12‐Month‐Olds Produce Others' Intended but Unfulfilled Acts

Following Meltzoff's (1995) behavioral reenactment paradigm, this study investigated the ability of 12‐month‐olds (N = 44) to reproduce a model's attempted‐but‐failed actions on objects. Testing was conducted using a novel set of objects designed to enable young infants to readily identify the potential outcome of the model's actions. Infants who saw an adult's attempted‐but‐failed actions now produced her intended outcomes at an equivalent rate to infants who saw the model's completed acts, and significantly more so than infants who either observed an adult manipulating the test apparatus using nontarget actions or who did not see any actions demonstrated on the test apparatus. This result shows that, contrary to previous studies, 12‐month‐olds can produce the intended but unconsummated acts of others.     

Exploring the Unknown: Predicting the Responses of Publics not yet Surveyed

This article argues that cultural change is roughly predictable: to a large extent, it is shaped by a few variables included in a model of cultural modernization that is presented here. The beliefs and values of a society's people are also affected by unique world events and country-specific factors that would not fit into a general model, such as a given society's political parties and leaders, so our predictions will not be precisely accurate. Nevertheless, in this article we will stick our necks out and predict the locations on two major cultural dimensions of all the countries likely to be included in the next wave of the World Values Survey, to be carried out in 2005–2006. Using a simple predictive model based on our revised version of modernization theory, we first ‘predict’ and test the positions that 80 societies should have on a two major dimensions of cross-cultural variation in the most recent wave of surveys (carried out in 1999–2001); we find that our predictions are surprisingly accurate: the average prediction for a given country falls within a small radius of the location that is actually observed on the cross-cultural map (specifically: the average prediction and the actual location fall within a circle that occupies less than two percent of the map's area). We then use this same model to predict the survey responses that we expect to find for 120 countries that are most likely to be surveyed in the next wave of surveys, in 2005–2006. Almost half of these countries have not been included in our previous surveys (and a number have never been covered in any survey of which we are aware). These are genuine blind predictions – which we believe is an important challenge for social scientists. Our predictions will not be exactly correct; in some cases, they will not even be in the right ballpark. But we are confident that in the great majority of cases, they will come much closer to the observed results than would random guesses. We are confident that these a priori predictions will be reasonably close to the results obtained from actual fieldwork, because analysis of data from more than 60 societies surveyed in previous waves of the World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys indicates that cross-cultural differences in basic values have a surprisingly consistent relationship with economic development. The values and beliefs of mass publics vary a great deal cross-nationally, but they tend to vary in a roughly predictable way that can be derived from a revised version of modernization theory.     

Applying the congruence model of organisational change in explaining the change in the Indian economic policies

Abstract

Faced with a dynamic and globalised external economic environment and a deteriorating internal economic environment, the Indian government decided to reform its economic policies. The changes meant overhauling India's economic system by making it more market oriented. This article applies NadlerTushman's Congruence Model of organisational change to the changes in the Indian economic system and attempts to examine the model's validity in large-scale organisational settings. The findings show that although the change process is consistent with the model's features, the model does not recommend any action strategies to handle resistances. Resistances being a significant part of any change process, inclusion of strategies to manage resistances would enhance the applicability of the congruence model.     

Pathways into Bankruptcy: Accumulating Disadvantage and the Consequences of Adverse Life Events

This study combines theories of accumulating disadvantage and economic insecurity using the event of bankruptcy to investigate how certain adverse life events jointly affect inequality. I analyze National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data from 1985 through 2008 to highlight the complexities of financial hardship in the path to bankruptcy. By applying hybrid mixed effects models to parse out within‐ and between‐person variation, I show that, in the case of bankruptcy, financial hardship unfolds over a specific series of events, which can lead to the accumulation of disadvantage connected to changes in employment, marital, and health statuses. I find that bankruptcy results from people's recent experiences of illness and marital dissolution, but not always directly from employment disruption. The effects of job loss on bankruptcy become more apparent as these events accumulate over time and limit wealth creation. The timing of events and their relationship with net worth also influence when a person will file for bankruptcy. As a whole, my findings demonstrate how adverse events and financial hardship lead to bankruptcy through multiple pathways.     

