The effects of gender control on fertility and children's consumption

Effects of sex preference on investments in children‘s human capital, bequests and fertility are studied, with and without sex selection, in a model based on parental altruism. Both pure sex preference, a feature of the parental utility function, and indirect preference, which arises from gender-related differences in earnings opportunities, are examined. When there is no gender control the impact of pure sex preference is seen in smaller consumption for daughters than for sons. However, when gender control is exerted, sex preference raises the sex ratio and it is possible that sisters may, on average, consume no less than their more numerous brothers. In an example of the model with specific functional forms, parents who practise gender control have larger families than if sex selection techniques were unavailable. The effect is magnified if sons‘ earnings opportunities are better than daughters‘. JEL classification: D11, J13, J16 Received August 31, 1995 / Accepted May 2, 1996     

A simple endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility: indeterminacy and uniqueness

This paper studies the equilibrium dynamics and indeterminacy of equilibria in an endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility choice. We characterize the conditions that give rise to an unique equilibrium as well as multiple equilibria. Whenever there exists a unique equilibrium, it will be globally determinate; when multiple equilibria arise, indeterminacy occurs. In particular, we find that two equilibria occur – one is associated with high fertility and low growth, while the other is associated with low fertility and high growth. A parameterized example is given to assess the empirical feasibility of our results. The validity of the neo-Malthusian relation between fertility and growth is then re-examined. Finally, we study the relation between growth and welfare and compare different balanced growth equilibria in terms of their lifetime-attained utility. JEL classifications: O41, J13 Received December 11, 1995 / Accepted October 20, 1996     

The why, when, and how of immigration amnesties

This paper deals with granting of an amnesty to illegal immigrants. We consider government behavior with respect to allocations on limiting infiltration (border control) and apprehending infiltrators (internal control) and with respect to the granting of amnesties, the timing of amnesties, and limitations on eligibility for those amnesties. We demonstrate the effects of government actions on allocations and the flow of immigrants, and how the interactions between these factors combine to yield an optimal amnesty policy. We also consider two extensions—intertemporal transfers of policing funds and “fuzziness” in declarations regarding eligibility for an amnesty aimed at apprehending and deporting undesirables.     

Evaluating the pin money hypothesis: the relationship between women's labour market activity,family income and poverty in Britain

In this paper we evaluate the hypothesis that the over-representation of women amongst the low paid is of little importance because women‘s earnings account for only a small proportion of total family income. Data from the General Household Survey (GHS), together with attitudinal evidence from three cross-sectional data sources, indicate that women‘s earnings are in fact an important and growing component of family income. The majority of the growth in the share of women‘s earnings occurs as a result of changing family labour structures; women‘s earnings are playing an increasingly important role in keeping their families out of poverty. JEL classification: J16; J31. Received April 9, 1996/Accepted August 22, 1996     

Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: an assessment of the literature

Focusing just on the fertility aspects of the Easterlin hypothesis, this paper offers a critical assessment – rather than just a selective citation – of the extensive fertility literature generated by Easterlin, and a complete inventory of data and methodologies in seventy-six published analyses. With an equal number of micro- and macro-level analyses using North American data (twenty-two), the „track record” of the hypothesis is the same in both venues, with fifteen providing significant support in each case. The literature suggests unequivocal support for the relativity of the income concept in fertility, but is less clear regarding the source(s) of differences in material aspirations, and suggests that the observed relationship between fertility and cohort size has varied across countries and time periods due to the effects of additional factors not included in most models. Received: 16 July 1996 / Accepted: 26 September 1997     

Capital accumulation and the sources of demographic change

We develop a neoclassical growth model having a realistic demographic structure. We identify the critical channel of impact to be the intertemporal consumption allocation decision through the “generational turnover term”. Expressing the aggregate dynamics as a generalization of the conventional neoclassical growth model provides important insights, enabling us to view in a unified way how alternative demographic structures impinge on the macrodynamic equilibrium. Using an approximation to the generational turnover term, we are able to characterize both the steady state and the local transitional dynamics. Through numerical simulations, we analyze the steady state as well as the transitional effects of structural and demographic changes.     

Disentangling the Circularity in Sen’s Capability Approach: An Analysis of the Co-Evolution of Functioning Achievement and Resources

There is an ambiguity in Amartya Sen’s capability approach as to what constitutes an individual’s resources, conversion factors and valuable functionings. What we here call the “circularity problem” points to the fact that all three concepts seem to be mutually endogenous and interdependent. To econometrically account for this entanglement we suggest a panel vector autoregression approach. We analyze the intertemporal interplay of the above factors over a time horizon of 15 years using the BHPS data set for Great Britain, measuring individual well-being in functionings space with a set of basic functionings, comprising “being happy”, “being healthy”, “being nourished”, “moving about freely”, “being well-sheltered” and “having satisfying social relations”. We find that there are indeed functionings that are resources for many other functionings (viz. “being happy”) while other functionings (“being well-sheltered” and “having satisfying social relations”) are by and large independent, thus shedding light on a facet of the capability approach that has been neglected so far.     

