COMMODITY PRICES AND BANK LENDING

We analyze the transmission of changes in commodity prices to bank lending in a large sample of developing countries. A bank-level analysis shows that a fall in commodity net export prices is associated with a reduction of bank lending, particularly for commodity exporters and during episodes of terms-of-trade decline. We complement this analysis with loan-level data from a credit register, which allows us to identify the effect of a commodity price shock on the supply of credit, controlling for unobserved factors that could drive borrowers' credit demand. Results show that banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit the changes in commodity prices to lending more aggressively. (JEL F30, F34, G21, Q02)     

TO LEAN OR NOT TO LEAN AGAINST AN ASSET PRICE BUBBLE? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009, economists are reconsidering the appropriate role of monetary policy towards equity bubbles. This paper contributes to these deliberations by estimating the response of the stock market to monetary policy tightening by using a Bayesian time-varying VAR model. By introducing the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, we propose a method that estimates its fundamental and bubble components. We find that asset prices will initially fall and eventually rise again but without the risk of feeding the bubble. Counterfactual policy experiments provide additional evidence that monetary policy can lean against equity and housing prices. (JEL E50, E52, E58)     

AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF ASYMMETRIC BEHAVIOR IN CORPORATE DIVIDEND POLICY

Employing three alternative measures of ability to pay, we find support for the Lintner hypothesis that firms pursue a long-run target payout ratio and also that current earnings better explain long-run dividends than cash flows or stock prices. The evidence further indicates that corporations adjust dividends with a ratchet effect, raising them more readily than they lower them. More specifically, when dividends are below target levels, firms move toward equilibrium by increasing them, but when dividends are above target levels, firms approach equilibrium by restricting dividend increases as earnings rise.     

When the Kids Live at Home: Coresidence,Parental Assets,and Economic Insecurity

This study uses National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort data from 1994 through 2012 (N = 16,108 person‐years, 4,671 individuals) to investigate how coresidence with adult children influences asset levels among parents. It applies hybrid mixed effects regression models that partition between‐ and within‐person variation to estimate parental savings and financial assets over time and across different households. The results suggest that coresidence with adult children led to decreases in parental assets and savings. In the years in which their children lived at home, parents held 24% less in financial assets and 23% less in savings when compared with the years when adult children were not present. By expanding previous research that shows a relationship between increasing economic insecurity, limited wealth, and the rise in coresidence among young adults, this study also offers broader implications for the interconnectivity of financial hardship across generations.     

EMPIRICAL STUDIES OF DEPRECIATION

This paper surveys empirical research on depreciation based on an econometric model of asset prices introduced by Hall in 1971 and shows how Hall's model provides a vehicle for unifying research on constant quality price indices and depreciation. An additional objective of the paper is to illustrate the use of this research in constructing an integrated system of income, product, and wealth accounts. A system of vintage accounts, like that originated by Christensen and Jorgenson in 1973, is the key to successful integration.     

LIQUIDITY RISK AND TIME‐VARYING CORRELATION BETWEEN EQUITY AND CURRENCY RETURNS

Using the data of 20 major Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries over time, this article documents new evidence on real equity and real currency prices: higher real returns in the home equity market relative to its foreign counterparts are generally associated with real home currency depreciation at monthly frequency, but this negative correlation breaks down or even reverses during times of relatively higher aggregate economic uncertainty or volatility. This article also argues that a long‐run risks‐type model with time‐varying liquidity risk in stock markets can provide one plausible explanation for the time‐varying correlation structure. (JEL E43, F31, G12, G15)     

ERRORS IN OUTPUT DEFLATORS REVISITED: UNIT VALUES AND THE PRODUCER PRICE INDEX

Output prices are mismeasured because of inadequate adjustments for changes in product quality. Thus, when quality improves, inflation will be systematically over-stated. In this study, I find that the most commonly used indicator of the rate of inflation, the Producer Price Index, misses about 40 percent of the change in quality. However, I also find that the mismeasurement of output prices is constant over time, implying that errors of measurement are not a significant determinant of either the slowdown or recent acceleration in manufacturing productivity.     

DISINFLATION,INEQUALITY, AND WELFARE IN A TANK MODEL

We investigate the redistributive and welfare effects of disinflation in a two-agent New Keynesian model characterized by limited asset market participation and wealth inequality. We highlight two key mechanisms driving our long-run results: (1) the cash in advance constraint on firms working capital; (2) dividends endogeneity. These two channels point in opposite directions. Lower inflation softens the cash in advance constraint and, by raising labor demand, lowers inequality. But disinflation also raises dividends and this increases inequality. The disinflation is always welfare-improving for asset holders. We obtain ambiguous results for non-asset holders, who suffer substantial consumption losses during the transition. (JEL E31, E5, D3, D6)     

Do Market Returns Influence Risk Tolerance? Evidence from Panel Data

This study used the 1992?C2006 waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to investigate changes in risk tolerance levels over time in response to stock market returns. Findings indicate that risk tolerance tends to increase when market returns increase and decrease when market returns decrease. Individuals who change their risk tolerance in this manner are likely to invest in stocks when prices are high and sell when prices are low. Researchers, employers, financial educators and practitioners should help investors overcome the bias of overweighting recent news of market performance.     

