YOUNG “STARS” IN ECONOMICS: WHAT THEY DO AND WHERE THEY GO

We construct a data set of job flyouts for junior economists between 2013 and 2018 to investigate three aspects of the market for “stars.” First, what is the background of students who become stars? Second, what type of research does the top of the market demand? Third, where do these students take jobs? Among other results, we show that stars are more likely to be international and male than PhDs overall, that theoretical and semi‐theoretical approaches remain dominant, that American programs both produce the most stars and hire even more, that almost none are hired by the private sector, and that there is a strong shift toward having pre‐PhD full‐time academic research jobs. (JEL A11, A12, A23, J24)     

ON THE SEARCH FOR TALENT IN ACADEMIC LABOR MARKETS: EASILY OBSERVABLE LATER‐GRADUATE STUDY OUTCOMES AS PREDICTORS OF EARLY‐CAREER PUBLISHING,PLACEMENT, AND TENURE

Three easily observed later‐graduate study outcomes, working with a prominent advisor, publishing while in graduate school, and coauthoring with the advisor are demonstrated to be significant determinants of early‐career publishing success for a sample of nearly 3,000 Ph.D. recipients from more than 100 domestic programs between 1990 and 1993. Out‐of‐sample predictions for 681 Ph.D. recipients from the class of 1994 indicate that these easily observed later‐graduate study signals dramatically improve our ability to forecast which students become prolific and which students fail to publish more than one article. Analyzing initial domestic tenure‐track economics placements indicates that hiring departments placed far more emphasis on Ph.D. program pedigree, leading to an initial tenure rate of less than 50% but eventually nearly three‐fourths currently hold tenured positions in the United States. (JEL J24, J44)     

Career Self‐Efficacy and Perceptions of Parent Support in Adolescent Career Development

The authors examined the relative contributions of both proximal and distal supports to the career interests and vocational self‐efficacy in a multiethnic sample (N = 139) of middle school adolescents. Consistent with Social Cognitive Career Theory, it was found that (a) vocational self‐efficacy and career planning/exploration efficacy consistently predicted young adolescents' career interests across Holland (J. L. Holland, D. R. Whitney, N. S. Cole, & J. M. Richards, 1969) themes; (b) gender and career gender‐typing predicted interests in Realistic, Investigative, and Social careers; and (c) perceived parent support accounted for 29% to 43% of the total unique variance in vocational self‐efficacy for all Holland theme careers.     

Divorced Parents’ Qualitative and Quantitative Reports of Children's Living Arrangements

We use data from a sample of divorced parents in Wisconsin (N = 1,392) to examine how parents describe their children's living arrangements. When the children spend substantial time in both parents’ homes, both parents are less likely to use the phrase live with to describe living arrangements. When children spend most nights with their mother, mothers are more likely than fathers to state that the children live with their mother. Together, these findings suggest that family researchers no longer can rely on simple questions to capture complex living arrangements. We need clearer and more careful question wording and, in some instances, follow‐up questions to accurately describe where children live.     

Rural High School Youth's Access to and Use of School‐to‐Work Programs

Rural youth face numerous barriers that may limit career exposure. School‐to‐work (STW) programs are one tool used to increase exposure and facilitate connections between school and work. Using a nationally representative data set, the authors investigated whether rurality relates to the availability of STW programs and rural youth's program use. Results indicate that most schools provide school‐based services (e.g., career plans/career majors), but few schools offer work‐based services (e.g., internships). Rural schools were more likely to offer vocational–technical prep programs and job shadowing but were less likely to offer school‐based enterprise. After controlling for program availability, the authors found that rural students were less likely to take part in job shadowing and community service. Conclusions are offered for career development research, policy, and practice.     

SELF‐EMPLOYMENT,EFFICIENCY WAGE,AND PUBLIC POLICIES

Empirical evidence suggests that unemployed workers are much more likely to become self‐employed than wage‐employed workers. Also, higher unemployment benefits significantly reduce the rate of self‐employment. This article develops a model of self‐employment which incorporates transitions between unemployment and self‐employment. It integrates two strands of theoretical literature—models of occupational choice and the efficiency wage models. In this model, a higher unemployment benefit reduces the self‐employment rate and the transition rate of unemployed workers to self‐employment, which is consistent with empirical evidence. (JEL J23, J58, J64)     

INTERNATIONAL DEAL EXPERIENCE AND CROSS‐BORDER ACQUISITIONS

I show that corporate directors' human capital facilitates international investments. Directors' experience with cross‐border transactions positively influences firms' decisions to conduct their first cross‐border acquisitions. Cross‐border acquirers are more likely to buy firms headquartered in countries with which the directors have prior deal experience. This effect is strongest for target firms headquartered in culturally and institutionally dissimilar countries. Announced cross‐border acquisitions are received more favorably by financial markets and are more likely to be completed successfully when the announcing firm has a director with cross‐border acquisition experience. These effects are not driven by investment bank involvement in the deal process or by other forms of directors' human capital, and they are robust to endogeneity of director hires. (JEL F23, F21, J24, L23)     