Uncertainty and critical-level population principles

This paper analyzes variable-population social-evaluation principles in a framework where outcomes are uncertain. We provide characterizations of expected-utility versions of critical-level generalized utilitarian rules. These principles evaluate lotteries over possible states of the world on the basis of the sum of the expected values of differences between transformed utility levels and a transformed critical level, conditional on the agents‘ being alive in the states under consideration. Equivalently, the critical-level utilitarian value functions applied to weighted individual expected utilities can be employed. Weights are determined by the anonymity axiom. Received: 21 November 1996 / Accepted: 11 March 1997     

A panel study of migration,self-selection and household real income

The impact of migration on income for Swedish multi-adult households is examined using panel data pertaining to a sample of stable household constellations during the period 1980–1990. In contrast to previous studies, data on household disposable income is employed in estimating the income function. The empirical results indicate no significant effect on real disposable income from migration. In addition, the hypothesis of no self-selection, or zero correlation between the errors in the decision function and the income function, cannot be rejected. Received: 10 May 1995 / Accepted: 14 August 1996     

Assessing Parfit’s Repugnant Conclusion within a canonical endogenous growth set-up

Parfit’s Repugnant Conclusion stipulates that under total utilitarianism, it might be optimal to choose increasing population size while consumption per capita goes to zero. We evaluate this claim within a canonical AK model with endogenous population size and a reduced form relationship between demographic and economic growth. First we characterize the optimal solution paths for any capital dilution function. Second, we prove that while the Repugnant Conclusion can never occur for realistic values of intertemporal substitution in the traditional linear dilution model, it does occur when population growth is linked to economic growth via an inverted U-shaped relationship.     

Changes in Human Population Structure: Implications for Biodiversity Conservation

Human population size and growth have been recognized as important factors affecting biodiversity, but the impacts of population structural changes on biodiversity are not clear. In this paper, we made the first attempt to link human population structural changes with implications for biodiversity, using Wolong Nature Reserve (south-western China) for the endangered giant panda as a case study. From 1982 to 1996, the labor force (20–59 years of age) in the reserve jumped by 59.76 percent, although the total population size increased by only 14.65 percent. During the same time period, the sex ratio (males:females) of small children (0–4 years of age) changed from 0.98∶1 to 1.20∶1, and the percentage of children receiving education beyond the elementary school level increased from 14.04 to 27.47. The increase in labor force and the number of male-biased children could have more negative impacts on the panda habitat, whereas improving school education could help more young people move out of the reserve by going to college and finding jobs elsewhere and thus reduce destruction to the panda habitat.     

On high fertility rates in developing countries: birth limits, birth taxes, or education subsidies?

In this paper, we consider two types of population policies observed in practice: birth limits and birth taxes. We find that both achieve very similar equilibrium solutions if tax revenue finances lump-sum transfers. By reducing fertility and promoting growth, both birth policies may achieve higher welfare than conventional education subsidies financed by income taxes. A birth tax for education subsidies can achieve the first-best solution. The welfare gain of the first-best policy may be equivalent to a massive 10–50% rise in income, depending on the degree of human capital externalities and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution.      

Risk Perception,Risk Attitude,and Decision: A Rank-Dependent Analysis

The classical expected utility model of decision under risk has been criticized from an experimental point of view (Allais’ paradox) as well as for its restrictive lack of explanatory power. The Rank-Dependent Expected Utility model answers some of these criticisms. The decision maker is characterized by two functions: a utility function on consequences measuring preferences over sure outcomes and a probability weighting function measuring the subjective weighting of probabilities. The model allows for more diversified types of behavior: it is consistent with the behavior revealed by the Allais paradox; the decision maker could dislike risk (prefer its expectation to any lottery) without necessarily avoiding any increase in risk; diminishing marginal utility may coexist with “weak” risk-seeking attitudes; decision makers with the same utility function may differ in their choices between lotteries when they have different probability weighting functions; furthermore, the same decision maker may have different, context-dependent, subjective beliefs on events.     

Private versus public old-age security

We directly compare two institutions, a family compact—a parent makes a transfer to her parent in anticipation of a possible future gift from her children—with a pay-as-you-go, public pension system, in a life cycle model with endogenous fertility wherein children are valued both as consumption and investment goods. Absent intragenerational heterogeneity, we show that a benevolent government has no welfare justification for introducing public pensions alongside thriving family compacts since the former is associated with inefficiently low fertility. This result hinges critically on a fiscal externality—the inability of middle age agents to internalize the impact of their fertility decisions on old-age transfers under a public pension system. With homogeneous agents, a strong-enough negative aggregate shock to middle-age incomes destroys all family compacts, and in such a setting, an optimal public pension system cannot enter. This suggests the raison d’être for social security must lie outside of its function as a pension system—specifically its redistributive function which emerges with heterogeneous agents. In a simple modification of our benchmark model—one that allows for idiosyncratic frictions to compact formation such as differences in infertility/mating status—a welfare-enhancing role for a public pension system emerges; such systems may flourish even when family compacts cannot.     

