子女需求对城市家庭居住方式的影响

本文使用中国家庭动态跟踪调查2010年初访数据,着重分析了子女需求对城市家庭居住方式的影响。研究发现,子女需求是导致年轻夫妇与父母同住的重要原因,这种需求一方面表现在经济上,尤其是在住房上对父母的依赖;另一方面表现在需要父母分担家务和帮助照料小孩。所以,除了父母的养老需求,子女需求对城市家庭居住选择的影响也同样不容忽视。在现代化和人口流动的背景下,虽然城市家庭有核心化的趋势,但由于当代中国城市家庭依然发挥着不可替代的重要功能,大家庭在未来依然有继续存在的必要性。     

北京市居民对核电的认知与接受意愿——基于日本核泄漏事故背景下的调查

本文采用结构方程模型分析了在日本福岛核电站核泄漏事故的背景下我国居民对核电的认知状况与接受意愿。结果显示,我国居民对核电相关知识了解水平较低,但关注度和兴趣都比较高;公众对核电的感知价值、感知风险和接受意愿也比较高。根据本文的分析,公众对核电的感知价值对其接受意愿有促进作用,提高感知价值的主要途径包括提高公众对核电的卷入程度和信任度;公众对核电的感知风险对其接受意愿具有显著的负向影响,降低感知风险的主要途径在于提高公众对核电的了解程度。     

The symptom‐carrying child as a preserver of the family unit

The aim of this study was to investigate the operational validity of the theoretical concept of the ‘symptom‐carrying child’. Its purpose was to examine whether, and to what extent, the symptom‐carrying child plays a central role in maintaining the internal balance and unity of the family, and whether he holds a focal position in ‘triangulation’. The research hypothesis was based on theories of family therapy, in particular on the concepts of the ‘identified patient’, and ‘triangulation’. Our major question was whether symptomatic children would be more likely than non‐symptomatic children to exhibit greater responsibility and involvement in their parents’ marriage, and as such act as preservers of the family unit. Subjects in each of the groups participating in this study were identified in treatment centres for children and adolescents using the Achenbach Self‐report Questionnaire. Subjects included males and females aged 10–17, who had either internalized or externalized symptoms and no history of organic or psychotic disorders. The research groups also included each child’s parents and the sibling closest in chronological age, who served as an additional control group. A total of 118 children from nuclear, two‐parent families participated in the study. It was found that symptom‐carrying children exhibited greater involvement and responsibility in their parents’ marriage than non‐symptom‐carrying children. Likewise symptomatic children reported that they had greater influence on their parents than children without symptoms.     

The Rules of the Game: The Politics of National Pensions in Korea

This article explores the conditions in which policy changes occur over time. It studies the institutional pathways taken by national pensions in Korea over an extended period by identifying the key moments which have pushed through their development: initiation (1973), implementation (1988) and reform (1998). Public pensions have developed over time in an incremental fashion, bringing an ever‐growing proportion of the population under their umbrella. What accounts for this development? A number of factors may be at work. The elderly population has rapidly increased; the traditional extended family has increasingly become a nuclear one, meaning that what used simply to be a family issue of protecting the elderly has become a social matter; urbanization and industrialization have resulted in an ever‐growing number of life‐time contingencies such as unexpected income losses. Convincing as these socio‐economic accounts may seem, however, they offer only a snapshot, underscoring the politics of national pensions which stretch over long periods. This article seeks to answer how and in whose interest national pensions come on to the political agenda; how they are framed and defined; and how political actors respond to pressures for national pension reform. In each of the three stages, it is suggested, somewhat different institutional rules have operated. Defining institutional rules as ‘the process of who gets represented in the decision‐making processes’, this article identifies the different institutional rules which have played a pivotal role in the social policy‐making processes.     