Household Composition Among Elders in Sub‐Saharan Africa in the Context of HIV/AIDS

Cross‐sectional and repeated surveys from household components of Demographic and Health Surveys in sub‐Saharan Africa were examined to determine whether household composition indicators for older adults (N = 52,573), involving offspring and grandchildren, correlated with national levels of AIDS mortality. One in 4 was living with a grandchild whose own parents were absent. Absence was a result of residence elsewhere and parents being deceased. Older adults in countries with a high accumulation of AIDS mortality were more likely to live in a skip‐generation household and with a double‐orphaned grandchild and less likely to live in a 3‐generation household. Change in living arrangements toward skip generation and a double orphaned household was experienced in countries with high accumulation of AIDS mortality.     

MATERNAL LABOR SUPPLY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF PUBLIC PRE‐K: EVIDENCE FROM THE INTRODUCTION OF PREKINDERGARTEN INTO AMERICAN PUBLIC SCHOOLS

In the 1980s and 1990s, many states and districts began to provide funding for prekindergarten (PK) programs for the first time. This paper takes advantage of the staggered timing in program funding to investigate the effect that increased availability of PK programs has on the labor supply of mothers with 4‐year‐olds. I find that mothers with a 4‐year‐old and no younger children were significantly more likely to be in the labor force and employed once PK became available. Mothers with a 4‐year‐old and other younger children were also significantly more likely to be in the labor force and employed. (JEL I20, J01, J20)     

ON GENDER GAPS AND SELF‐FULFILLING EXPECTATIONS: ALTERNATIVE IMPLICATIONS OF PAID‐FOR TRAINING

This paper presents a model of self‐fulfilling expectations by firms and households which generates multiplicity of equilibria in pay and housework time allocation for ex‐ante identical spouses. Multiplicity arises from statistical discrimination exerted by firms in the provision of paid‐for training to workers, rather than from incentive problems in the labor market. Employers' beliefs about differences in spouses' reactions to housework shocks lead to symmetric (ungendered) and asymmetric (gendered) equilibria. We find that: (1) the ungendered equilibrium tends to prevail as aggregate productivity in the economy increases (regardless of the generosity of family aid policies), (2) the ungendered equilibrium could yield higher welfare under some scenarios, and (3) gender‐neutral job subsidies are more effective that gender‐targeted ones in removing the gendered equilibrium. (JEL J16, J70, J71)     

Resilience and Decision‐Making Strategies as Predictors of Career Decision Difficulties

The purpose of this study was to examine resilience and decision‐making strategies as predictors of difficulties experienced during the career decision‐making process. College students (N = 364) responded to measures of resilience, career decision‐making strategies, and career decision difficulties. Results indicated that resilience and decision‐making strategies accounted for 46% of the variance in career decision difficulties. Resilience had a greater influence on problems encountered during decision making than on problems encountered at the outset of the process. Different decision‐making strategies appeared to be related to difficulties encountered at different stages of the decision‐making process. For example, aspiration for an ideal occupation was positively associated only with lack of readiness. Procrastination was the only strategy related to all three decision difficulties: lack of readiness, lack of information, and inconsistent information. The results indicated the importance of decreasing procrastination at all stages of decision making and the need to promote resilience to deal with decision difficulties.     

INCIDENCE AND CONSEQUENCES OF RISK‐TAKING BEHAVIOR IN TOURNAMENTS—EVIDENCE FROM THE NBA

We empirically explore the relevance and efficiency of risk‐taking behavior in tournaments. We use data from the National Basketball Association (NBA) and measure risk‐taking by the fraction of three‐point shots in basketball games. We examine how point differences between teams during games affect their subsequent risk‐taking behavior. It is found that teams that are trailing are more likely to increase their use of three‐point shots. We additionally analyze the consequences of this change in behavior. Enhanced risk‐taking is inefficient in the vast majority of cases and is only beneficial if a team is trailing by a rather large margin. We discuss possible explanations for these decision errors. (JEL M5, D81, J30)     

Wall‐to‐Wall or Patchwork? Linkages: Vehicles of Partnership

Career development services are often poorly interlinked. They overlap, yet they can also be too far apart. They reach out, yet they do not always reach out to those who need the services the most. With examples from Denmark, this article indicates how and why career development services are linked in partnerships at different levels. Is a wall‐to‐wall carpet of career development services to be preferred over a patchwork quilt?     