Uncertainty and the Rise of the Work‐Family Dilemma

Existing research argues that women's wages, consumerism, and changing attitudes dismantled the male bread‐winner system. Families' economic need is dismissed with the suggestion that mothers' rhetoric of “need” was a smoke screen to defend against social stigma for working mothers. Drawing on biennial data from 1965 to 1987, I suggest that consumptive certainty of the 1950s and 1960s gave way to economic uncertainty in the 1970s and beyond. Economic uncertainty provided impetus, legitimacy, and justification for young families to adopt new work‐family arrangements. Hence, economic uncertainty is conceptualized as a real circumstance that substantiates families' reasonable perceptions of need.     

Internalising and externalising children's behaviour problems in Britain and the US: relationships to family resources1

A large sample of British children (n=994) of varying ages (7–18 years) and a large sample of American children (n=886) of varying ages (7–16 years) were rated by their mothers using respectively the Rutter Child Scale A and the Behaviour Problems Index both of which cover a variety of behavioural problems. Factor analysis of the behavioural scales distinguished externalising and internalising dimensions of behaviour in both countries. We examined whether children's experiences of family change, cognitive ability and family adversity including economic deprivation were associated with differences in the prevalence of the behavioural dimensions. Mean cognitive scores decreased significantly with increasing level of externalising behavioural problems in British and American children but showed no significant relationship to levels of internalising behaviour problems in either sample. Among American children internalising and externalising behavioural problems were related to experience of non‐intact family structures and measures of family adversity. Externalising behavioural problems were related to measures of family adversity among British boys and girls but were only related to experience of non‐intact family structures in the sample of British girls. Among British girls, internalising behavioural problems were also related to non‐intact family structures. The associations between non‐intact family structures and behavioural problems were independent of measures of economic deprivation in both samples of children. This study documents some of the background factors which affect children's behavioural and cognitive outcomes. Unlike children's family structure economic deprivation can be influenced through policy intervention, and the analysis supports the view that relieving economic deprivation would help improve children's behavioural outcomes. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Migration and Development: Mexico and Turkey

Mexico and Turkey are among the world's leading labor‐sending nations, with about 11 million Mexican‐born and 3.5 million Turkish‐born persons abroad in 2006. After two decades of uneven growth and job creation as well as persisting poverty and inequality, there are debates within both countries asking whether economic reforms have gone far enough to put the economy on a stable footing for sustained and equitable growth, or whether emigration (pressure) will continue. Some Mexicans are seeking to deepen North American Free Trade Agreement, while most Turks support entry into the European Union as a way of speeding economic growth.     

The History and Timing of Depression Onset as Predictors of Young Adult Self‐Esteem

Depression often emerges early in the lifecourse and is consistently shown to be associated with poor self‐esteem. The 3 main objectives of the current study are to (1) evaluate the association between a history major depression and self‐esteem in young adulthood, (2) assess the relationship between timing of depression onset and young adult self‐esteem, and (3) help rule out the alternative interpretation that the relationship between major depression and self‐esteem is due to state dependence bias stemming from recent depressive symptoms and stressful life events. To address these objectives we use data from a 2‐wave panel study based on a community sample of young adults in Miami‐Dade County, Florida (n=1,197). Results indicated that a history of major depression during sensitive periods of social development is associated with negative changes in self‐esteem over a 2‐year period during the transition to young adulthood. Among those with a history of depression, earlier onset was more problematic than later onset for young adult self‐esteem, although the difference disappeared once the level of self‐esteem 2 years prior was controlled. The linkages between the history and timing of depression onset with self‐esteem were observed net of recent depressive symptoms and stressful life events and are thus robust to an alternative interpretation of state dependence. The findings support the argument that major depression, especially if it develops earlier during child‐adolescent development, has negative consequences for one's self‐esteem.     

THE PROTESTANT FISCAL ETHIC: RELIGIOUS CONFESSION AND EURO SKEPTICISM IN GERMANY

During the European sovereign debt crisis, most countries that ran into fiscal trouble had Catholic majorities, whereas countries with Protestant majorities were able to avoid fiscal problems. We find that Christian‐conservative members of the German parliament from constituencies with higher shares of Protestants were more likely to vote against a third bailout for Greece. Survey data show that views on the euro differ between German Protestants and non‐Protestants at the individual level, too. Among Protestants, concerns about the euro have, compared to non‐Protestants, increased during the crisis. We show that this increase in concern is linked to a reduction of Protestants' subjective well‐being. We use the timing of survey interviews and news events in 2011 to account for the endogeneity of euro concerns. Emphasis on moral hazard concerns in Protestant theology may, thus, still shape economic preferences. (JEL D72, E00, I31, Z12)     

