ELECTORAL CONTRIBUTIONS AND THE COST OF UNPOPULARITY

When considering electoral campaigns, candidates receiving contributions from relatively unpopular industries should be regarded less favorably by voters that have information on the sources of funding. To offset this unpopularity effect, politicians may either demand more money for campaign advertising from these industries in order to persuade less informed voters, or shy away from unpopular contributors to avoid losing the support of the informed electorate. Our model predicts that the first effect dominates, and electoral contributions are increasing in industry unpopularity. By using U.S. House elections data and different identification strategies, we provide robust evidence in favor of our predictions. (JEL D72, P16)     

Citizens with learning disabilities and the right to vote

This paper asks, in the context of recent legislative changes, what can be done to support more citizens in England and Wales with learning disabilities to vote in national elections? This issue is addressed through (i) a review of recent disability access campaigns that have reported discrimination against, and the under‐representation of, adults with disabilities in UK elections; (ii) a review of recent research undertaken in the USA into the assessment of competence to vote and research undertaken in England that conclusively documents the under‐representation of voters with learning disabilities in the 2005 general election. It is proposed that a ‘functional approach’ to developing an individual's capacity to vote could help to fulfil Article 29 of the United Nations' Convention on the rights of persons with disabilities that gives all people the same political rights.     

Presidential Priming: Incumbent and Challenger Advertising

This study focuses on the influence of television advertising to prime voters to evaluate candidates based on policy issues or personal image attributes. Results come from a content analysis of presidential political advertisements, newspaper stories, network news stories, and a national survey during the 1996 campaigns. The study found support for advertising priming in the aggregate. Mixed support was found for the influence of individual campaign advertising and the news media to influence voters' evaluation of the candidates. The analysis did show a strong role for the traditional party challenger to prime voters about himself and his major opponent.     

VOTING EXPRESSIVELY

We address a common criticism directed toward models of expressive voting that they are ad hoc in nature. To that end, we propose a foundation for expressive behavior that is based on a novel theory of social preferences under risk. Under our proposal, expressive considerations in behavior arise from the particular way in which risky social prospects are assessed by decision‐makers who want to interpret their choices as moral. To illustrate the scope of our framework, we use it to address some key questions in the literature on expressive voting: why, for expressive considerations, might voters vote against their self‐interest in large elections and why might such elections exhibit a moral bias. Specifically, we consider an electoral set‐up with two alternatives and explain why, when the size of the electorate is large, voters may want to vote for the alternative they deem morally superior even if this alternative happens to be strictly less preferred, in an all‐inclusive sense, than the other. (JEL D01, D03, D81, D72, A13)     

Contending with the “Double Handicap”

SUMMARY

This article explores the impact of a quarter century of gender politics in presidential elections in the United States stressing the dual importance of differences between men and women, the gender gap, and women as a political force as they have come not only to exceed men in their voting numbers but also in their turnout rate. It reviews the way women's votes have affected presidential campaigns, drawing attention to the effect women's and men's votes have had on the Electoral College which is what counts in presidential elections. It raises the important question of what impact the attention to women voters has had on the public policies of administrations between elections.     

THE AGENCY OF POLITICS AND SCIENCE

We study a principal‐agent relationship between a politician and a researcher that captures stylized facts regarding the involvement of politics into scientific research. The politician has some ideal policy that he would like to implement, but needs to contract with a researcher to choose a policy that is supported by scientific advice. We study the implemented contracts under symmetric and under asymmetric information about the researcher's ability and concern for reputation, and discuss with which types of researchers the politician will contract. We identify several conflicts between the interests of voters and those of the politician. (JEL D72, D82, D83)     

Effects of Political Advertising

Relationships between broadcast advertising exposure and variouscognitive and affective orientations were assessed in a surveyof voters during a congressional election campaign. Exposurewas moderately correlated with political knowledge and interest.Highly exposed voters were somewhat more likely to attach higheragenda priorities to issues and candidate attributes emphasizedin the commercials. Personal affect toward each candidate wasmildly associated with advertising exposure frequency.     

POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS AND THE KNOWLEDGE-GAP HYPOTHESIS

The knowledge-gap hypothesis suggests that a sudden infusionof information into a social setting serves to increase, ratherthan decrease, the gap in knowledge between high- and low-statusvoters. Political campaigns represent an especially appropriatesetting to test this hypothesis, because of (1) the increasedinformation that generally characterizes campaigns and (2) theimportant political consequences to lower status voters if thehypothesis is correct. A two-wave panel survey during the 1978New Hampshire gubernatorial campaign finds that on one issuethe knowledge gap increased during the campaign, while on another,perhaps less complex issue, the gap remained constant. Thesedifferences are hypothesized to be a function of different diffusioncurves of the high- and low-status voters, with implicationsfor the varying lengths of time states allow for campaigns betweenthe primary and general elections.     