End‐of‐Life Treatment Preferences Among Older Adults: An Assessment of Psychosocial Influences1

We explore the content and correlates of older adults’ end‐of‐life treatment preferences in two hypothetical terminal illness scenarios: severe physical pain with no cognitive impairment, and severe cognitive impairment with no physical pain. For each scenario, we assess whether participants would reject life‐prolonging treatment, accept treatment, or do not know their preferences. Using data from the 2004 wave of the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (N = 5,106), we estimate multinomial logistic regression models to evaluate whether treatment preferences are associated with direct experience with end‐of‐life issues, personal beliefs, health, and sociodemographic characteristics. Persons who have made formal end‐of‐life preparations, persons with no religious affiliation, mainline Protestants, and persons who are pessimistic about their own life expectancy are more likely to reject treatment in both scenarios. Women and persons who witnessed the painful death of a loved one are more likely to reject treatment in the cognitive impairment scenario only. Consistent with rational choice perspectives, our results suggest that individuals prefer treatments that they perceive to have highly probable desirable consequences for both self and family.     

Couples Who Live Apart: Time/Place Disjunctions And Their Consequences*

Couples who live apart present a unique opportunity to study the consequences of tampering with our culture's marital co-residence norm. Interviews with 37 spouses, representing members of 21 couples who are legally married and who live apart in service to career demands of both, suggest that time and place discontinuities result from two residence living. Two residences mean that spouses are not able to mesh and coordinate time schedules, nor do they share the common base of their co-resident counterparts. The time/place disjunctions that result threaten these marriages' ability to “make sense” to the partners of such unions. This paper examines the sense-jeopardizing consequence of living apart and suggest that this marital form's inherent strains make it a difficult lifestyle.     

Who Is the Residential Parent? Understanding Discrepancies in Unmarried Parents' Reports

Research examining parental reports of children's living arrangements has often relied on information about legally ordered custody agreements following divorce. This analysis used data from matched pairs of parents (N = 1,156) in the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study who live apart to compare mother and father reports of their child's residence 5 years after a nonmarital birth. The authors found that over one third of unmarried parents disagreed about who their child lived with and that conflicting reports were much more likely when fathers spent nights with the mother (an indicator of part‐time cohabitation) and had overnights with the child on their own. The results further suggest that discrepancies in unmarried parents' reports were more closely associated with the complexity and ambiguity of their living situations than with the quality of their relationships with each other. Implications for measuring children's living arrangements in families formed outside of marriage are discussed.     

The Importance of the Coparental Relationship for Nonresident Fathers’ Ties to Children

We examine the importance of the coparental relationship for nonresident fathers’ ties to their children. Using data from Wave 2 of the National Survey of Families and Households, we focus on the link between two dimensions of coparenting, cooperative coparenting and conflict over childrearing, and three dimensions of nonresident father involvement, contact, relationship quality, and responsive fathering. Cooperative coparenting predicts more frequent father‐child contact, which in turn predicts higher relationship quality and more responsive fathering. Conflict over childrearing, however, is not significantly related to nonresident father involvement. Findings are consistent across different groups of children. Results suggest that cooperative coparenting between parents who live apart is associated with stronger ties between nonresident fathers and their children.     

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IDENTITY AND CAREER CHOICE*

Standard economic models tend to be more specific about pecuniary payoffs than nonpecuniary payoffs to education. Based on the ideas of Akerlof and Kranton, we consider a model of career choice and identity where individuals derive nonpecuniary identity payoffs. Using factor analysis on a range of attitude questions, we find two factors related to identity (career orientation and social orientation), which are important for planned educational choices and for observed gender differences. The implication is that policy makers and institutions of higher education need to focus on identity‐related issues rather than just improved financial incentives if they aim at attracting high‐ability youths to certain careers. (JEL I21, J24)     

LOSS AVERSION AND MANAGERIAL DECISIONS: EVIDENCE FROM MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL

Previous research indicates that management changes are important events for organizations, partly because they lead to reversals of poor prior decisions. An unanswered question is why replacing the manager seems to be necessary for reversing poor decisions. One explanation is that managers have an irrational behavioral aversion to admitting mistakes (loss aversion). We test this hypothesis with a research design that mitigates many of the measurement problems associated with investment decisions in traditional corporate settings, and that allows us to distinguish agency cost from loss aversion as explanations. Using Major League Baseball data, we find that new managers, compared to continuing managers, are more likely to divest low‐performing players. Moreover, when the manager is new and the previous manager was responsible for acquiring a player who is underperforming, the likelihood of player divestiture is significantly higher relative to low performers acquired by earlier managers. Experience of the acquiring manager does not affect the likelihood that the manager retains a low performer, suggesting that it is loss aversion, and not career concerns, that motivates acquiring managers to retain low performers. The findings suggest that loss aversion plays a significant role in managerial decisions and managerial turnover. (JEL J6, L8, D8)