AGRICULTURAL TRANSITION AND THE ADOPTION OF PRIMITIVE TECHNOLOGY

This paper tests Jared Diamond's influential theory that an earlier transition from a hunter‐gatherer society to agricultural production induces higher levels of technology adoption. Using a proxy for the geographic diffusion barriers of Neolithic technology and an index of biogeographic endowments to isolate the exogenous component of the timing of agricultural transition, the findings indicate that countries that experienced earlier transitions to agriculture were subsequently more capable of adopting new technologies in 1000 BC, 1 AD, and 1500 AD. These results lend strong support to Diamond's hypothesis. (JEL O30, O40)     

COMMON DRIVERS OF TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM: PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS

This article applies principal component analysis to decompose transnational terrorism during 1970–2007 into common (worldwide) and idiosyncratic (country‐specific) factors. Regardless of alternative thresholds and filtering procedures, a single common factor is related to individual countries' transnational terrorist events. Based on a conventional criterion, Lebanon's transnational terrorism is the key common driver of global transnational terrorist incidents. With a more conservative criterion, four additional countries—United States, Germany, Iraq, and the United Kingdom—are core countries in explaining cross‐sectional correlation across 106 countries' transnational terrorism. The analysis shows that there is a marked cross‐sectional dependence among transnational terrorist incidents worldwide. (JEL C38, H56)     

Economic Dependency and HIV/AIDS Prevalence in the Developing World: A Comparative,Longitudinal Analysis

The HIV/AIDS pandemic has plagued global society for over three decades. While breakthroughs in antiretroviral treatments (ART) have proven effective in suppressing the virus and HIV/AIDS intervention outreach have widened, epidemic control remains unevenly achieved among countries. At least 95 percent of HIV/AIDS sufferers originate from developing countries. Dependency theory suggests that developing countries' reliance on debt, trade, and foreign investments pose negative effects on their populations' health. Guided by dependency theory's propositions, this cross‐national study assesses whether increasing dependence on trade, debt, and foreign direct investment potentially increases adult HIV prevalence in developing countries from 1989 to 2012. Using a sample of over 80 nations, we perform a two‐way fixed‐effects OLS regression to evaluate the impact of increasing debt, trade, and foreign investment on adult HIV prevalence. Total debt, short‐term debt, external debt, and GDP were found to increase HIV prevalence. The findings for debt support dependency theory's predictions concerning the ramifications of global economic inequality on HIV/AIDS prevalence.     

SECTORAL COMPOSITION OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND MACROECONOMIC (IN)STABILITY

This article examines the quantitative interrelations between sectoral composition of public spending and equilibrium (in)determinacy in a two‐sector real business cycle model with positive productive externalities in investment. When government purchases of consumption and investment goods are set as constant fractions of their respective sectoral output, we show that the public‐consumption share plays no role in the model's local dynamics, and that a sufficiently high public‐investment share can stabilize the economy against endogenous belief‐driven cyclical fluctuations. When each type of government spending is postulated as a constant proportion of the economy's total output, we find that there exists a trade‐off between public consumption versus investment expenditures to yield saddle‐path stability and equilibrium uniqueness. (JEL E32, E62, O41)     

Infants' Evolving Representations of Object Motion During Occlusion: A Longitudinal Study of 6‐ to 12‐Month‐Old Infants

Infants' ability to track temporarily occluded objects that moved on circular trajectories was investigated in 20 infants using a longitudinal design. They were first seen at 6 months and then every 2nd month until the end of their 1st year. Infants were presented with occlusion events covering 20% of the target's trajectory (effective occlusion interval ranged from 500–4,000 msec). Gaze was measured using an ASL 504 infrared eye‐tracking system. Results effectively demonstrate that infants from 6 months of age can represent the spatiotemporal dynamics of occluded objects. Infants at all ages tested were able to predict, under certain conditions, when and where the object would reappear after occlusion. They moved gaze accurately to the position where the object was going to reappear and scaled their timing to the current occlusion duration. The average rate of predictive gaze crossings increased with occlusion duration. These results are discussed as a 2‐factor process. Successful predictions are dependent on strong representations, themselves dependent on the richness of information available during encoding and graded representations.     