诸神之争的再阐释:一个社会学的结构视角

世俗化及逆世俗化范式的对立其实蕴含着更大的连续性,即如何理解宗教多元主义背后的诸神之争,总的来说,韦伯之后那些解释宗教变迁的理论范式均未突破韦伯对宗教的比较研究范畴,难以在当前复杂而多元的文化环境下为个人提供总体指导,但是二者共同揭露了诸神之争条件下西方宗教工具理性和价值理性交互作用所促成的理性化的动力机制,即西方宗教维护自身价值理性的方式从中世纪教会主导的政治性垄断过渡到现代性条件下宗教多元主义的市场化竞争。     

The influence of an older sibling on preschoolers’ lie‐telling behavior

In the present study, children’s (2‐ to 5‐years old) lie‐telling was examined in relation to theory of mind (first‐order false belief understanding), executive functioning (measuring inhibitory control in conjunction with working memory), and presence of siblings in the home (no siblings vs. siblings; younger siblings vs. older siblings).  Lie‐telling was observed using a temptation resistance paradigm. Overall, of the 152 (74.9%) children who peeked at the toy, 73 (48%) lied during the temptation resistance paradigm. Children with higher scores on measures of first‐order false belief understanding, and measures that relied on inhibitory control, were more likely to lie compared to their truthful counterparts.  Additionally, children with older siblings were more likely to lie to the research assistant, and this relationship was independent of performance on cognitive tasks. Overall, results demonstrate that having an older sibling has an independent, direct effect on the development of young children’s lie‐telling abilities, irrespective of cognitive ability. These findings support the argument that lie‐telling is a behavior that is facilitated by both cognitive and social factors.     

美国核政策调整与国际核不扩散机制的前景

国际核不扩散机制是美国防止核扩散,限制对手核力量以实现自身利益的重要手段,是美国维系其主导的世界核秩序的重要干预变量;而核不扩散机制的内在运行逻辑,也使得美国核政策成为决定该机制发展方向的最主要变量。因此,奥巴马政府核政策的调整,势必对核不扩散机制的维持和发展产生深刻影响。中国是现行核不扩散机制的重要参与方,美国核政策的调整必将通过国际核不扩散机制这一干预变量给中国造成直接或间接影响。     

The impact of financial sanctions: The case of Iran

This study provides a detailed analysis of the impact of financial sanctions on publicly traded companies. We consider the effect of imposing and lifting sanctions on the target country’s traded equities and examine the differences in the reaction of politically connected firms and those without such connections. The paper focuses on Iran due to (1) its sizable financial markets, (2) imposition of sanctions of varying severity and duration on private and state-owned companies, (3) the significant presence of politically connected firms in the stock market, and (4) the unique event of the 2015 nuclear deal, resulting in fairly rapid lifting of a sizable portion of imposed sanctions. We find that sanctions affect politically connected firms more than ordinary firms, have lasting negative effects on profitability ratios, and that politically connected firms stock prices bounce back more slowly after removal of sanctions. Firms targeted by financial sanctions decrease their leverage and increase their cash holding to manage their perceived increase in risk profile.     

安全结构视野下的朝核问题走向

冷战结束以后核危机之所以在朝鲜半岛反复发生、僵持不决,主要与半岛安全结构的失衡有关。处于弱势地位的朝鲜希望借助核武器恢复安全结构的均衡,而处于强势地位的美国则希望保持既有优势,甚至一度希望改变朝鲜体制,完全颠覆现有安全结构。中、韩作为朝核问题中的两个重要当事国,并不希望看到朝鲜拥有核武器,也不愿看到朝鲜的崩溃,是安全结构问题上的维持现状者。正是这种安全结构上的利益分歧与博弈,使得朝核问题成为地区安全局势中的一个持久热点。     

“无核世界”构想及其区域性实践——基于东南亚无核区的分析

"无核世界"构想是一种要求在限制核武器扩散的基础上,对已有核武器进行严格控制并逐步销毁,最终彻底消灭核武器,使国际社会回归到没有核武器的世界的政治主张。半个多世纪以来,"无核世界"构想在塑造全球政治安全环境、培育和平理念、推动核裁军方面发挥了重要作用。虽然当前"无核世界"构想尚难以实现,但在地区层面,无核区在一定意义上实现了"无核世界"构想。东南亚无核区是冷战后核扩散形势严峻的亚洲地区建立的首个无核区,对缓和亚洲地区的核扩散形势起到了积极的作用。本文认为,在国际政治现实下,无核区的建立必将成为实现无核世界的重要路径选择。     

