges two long dominant assumptions: the primacy of continuous economic growth as the key driver of wellbeing; and the ‘inevitability of progress‘. In their place, it offers a more holistic, integrated and nuanced model that recognises the interdependence of economic, social, cultural, environmental and democratic dimensions for genuine wellbeing, progress and sustainability. The paper reviews work in Australia over the past decade at both local community and national levels as examples of these trends, including the development of citizen‐engaged community planning and neighbourhood renewal schemes in which progress and wellbeing indicators play a central role; the development of state‐wide local progress measurement frameworks as part of a commitment to devolved planning and stronger local democracy; and the evolution of national progress measurement systems. The paper concludes with a proposal for a broad community engaged National Development Index (NDI) for Australia.     

Karl Marx's sociological theory of democracy: Civil society and political rights

This essay reconstructs Marx's relationship to democracy and liberalism through an examination of his early work which was directly concerned with the issues of understanding democracy as a kind of society. Only with an analysis of the dynamics of civil society—a political economic, sociological, and historical understanding—could the true nature of citizenship be discerned. In contradistinction to liberal political theory, he would argue that political theory could not stand on its own if it analyzed only the state. Marx came to understand the contradiction between the liberal state and civil society as what he called a sophistry because it undermined the possibility of the democratic agency of workers. This was a sophistry, not because he opposed political democracy, but because the development of capitalism undermined the possibility of democratic agency. Citizenship could be nothing but a “lion's skin” of politics concealing the nature of civil society beneath it. This contradiction would drive Marx's thought forward as he moved from liberalism to democratic socialism with his developing understanding of the structure and dynamics of capitalism from 1843 until the end of his life. The essay illustrates two closely related claims about Marx's thought regarding liberalism and democracy. First, I argue that Marx engaged in a democratic critique of liberalism; second, and as a response to his democratic critique of liberalism, Marx developed a more sociological understanding of democracy, and hence believed that political democracy was a necessary condition of freedom, though not a sufficient condition.     

Mobilized by Direct Democracy: Short‐Term Versus Long‐Term Effects and the Geography of Turnout in Ballot Measure Elections*

Objectives. A number of recent studies find that direct democracy increases voter turnout. In this article, we ask: Who does direct democracy mobilize to vote and how are they mobilized? We distinguish between long‐term and short‐term effects on voter turnout, noting that much of the current literature has focused on participatory theory. Methods. Our research design harnesses the power of geographic information systems and examines turnout in special initiative‐only elections using registered voter lists. Our model draws on individual and Census tract data, incorporated using a hierarchical generalized linear model. Results. The findings demonstrate how partisan context mitigates the potential for direct democracy to mobilize from the middle, and clarifies the dominance of short‐term as opposed to long‐term effects in increasing voter participation in ballot initiative elections. Conclusion. Mobilization via direct legislation occurs mostly because voters are actively mobilized by partisan campaigns, not because of an increase in participatory fervor.     

Taiwanese Housing Policy Shifting the Focus of Housing Policy under a Democratic Regime

In Taiwan, home ownership has been seen as a privilege of military and civil officers since the R.O.C. government moved to Taiwan in 1949. Taiwan has become a more democratic regime since martial law was repealed in 1987 and presidential election by popular votes was initiated in 1996. Using documentary data, this paper aims to relate the transition in housing policy to Taiwan's political transition from authoritarianism to democracy. We found that after the lifting of martial law, a growing number of social movements were triggered in response to political democratization. Since then, concerns and debates have started on how to revise the housing legislation to promote the welfare and social inclusion of vulnerable groups. A new housing policy that was influenced by the advocacy efforts of an action group was developed in May 2005 to meet social needs and achieve social equity.     

民主的两种批评者

在当代政治哲学中,人们主要从以下两个维度来定义民主：一种是以公共利益为基本导向的民主理论;另一种民主理论认为,在现代社会中,随着实质性的共同利益的消失和单一的群体性意志的不可能,民主不可能在以公共利益为基本导向的模式上建立起来,所以,它们认为＂多元＂和＂竞争＂才是民主的本质性特征。在这两种民主理论中,前者往往被认为是一种压迫性的、独裁性的民主理论;而后者则往往被认为有着重陷霍布斯状态的倾向。     

Inside co‐production: Stakeholder meaning and situated practice

Co‐production has risen to the fore of contemporary policymaking, with the intention of placing citizens at the heart of public service design and production. Although this may lead to more democratic and legitimate decision‐making, achieving “meaningful” co‐production can be difficult. In this qualitative study, we examine what constitutes meaningful co‐production, in particular asking whether there is a disconnect between the elite policy narrative that legitimizes co‐production and stakeholder experiences of this approach. Our research adopts a decentred approach to examine the different ways that actors understand and participate in co‐production, both as a methodology and as an interactive social practice. We conclude that a lack of synergy between local narratives may undermine the potential success of co‐production.     

