The Politics of Hope and Despair: The Effect of Presidential Election Outcomes on Suicide Rates*

Objectives. This article examines the effect of election outcomes on suicide rates by combining the theory of social integration developed by Durkheim with the models of rational choice used in economics. Methods. Theory predicts that states with a greater percentage of residents who supported the losing candidate would tend to exhibit a relative increase in suicide rates. However, being around others who also supported the losing candidate may indicate a greater degree of social integration at the local level, thereby lowering relative suicide rates. We therefore use fixed‐effects regression of state suicide rates from 1981 to 2005 on state election outcomes during presidential elections to determine which effect is stronger. Results. We find that the local effect of social integration is dominant. The suicide rate when a state supports the losing candidate will tend to be lower than if the state had supported the winning candidate—4.6 percent lower for males and 5.3 percent lower for females. Conclusion. Social integration works at many levels; it not only affects suicide risk directly, but can mediate other shocks that influence suicide risk.     

Income and Power Inequality as Determinants of Environmental and Health Outcomes: Some Findings*

Objective. The article corrects for two main shortcomings in conventional economic analyses of environmental change. First is the overemphasis placed on income growth, and general disregard for other socioeconomic factors. Second is economists' often oversimplified view of the environment, where distinctions between environmental necessities such as potable water and so‐called environmental luxuries are ignored. I test for the effectiveness of power inequality in explaining access to sanitation and safe water as well as their health consequences. Methods. I develop a two‐stage model seeking first to explain changes in the environmental variables and then population health. I employ ordinary least squares regressions on international cross‐sectional data. Results. Some dimensions of power inequality outperform per‐capita income as possible determinants of population health. Neither power inequality nor income is clearly superior at explaining environmental quality. Conclusion. The study casts further doubt on the importance of per‐capita income in explaining environmental and health outcomes.     

Third‐Party Candidates and the 2000 Presidential Election*

Objective. This article examines how third‐party candidates influenced the 2000 presidential election. Methods. Two surveys provide information on a hypothetical election between only George Bush and Al Gore. The determinants of voting behavior in this election are then used to estimate how votes cast for third‐party candidates would have been partitioned between Bush, Gore, and abstentions had the other candidates dropped out of the race. Results. The estimates suggest that the Ralph Nader votes would have gone primarily to Gore (giving him the win in Florida) while Bush would have received more of the Pat Buchanan votes. The results also show that Nader's presence in the race gave Gore an incentive to position himself farther to the left ideologically. Bush's ideological position was not affected by Buchanan's participation. Conclusion. The third‐party candidates' participation was a critical factor in George Bush's Electoral College victory over Al Gore.     

Standardizing the World Income Inequality Database*

Objective. Cross‐national research on the causes and consequences of income inequality has been hindered by the limitations of existing inequality data sets: greater coverage across countries and over time is available from these sources only at the cost of significantly reduced comparability across observations. The goal of the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID) is to overcome these limitations. Methods. A custom missing‐data algorithm was used to standardize the U.N. University's World Income Inequality Database; data collected by the Luxembourg Income Study served as the standard. Results. The SWIID provides comparable Gini indices of gross and net income inequality for 153 countries for as many years as possible from 1960 to the present, along with estimates of uncertainty in these statistics. Conclusions. By maximizing comparability for the largest possible sample of countries and years, the SWIID is better suited to broad cross‐national research on income inequality than previously available sources.     

The Lottery and Income Inequality in the States*

Objective. Since the early 1970s, income inequality in the United States has increased dramatically. We examine the impact of state lotteries on income inequality in the American states from 1976–1995. Methods. We use cross‐sectional time‐series data to evaluate the effect of lotteries as well as those of other state tax policies, redistributive programs, and demographic factors on income inequality. Results. We find that state lotteries foster income concentration. Ceteris paribus, states with lotteries have higher levels of income inequality than those states without a lottery. We also find that additional demographic and policy factors have an impact on income inequality in the states. Conclusions. One of the most important policy‐oriented determinants of income inequality is the lottery and a significant portion of the increase in income inequality over our two‐decade time period is attributable to the increasing prevalence and popularity of state lotteries.     

Higher Education Policy,Enrollment, and Income Inequality*

Objective. The objective of this article is to examine whether public expenditure on higher education has an effect on income inequality by increasing enrollment. Methods. Combining data from the World Bank Development Indicators with data from the World Income Inequality Database version 2, we study the relation between government education expenditure and enrollment rates, as well as the relation between government education expenditure and the change in income inequality during the 1980s and the 1990s. Results. We find that public expenditure on higher education has no positive effect on enrollment. Increased enrollment is mainly explained by higher GDP per capita. Using carefully selected Gini coefficients to ensure comparability over time, we do not find a robust relation between higher education expenditure and lower income inequality, contrary to some previous studies. Conclusions. Government expenditure on higher education has very limited effects on enrollment and inequality. This finding, however, does not imply that there are no social benefits from such subsidies. For example, in countries where high marginal tax rates decrease the economic returns to education, governments may wish to compensate for this through subsidies.     

Statewide Trial‐Heat Polls and the 2000 Presidential Election: A Forecast Model*

Objective. We provide an examination and update of a presidential election forecasting model that we have previously developed to predict state‐level presidential election outcomes. Method. Our model consists of September statewide trial‐heat polls in 1992, 1996, and 2000 along with a prior vote variable. We use this model to generate predictions for both state‐level and national‐level outcomes. Results. Although our model generated reasonably accurate point estimates of state‐level outcomes in 2000, it still incorrectly predicted a Gore victory in 2000. Conclusions. We discuss possible explanations for the 2000 misprediction and present updated coefficients to be used to generate a forecast for the 2004 election.     

Presidential Election Cycles and the Turn‐of‐the‐Month Effect*

Objective. In this research, the presidential election cycle hypothesis is evaluated within the context of the turn‐of‐the‐month effect found in stock returns. Methods. Returns from the daily Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, and the NASDAQ Composite index are grouped into turn‐of‐the month returns and non‐turn‐of‐the‐month returns. Statistical comparisons are conducted to evaluate the returns based on administration subperiod, temporal subperiod, and party affiliation. Results. The results provide evidence of higher turn‐of‐the‐month returns in the second half of presidential terms. The higher turn‐of‐the‐month returns account for most of the additional returns found in the second half of presidential terms evidenced in prior research. Conclusions. The persistent higher investment returns for stocks found in the second half of presidential terms can be linked to fiscal and administrative policies that increase household liquidity prior to elections. Incumbents attempt to influence voter choice and energize core constituencies by increasing household liquidity prior to elections through fiscal and administrative policies. These actions create higher turn‐of the‐month returns in the second half of presidential terms, which generate additional overall investment returns for the period.     

Moral Values, Moralism, and the 2004 Presidential Election

The "moral values vote" in the 2004 American presidential election should be interpreted more broadly than as a reflection of concerns about same-sex marriage and abortion. Instead of specific hot-button social policy issues, a general personality trait of moralism—the tendency to perceive a moral dimension in everyday decisions—may have contributed to the election outcome. Specifically, we hypothesize that some Bush supporters shared Bush's high level of moralism (as reflected in his rhetoric) and that this moralism motivated their votes. Consistent with our hypothesis, a preliminary empirical investigation suggests that Bush voters were, indeed, higher in moralism than were Kerry voters. Plans for further research and political strategy implications are discussed.     

2004年台湾"大选"期间公投问题评析

本文对2003-2004年台湾大选期间的"公投"问题进行了综述,探究其背后的原因,并对"公投"的实质及其前景进行了分析。