Individual and institutional push and pull factors as predictors of retirement timing in Europe: A multilevel analysis

The number of retired people in Europe has increased significantly in recent decades. It remains unclear, however, whether individuals are more likely to be pulled toward retirement by their expectations about life after retirement than they are to be pushed out of the labour market due to poor health or dislike of one's job. The fact that retirement timing differs rather considerably between European countries suggests that not only micro, but also macro push (i.e. labour market constraints) and pull (i.e. economic incentives) factors influence retirement decisions. This duality heightens the need to determine the influence of micro-level and macro-level push and pull indicators on the retirement timing of older workers (50 +) in Europe. Results are obtained performing multilevel event history analysis using longitudinal micro data from the first (2004/05) and second (2006/07) waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and macro data derived from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Eurostat. The results indicate that at the individual level, older workers are pushed out due to health problems as well as being attracted towards retirement to spend time with their grandchildren. At the institutional level, financial incentives such as a high implicit tax on continued work and high expenditures on early exit schemes make retirement attractive, whereas the institutional push context is of lesser importance.     

Economic Penalties and Rewards of Family Formation,Gender and Education in the Low‐income Sector in Germany1

This article examines the differential effects of changes in family formations on men's and women's economic vulnerability. The motivating question is whether investments in education provide sufficient resources to escape the risk of poverty in the low‐income sector or if changes in household characteristics are more important determinants of one's living standard. Changes in household characteristics are defined in terms of partners' entry into and exit from households and partners' different labour market profiles. The analysis focuses on households in the low‐income sector in Germany, a population that is at high risk of poverty in a social welfare state that is expected to mitigate the effects of changes in family formation independent of gender. Findings from panel regression analysis demonstrate that women, in contrast to men, benefit economically as much as or more from investing in traditional family formations than in their own labour market position. This is especially the case for women with lower levels of education.     

THE EFFECTS OF MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS AT GRADUATION ON OVEREDUCATION

This article shows that unfavorable economic conditions at graduation decrease the likelihood of a good job‐worker match over a worker's subsequent career. Mismatch is quantified in terms of overeducation by both industry and occupation. The German Socio‐Economic Panel and region‐level unemployment rates from 1994 to 2012 are used. Instrumental variables estimates account for endogenous graduation timing. A single percentage point increase in regional unemployment causes an increase in the probability of overeducation of 1.6–1.7 percentage points for university graduates. Effects for technical tertiary education and apprenticeship graduates are smaller. Labor market entry conditions affect workers for up to 9 years after graduation. (JEL J23, J22, E32, I23)     

Tasks,occupations and wages in OECD countries

This article investigates the links between earnings, human capital and job tasks, using internationally comparable information from the OECD Survey of Adult Skills. The authors use the theoretical framework developed by Autor and Handel (2013) and extend their empirical results to 21 OECD countries. The data allow for a richer characterization of workers' human capital by including both educational attainment and a measure of cognitive skills. Their findings confirm the predictive power of job tasks in explaining wage differences, both between and within occupations, and provide empirical support for the model's prediction in the vast majority of countries.     

Individual and Crossover Effects of Work Schedule Fit: A Within‐Couple Analysis

A couple‐level analysis with a sample of 105 female reduced‐hours physicians and their full‐time–employed husbands found individual and spouse crossover effects: Each spouse's ratings of own schedule fit predict own job‐role quality; wives' ratings of partner/family schedule fit predict their marital‐role quality, with a similar trend for husbands; husbands' ratings of own schedule fit predict wives' marital‐role quality; and husbands' ratings of partner/family schedule fit and wives' ratings of own schedule fit predict husbands' psychological distress. These findings highlight the interdependence of couple members' experiences and illustrate potential costs of wives' trading off time at work for time at home.     

Family Flexibility in Response to Economic Conditions: Fathers' Involvement in Child‐Care Tasks

Recession‐related increases in men's child care are well documented, but supporting evidence describes the last several decades of the 20th century. Changes in family life and in the association between families' economic conditions and the macro economy provide reason to question the continued existence of a “recession effect.” This article evaluates the frequency of married and cohabiting fathers' engagement in the day‐to‐day tasks of child care during the so‐called Great Recession, using data from male respondents to the 2006–2010 National Survey of Family Growth. Results indicated an increase in men's frequency of engagement in physical care and feeding, starting in 2008 and continuing into 2010. The share of men engaged in daily play fell sharply at the recession's onset but rebounded in subsequent years. These results suggest that, even with a narrowing of the gendered division of domestic labor, room remains for families to respond flexibly to economic shifts.