Democracy,Participation, and Life Satisfaction*

Objectives. We examine whether democracy, political participation, and differing systems of democracy influence individual levels of subjective well‐being. Methods. We use individual data on life satisfaction and characteristics related to satisfaction for approximately 46 countries. We estimate ordered probit models with country and time dummy variables and cluster‐adjusted robust standard errors. Results. Democracy is positively correlated with individual levels of well‐being. The opportunity to participate in the political process and whether the democracy is parliamentary or presidential are related to individual well‐being. Conclusions. Democratic institutions influence subjective well‐being. The well‐being of individuals with minority political views decreases in parliamentary systems.     

The Swiss social insurance system: Social security and grass‐roots democracy

The foundations of Switzerland's social insurance system can be traced to 1890 when a public referendum voted the inclusion of an article into the Federal Constitution that gave the executive the task of creating a sickness and accident insurance scheme. Currently, as in other European countries, the Swiss social insurance system is facing challenges as a result of rising health costs and demographic shifts, which are placing a growing burden on both public finances and private households. To reach policy decisions to address these challenges, the Swiss system is distinguishable from those of its European neighbours because of a continuing tradition of political decision‐making based on grass‐roots democracy: through referenda, the Swiss people remain directly responsible for the development of the national social insurance system. Importantly, not only might this unique feature of Swiss democracy lead the Swiss people more readily to accept and identify with their social insurance system but it may offer a sound democratic base upon which to build a consensual approach to address the policy challenges that lie ahead.     

租借法延期援助的政策动机及其后果

美国对华租借法延期援助的主要政策动机是帮助国民政府重建华北地区力量平衡,迫使国共双方通过谈判解决政治争端,建立一个统一的民主的国家。不料,国民政府自恃军力强大,误以为中共军队不堪一击,遂贸然挑起全国内战。租借法延期援助积聚的能量最终失控,彻底摧毁了预定的政策目标,导致杜鲁门总统对华政策彻底失败。     

Sources of Corruption in Authoritarian Regimes*

Objectives. We seek to investigate the determinants of corruption in authoritarian polities. We hypothesize that corruption in nondemocratic settings will be greater where the ruling group is personalistic rather than a political party or a military clique and that it will be greater where rulers expect to remain in power longer. We construct a new operationalization of the selectorate theory advanced by Bueno de Mesquita et al. Methods. We use cross‐sectional statistical analysis (OLS) to examine a sample of 40‐odd authoritarian regimes as of 2000. Results. Our results indicate that personalistic and personalistic‐hybrid regimes are more prone to corruption than single‐party and military regimes and also that rulers who expect to remain in power for longer are less corrupt. Corroborating previous studies, we document that the availability of natural resources and higher levels of institutionalized autocracy are associated with greater corruption and that wealthier countries experience less corruption. Our results are consistent with previous studies, including that of Bueno de Mesquita et al., but because of our reconstruction of selectorate theory in terms of real‐world regime types, they are more easily interpretable. Conclusions. Our study sheds light on why African countries are so notoriously corrupt. The personalistic authoritarian regimes that have arisen there in the postcolonial period appear especially prone to corruption, whereas military and single‐party dictatorships are less corrupt.     

The Role of Non‐profit Organizations in the Mixed Economy of Welfare‐to‐Work in the UK and Australia

This article charts the development of welfare‐to‐work policies and compares and contrasts the traditions of delivery in the UK and Australia. We find that in the UK, employment services and social security benefit administration have been dominated by the central state, traditionally affording a key role to civil servants as direct delivery agents. However, in federal Australia, mixed economies of welfare‐to‐work operate in the different states, there is a far greater role for social services and non‐profit organizations are firmly established as key providers of frontline employment services. Since the late 1990s, UK welfare reforms have been gradually following the Australian lead in contracting non‐state actors as delivery agents. As this trend seems set to continue and intensify, we examine the Australian experience in order to reflect on the role of non‐profits in policy reform.     

Re‐imagining public service

We live at a time marked by growing distrust of democratic institutions and increasing threats to those Enlightenment values that afford the individual protection from the arbitrary exercise of authoritarian power. In the face of such challenges, we need to re‐imagine more agile, adaptive and responsive forms of governance. This edited speech argues that with sufficient political authority, public services can facilitate the commissioning of programme delivery, cross‐sectoral collaboration, new forms of social investment in public good and more opportunities for participatory engagement by citizens.