An experiment on coordination in multi-candidate elections: The importance of polls and election histories

Do polls simply measure intended voter behavior or can they affect it and, thus, change election outcomes? Do candidate ballot positions or the results of previous elections affect voter behavior? We conduct several series of experimental, three-candidate elections and use the data to provide answers to these questions. In these elections, we pay subjects conditionally on election outcomes to create electorates with publicly known preferences. A majority (but less than two-thirds) of the voters are split in their preferences between two similar candidates, while a minority (but plurality) favor a third, dissimilar candidate. If all voters voted sincerely, the third candidate — a Condorcet loser — would win the elections. We find that pre-election polls significantly reduce the frequency with which the Condorcet loser wins. Further, the winning candidate is usually the majority candidate who is listed first on the poll and election ballots. The evidence also shows that a shared history enables majority voters to coordinate on one of their favored candidates in sequences of identical elections. With polls, majority-preferred candidates often alternate as election winners.     

HOW DOES ADVERTISING AFFECT MARKET PERFORMANCE? A NOTE ON GENERIC ADVERTISING

We propose a novel approach to estimating the effect of advertising on market performance that relies on the preferences of firms participating in generic advertising programs. Generic advertising campaigns provide a unique window to observe advertising effects on market performance, because rotations in market demand systematically redistribute advertising rents among firms according to observable characteristics on producer size. We examine producer attitudes towards generic advertising in the “Beef. It's What's for Dinner!” campaign of the U.S. Beef Checkoff program, the subject of the recent and controversial Supreme Court ruling on generic advertising as a form of government speech. We find the likelihood producers favor an expansion of the advertising program increases in their operating scale. This finding is consistent with an advertising campaign that has led to a counterclockwise rotation of market demand and a commensurate increase in market performance in the U.S. beef market. (JEL L1, M37, Q13)     

CANDY ELASTICITY: HALLOWEEN EXPERIMENTS ON PUBLIC POLITICAL STATEMENTS

We conducted experiments during trick‐or‐treating on Halloween in a predominantly liberal neighborhood in the weeks preceding the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. We decorated one side of a house porch with McCain material in 2008 (Romney material in 2012) and the other side with Obama material. Children were asked to choose a side, with half receiving the same candy on either side and half receiving more candy to go to the McCain/Romney side. This yields a “candy elasticity” of children's political support. Results vary by age: children ages nine and older were two to three times more likely to choose the Republican candidate when offered double candy for voting Republican compared to when offered equal candy, whereas children ages eight and under were particularly sticky and did not waver in their choice of candidate despite the offer of double candy. (JEL C93, D72, D12)     

Effects of pronoun use in campaign advertisements on young Taiwanese voters

Campaign advertisements can greatly influence voters; however, the effects of subtle variations in advertising content have rarely been investigated. This study was conducted to quantify the effects of minor variations in pronoun use on young Taiwanese voters’ responses to campaign advertisements. Also examined were the moderating effects of voters’ perceptions of the candidate’s personality characteristics as shaped by the candidate’s physical appearance and the camera angle used in the candidate’s photo. The experimental results indicated that the use of the pronoun “we” in a campaign advertisement led to a closer perceived relationship between voters and the candidate compared to the inclusive pronoun “you,” which generated better advertising effects. Moreover, the results showed that when the voters visually inferred that a candidate had higher competence or when the candidate was photographed from a low angle, which created the perception of greater power, the use of the pronoun “we” was more suitable. The inclusive “you,” in contrast, was more suitable for candidates that were perceived by the voters to have greater warmth or for candidates that were photographed from a high angle, which created the perception of less power.     

CONTRACT DESIGN AND SELF‐CONTROL WITH ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION

We study optimal contracting by a monopolistic seller of investment goods to a time‐inconsistent consumer and, in doing so, introduce asymmetric information to the model of DellaVigna and Malmendier (2004) . We find (1) the below‐marginal‐cost‐pricing rule may fail for a low‐value consumer; (2) the firm's profit is no longer unaffected by the consumer's short‐run impatience, as the latter is sophisticated. We find that there is an important threshold value of short‐run patience. When the consumer's short‐term patience is below this level, then, as the patience increases, the firm suffers. When the consumer's short‐run patience is above this threshold, then, as it increases, the firm benefits. Finally, we show that unlike monopoly, perfect competition with asymmetric information achieves the first‐best outcome. (JEL D03, D82, D91)     

THE ILLUSION OF INTIMACY TELEVISION AND THE ROLE OF CANDIDATE PERSONAL QUALITIES IN VOTER CHOICE

The role of television in the increased candidate orientednessof voters in U.S. presidential elections was examined usingdata from eight National Election Studies conducted by the SurveyResearch Center at The University of Michigan. The importanceof candidate personal qualities and traits was estimated usingvoter responses to open-ended questions about the candidates.Candidate personal qualities became more important for televisiondependent voters during the 1960s, and in each post-1964 electionwere less important for voters who relied on newspapers thanfor those who relied on television. The differences did notappear to be a function of the higher level of education ofnewspaper readers.     