The Public Acceptance of Voluntary Childlessness in the Netherlands: from 20 to 90 per cent in 30 years

Within a relatively short period of 30 years, public acceptance of voluntary childlessness has increased enormously in the Netherlands. In this paper, we address two research questions, which we answer with data from 13 waves of the repeated cross-sectional survey Cultural Change in the Netherlands (CCN, 1965–1996). First, we investigate to what extent the increasing permissiveness is due to cohort replacement and to intra-cohort change. We find that between 1965 and 1980 the change is primarily due to intra-cohort (period) effects, whereas cohort replacement has become more important since 1980. Second, we address the question which social categories constitute the 10% of the population who do not accept voluntary childlessness. Church attendance—and not religiosity or religious socialization—turns out to be the most important factor. Low levels of income and education also negatively affect the acceptance of voluntary childless.     

Endogenous fertility in a model with non-dynastic parental altruism

A model of fertility choice is studied in which the utility of parents depends on how much they consume, on how many children they have and on the consumption of their children. Hence, parents are altruistic towards their children, but in a more limited sense than in the much discussed dynastic fertility model presented by Becker and Barro (1988). The concept of a (subgame perfect) bequest equilibrium is used to solve the non-dynastic model considered here. The steady state birth rate is lower in the non-dynastic model than in the Becker-Barro model. However, the key qualitative predictions concerning the dynamic behavior of fertility are strikingly similar in both models. JEL classification: J13, J11, D90. Received August 17, 1995/Accepted October 20, 1996     

Child labour or school attendance? Evidence from Zambia

In this paper we investigate what affects school attendance and child labour in an LDC, using data for Zambia. Since the data comes from a household survey with information on all household members it allows us to take account of unobserved household effects by introducing household-specific effects in a logit model. The empirical analysis suggests that both economic and sociological variables are important determinants for the choice between school attendance and child labour. In particular, we find some support for the hypothesis that poverty forces households to keep their children away from school. JEL classification: J24, I21, O15 Received May 20, 1996/Accepted January 2, 1997     

Work disability and migration in the early years of welfare reform

The inter- and intra-state migration of American families with work-disabled members is a neglected area of empirical study. Longitudinal migration and health status data from the 1996 Panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) are merged with state-level welfare policy indicators to investigate migration behavior under welfare reform’s emphasis on requiring work and encouraging reliance on social support networks. We use a nested discrete-choice event history model that incorporates the departure decision and interstate destination choice in a single model that tests the effects of state-level welfare policy and economic opportunity characteristics, with state fixed effects, plus family sociodemographic characteristics and social networks, as the basis for comparing migration of families with and without work disabilities. The results show that although families with disabilities and illnesses are less likely to migrate than other families generally, they are “pushed” to migrate if they live in states that do not exempt them from TANF activities requirements. Furthermore, in-migration is inhibited by stringent state welfare illness exemption rules and high state unemployment rates. Intrastate migration is more likely among families who received family and community social support, regardless of work-disability status.     

Implicit Social Scaling from an Institutional Perspective

The methodological question concerns constructing a cardinal social index, in order to assess performances of social agents, taking into account implicit political judgments. Based on the formal structure of a Choquet’s expected utility, index construction demands quantification of levels of a meaningful ordinal indicator of overall performance. Contrasting common praxis of using equidistant interval scale, level increments are formally interpreted as variations of social utility. The social scaling is implicitly designed over an evaluative-framework, which is depicted using specifications from the policy-maker. In this setting, criteria of policy are assumed, then intentions, requirements and priorities, perhaps of antagonistic stakeholders, represented. Then, linear programming is used to search for admissible solutions which would provide a coherent index. Interactive scaling is also delineated in order to elicit an institutional index, which is acknowledged by different social actors.     

Population policy: Authoritarianism versus cooperation

The people whose interests are most adversely affected by frequent bearing and rearing of children are young women. Social changes that expand the decisional power of young women (such as expansion of female literacy, or enhancement of female employment opportunity) can, thus, be major forces in the direction of reducing fertility rates. This “cooperative” route seems to act more securely – and often much faster – than the use of “coercion” in reducing family size and birth rates. This essay examines the comparative evidence from India and China on this subject as well as the interregional contrasts within India. JEL classification: J11, J13, O15 Received August 20, 1996/Accepted November 14, 1996