SPENDING WISELY? HOW RESOURCES AFFECT KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTION IN UNIVERSITIES

Every year billions of dollars are spent on research grants to produce new knowledge in universities. However, as grants may also affect other research funding, the effects of financial resources on knowledge production remain unclear. To uncover how financial resources affect knowledge production, we study the effects of research spending itself. Utilizing the legal constraints on university spending from an endowment we develop an instrumental variables approach. Our approach instruments for university research spending with time‐series variation in stock prices interacted with cross‐sectional variation in initial endowment market values for research universities in the United States. Our analysis reveals that research spending has a substantial positive effect on the number of papers produced, but not their impact. We also demonstrate that research spending effects are quite similar at private and public universities. (JEL H5, I2, O3)     

Social capital and the reproduction of economic inequality in polarized societies

This paper explores the idea that the distribution of wealth across social groups fundamentally affects the evolution of economic inequality. By providing microfoundations suitable for this exploration, this paper hopes to enhance our understanding of when social forces contribute to the reproduction of economic inequality. In tackling this issue, this paper offers contributions in two domains. First, it models social capital as a real capital asset with direct use and collateral values. Second, it extends the concepts of identity, alienation and polarization originally advanced by Esteban and Ray (Esteban, J.M. and Ray, D.: On the measurement of polarization, Econometrica 62(4) (1994), 819–851). This generalization permits us to consider the multiple characteristics that shape social identity, inclusion and exclusion. It also underwrites a higher-order measure of socio-economic polarization that permits us to explore the hypothesis that economic inequality is most pernicious and persistent when it is socially embedded. Holding constant the initial levels of economic polarization and wealth inequality, we show that higher socio-economic polarization increases subsequent income and wealth inequality. Far from being a distributionally neutral panacea for missing markets, social capital in this model may itself generate exclusion and deepen existing economic cleavages.     

Incomplete property rights and overinvestment

I consider a model in which an asset owner must decide how much to invest in his asset mindful of the fact that an encroacher??s valuation of the asset is increasing in the asset owner??s investment. Due to incomplete property rights, the encroacher and asset owner engage in a contest over the control of the asset after investment has taken place. A standard result is that the asset owner will underinvest in the asset relative to the first-best level of investment when property rights are complete. Contrary to this standard result, I find that when the interaction between the asset owner and the encroacher is infinitely repeated and the encroacher has some bargaining power over the size of the transfer from the asset owner to him, then there is a cooperative equilibrium in which the asset owner finds it optimal to overinvest in the asset when property rights are incomplete relative to the first-best level of investment when property rights are complete. Overinvestment is used to induce cooperation. However, this result depends on the encroacher??s bargaining power or, more generally, whether the transfer is an increasing function of investment.     

SPECULATIVE STORAGE, FUTURES MARKETS, AND THE STABILITY OF COMMODITY PRICES

A theoretical dynamic model is developed that integrates the micro-behavior of commodity and futures speculators into the simultaneous determination of cash and futures prices in a storable commodity market. The model is used to demonstrate the way in which the introduction of a futures market, by affecting the decisions of speculative inventory holders, alters the distribution of spot prices and to elucidate the conditions that render futures trading stabilizing for cash prices.     

IMPACT OF COMPETITION,INVESTMENT, AND REGULATION ON PRICES OF MOBILE SERVICES: EVIDENCE FROM FRANCE

In this paper, we assess the impact of competition, investment, and regulation on prices of mobile services in France. We estimate hedonic price regressions using data on tariff plans offered by the main mobile telecommunications operator in France between May 2011 and December 2014. In this time period, the obtained quality‐adjusted price index decreased by about 42.8% as compared to a decline in weighted average prices without quality‐adjustment of 8.7%. In a second step, we relate the quality‐adjusted prices to a set of competition, investment, and regulation variables and find that the launch of 4G networks by mobile operators was the main driver of price reductions for classic tariffs with commitment. Low‐cost tariffs without commitment which were introduced to pre‐empt the entry of low‐cost competitor declined at the time of entry. Moreover, we find that regulation, which is approximated by the level of mobile termination charges and international roaming price caps for voice and data, has a joint significant impact on quality‐adjusted prices. In percentage terms, competition is responsible for about 23.4% of total price decline and investments in 4G for 56.1%. We conclude that the reduction in quality‐adjusted prices in the last years was largely caused by competition between operators for a new 4G technology and by entry of a fourth low‐cost operator. (JEL L13, L50, L96)     

PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND RISK ATTITUDES: AN EXPERIMENT

Using financial incentives, we study how portfolio choice (how much to invest in a risky asset) depends on three well-known behavioral phenomena: ambiguity aversion, the illusion of control, and myopic loss aversion. We find evidence that these phenomena are present and test how the level of investment is affected by these motivations; at the same time, we investigate whether participants are willing to explicitly pay a small sum of money to indulge preferences for less ambiguity, more control, or more frequent feedback/opportunities to choose the investment level. First, the observed preference for "control" did not affect investment behavior and in fact disappeared when participants were asked to actually pay to gain more control. Second, while people were indeed willing to pay for less ambiguity, the level of ambiguity did not influence investment levels. Finally, participants were willing to pay to have more frequent feedback opportunities to change their portfolio, even though prior research has shown that people invest less in risky assets (and earn less) in this case . ( JEL B49, C91, D81, G11, G19)     

FORECASTING WITH SOCIAL MEDIA: EVIDENCE FROM TWEETS ON SOCCER MATCHES

Social media is now used as a forecasting tool by a variety of firms and agencies. But how useful are such data in forecasting outcomes? Can social media add any information to that produced by a prediction/betting market? We source 13.8 million posts from Twitter, and combine them with contemporaneous Betfair betting prices, to forecast the outcomes of English Premier League soccer matches as they unfold. Using a microblogging dictionary to analyze the content of Tweets, we find that the aggregate tone of Tweets contains significant information not in betting prices, particularly in the immediate aftermath of goals and red cards. (JEL G14, G17)     

Exploring the experiences and dynamics of an unconditional cash transfer for low-income mothers: A mixed-methods study

ABSTRACT

Little is understood about how an unconditional cash transfer might operate and affect behavior among low-income parents of infants in the United States. We investigate these questions using data from a random-assignment pilot study (N?=?30) in which unconditional cash transfers were distributed monthly on debit cards to two groups of low-income parents in New York City during the first 12 months of their newborns’ lives. Mothers were randomized to receive either $100 per month or $20 per month. Mothers distinguished spending the cash transfer on essentials vs. extras, such as going out to dinner with family. The monthly cash transfer “tided them over,” even at the lower amount of $20, especially when income from other sources ran short at the end of the month. Some mothers reported saving money for unexpected expenses.     

The Importance of Ownership Arrangements in U.S. Agriculture1

Abstract According to a number of observers of the U.S. economy, large publicly traded corporations can be viewed as a social problem primarily because of their association with the concentration of wealth and power. In agriculture, nine states have laws which restrict or proscribe public corporations from engaging in farming. Also, groups and individuals have attempted to preserve non-corporate production enterprises in agriculture through the establishment of direct markets such as farmers' markets. Proponents of such efforts believe public corporations have negative economic impacts; opponents of such efforts, especially efforts to establish and retain anti-corporate farming laws, argue that corporations can provide economic benefits to rural areas. These debates beg the question of whether ownership and direct marketing arrangements have important influences on economic outcomes such as levels of cash returns from farming and increases in the number of farms realizing cash gains. Using multi-year, county-level data from the Census of Agriculture, this study finds that, even when holding a number of important variables constant, ownership arrangements, as well as the (interaction between the percentage of total sales which are direct sales and the percentage of farms selling directly, are important determinants of both net cash returns and the percentage of farms realizing cash gains.     

SENTIMENT BIAS AND ASSET PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM SPORTS BETTING MARKETS AND SOCIAL MEDIA

Previous research using attendance‐based proxies for sentiment bias in sports betting markets confirmed the presence of investor sentiment in these markets. We use data from social media (Facebook “Likes”) to proxy for sentiment bias and analyze variation in bookmakers' prices investor sentiment. Based on betting data from seven professional sports leagues in Europe and North America, we find evidence that bookmakers increase prices for bets on teams with relatively more Facebook “Likes,” indicating the presence of price‐insensitive investors with sentiment bias. These price changes do not affect informational efficiency in this market. (JEL L81, G14)     

ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION AND THE EXCESS VOLATILITY OF STOCK PRICES

Evidence suggests the volatility of stock prices cannot be accounted for by information about future dividends. We argue that some of the volatility of stock prices in excess of fundamentals results from fluctuations in the amount of public information over time. Our model assumes that dividends and consumption are constant in the aggregate but that there are good firms and bad firms whose identity may be unknown to the public, as in Akerlof's "lemons" problem. In that case, the collective valuation of the constant dividend stream depends on the degree of informational asymmetry.