Two-stage electoral competition in two-party contests: persistent divergence of party positions

Models of party competition building on Downs (1957) have recognized that there are centrifugal and centripetal forces in party competition; but one such force, the existence of party primaries, has been remarkably neglected in recent literature. We consider party/candidate policy divergence in two-party competition in one dimension where there is a two-stage electoral process, e.g., a primary election (or caucus) among party supporters to select that party’s candidate followed by a general election. We develop a model in which (some or all) voters in the primary election are concerned with the likelihood that the primary victor will be able to win the general election and being concerned with that candidate’s policy position. This model is similar in all but technical details to that given in an almost totally neglected early paper in Public Choice Coleman (1971) 11:35–60, but we offer important new results on electoral dynamics for candidate locations. In addition to accounting for persistent party divergence by incorporating a more realistic model of the institutions that govern elections in the U.S., the model we offer gives rise to predictions that match a number of important aspects of empirical reality such as frequent victories for incumbents and greater than otherwise expected electoral success for the minority party in situations where that party has its supporters more closely clustered ideologically than the supporters of the larger party (in particular, with a concentration of voters between the party mean and the population mean).A much earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the Public Choice Society, Long Beach, California, March 24–26, 1995. We are indebted to Dorothy Green and to Clover Behrend-Gethard for bibliographic assistance and to Nicholas Miller and the late Peter Aranson for helpful suggestions.     

The Undeserving Rich: “Moral Values” and the White Working Class1

White working‐class citizens who vote for the Republican Party have been fodder for much political discussion and speculation recently, and a debate has arisen about the role that “moral values” played in the political decision making of this segment of voters. In this article, we defend a version of the moral values claim. We show that although the Republicans’ policies are unpopular, they are bundled with an overarching moral framework that is extremely resonant to this set of voters, and we use in‐depth interviews to uncover this framework. A key feature of this framework, on which in the 2004 presidential election George W. Bush scored high and John Kerry scored low, is the appropriate attitude to wealth, which serves as an indicator for a candidate’s general moral philosophy and as a heuristic about whether the candidate will govern with working‐class voters’ interests in mind. National Election Studies data support the argument that this was a key influence on the voting decision in 2004, even controlling for voters’ partisan identification.     

Pre-election polling and third party candidates

I analyze voters’ incentives in responding to pre-election polls with a third party candidate. Third party supporters normally have an incentive to vote strategically in the election by voting for one of the major candidates. But these voters would vote third party if the third party candidate is doing surprisingly well in the polls. Because voters are more likely to vote third party if the third party candidate is doing well in polls, voters who like the third party candidate best have an incentive to claim they will vote third party in the polls so that more voters will ultimately vote third party in the election. The differing incentives faced during polls and elections accounts for why third party candidates do better in polls than in elections.     

Elections in Post-Communist Ukraine, 1994–2004: An Overview

The paper attempts a comprehensive and theoretically grounded analysis of all parliamentary and presidential elections carried out in Ukraine in the decade 1994 to 2004. It is organized into four sections. The first deals with the electoral system, how it came into being and has been amended, how it translates votes into seats, the "effective number" of political parties in the electorate and the legislature, and the battle over the electoral system itself during the presidency of Leonid Kuchma. In the second section, voting behaviour of the Ukrainian electorate is examined. Using voting data, along with the results of public opinion surveys and reports on the conduct of the various election campaigns, the paper sorts through the relevant determinants of voting choice to identify the most pertinent ones as they operate in the Ukrainian context. Generally speaking, such determinants are: (1) background social characteristics of the voters, including the regional and ethnic factors; (2) the public's assessments of the current political and economic conditions in the country; (3) individual voters' partisan identification and opinions on prominent issues; (4) their retrospective evaluations of the incumbents; (5) leadership qualities of the contenders; and (6) prospective evaluations of parties and candidates as to their expected performance in office. To determine which of these are consistently more important is an essential aim of the paper. The third section assesses the degree to which accountability has been achieved in any of these elections—those to the Verkhovna Rada of 1994, 1998, and 2002, and the presidential elections of 1994, 1999, and 2004. A penultimate section is devoted to evaluating the policy consequences of these elections: what difference have Ukraine's elections made to policies over the past decade? In the concluding portion, a characterization of the emerging party system is given along with a summing-up on the voting behaviour of Ukrainians in the post-communist era.     

MARKET STRUCTURE AND MEDIA DIVERSITY

We estimate a mixed logit model of the demand for local news service. Results provide evidence that suggest the representative consumer values more diverse news, more coverage of multicultural issues, and more information on community news, and has a distaste for advertising. Demand estimates are used to calculate the impact on consumer welfare from a marginal decrease in the number of independent television stations that lowers the amount of diversity, multiculturalism, community news, and advertising. Consumer welfare decreases, but the losses are smaller in large markets. For example, small‐market consumers lose $45 million annually while large‐market consumers lose $13 million. (JEL C9, C25, L13, L82, L96)