农民工社会认同的决定因素研究：基于上海的实证分析

本文首次从国际移民的涵化理论视角对农民工的社会认同方式及决定因素进行探讨,通过对上海市农民工抽样调查数据的实证分析发现,农民工作为国家内部城乡移民的重要组成部分,其社会认同存在以户籍为基础的制度性约束和以资源匮乏为特征的能动性限制。农民工社会认同主要受文化态度、社会交往、经济成功和社会环境四类变量的影响,农民工的个体人口统计特征也会影响城市认同的意愿。当地语言的熟练程度、与当地人交朋友的意愿（而非与外省市的农民工交朋友）、类似群体的收入地位水平、感知到的社会歧视程度和参与保险的程度都成为重要的决定因素。因此,公共政策的制定与执行应该要有助于农民工的心理层面的社会认同的转变,尤其是从“外地人”向“本地人”的认知转型。     

“The Persistence of Parent Repayment” and the Anticipation of Filial Obligations of Care in Two Thai Provinces

With an accelerated and sustained decline in fertility and an increase in life expectancy, Thailand has entered its aging phase at a rapid pace. This raises an important question of who should care for the increasing elderly population. Using a survey of adults aged 16–64 years (n = 742) in two provinces in the north‐east (Kalasin) and south (Phang Nga) of Thailand, this paper explores the expectations that individuals have from their children when they become very old. Only one‐third of the respondents expected to live with their children in old age and only one‐fifth anticipated financial assistance. Less than half of them expected personal care and practical care from their children (43% and 38%, respectively). The expectations varied substantially by the number of children and income, with those with higher income reporting lower expectation. Those living in Kalasin, a much poorer province than Phang Nga, had greater expectations from their children in old age. This suggests that, for those with less financial resources, children remain the main care provider for the elderly.     

高科技发展与印度崛起

独立后,为了把印度建设成为一个现代化工业强国和＂有声有色＂的世界大国,历届印度政府都非常重视高科技发展。经过六十多年的努力,印度在原子科技、空间科技、信息科技、生物科技和海洋科技等高新科技领域取得了举世瞩目的成就。高科技的发展促进了印度经济增长,提高了印度国防现代化水平,增强了印度的综合国力和国际影响力,提高了印度的国际地位。     

政治市场想象与中国国家治理分析——兼评周黎安的行政发包制理论

近年来,经济学越来越多地介入有关中国国家治理问题的研究。经济学对这一问题的关注始终围绕关于国家的“政治市场想象”展开。该想象有三个核心关切,即国家的市场性、多主体性和政治性。周黎安的“行政发包制”理论在这三个维度的每一个方面都有重要发展,将经济学的中国国家治理研究推进到一个新的高度。但“政治市场想象”重视国家的市场性而轻忽其政治性的倾向,也使周黎安模型对权力问题的分析较为薄弱,以致造成核心概念的界定不够清晰等问题。尽管如此,“政治市场想象”仍为中国国家治理研究提供了一个颇有启发性和整合性的思想框架。     

“官场+市场”与中国增长故事

本文运用和拓展了“官场+市场”理论,重新解析中国独具特色的经济增长机制以及政府与市场的互动模式。地方官员之间围绕着辖区经济发展的官场竞争嵌入在不同辖区企业之间的市场竞争之中,而辖区企业参与的市场竞争又嵌入在官场竞争之中。作为一种分析框架,“官场+市场”的理论贡献在于揭示了政府与市场的良性互动、政企的有效合作必备的三个条件,即内部的政治激励（“把事做对”）、外部的市场约束（“防止做坏事”）和必要的信息反馈（“做对的事”）。中国“官场+市场”的增长模式在总体上提供了这三个关键条件,在最积极的意义上实现了辖区内政治企业家与民间企业家精神的结合,政治精英与经济精英的结合,中国历史悠久的官僚政治传统与西方国家市场经济传统的结合,为我们揭示中国增长之谜开辟了新的视角。     

日本核泄漏对海洋生态安全的影响分析

日前,日本核泄露事故一直是公众和媒体关注的焦点,其向海洋倾倒万余吨的高放射性污水,对海洋生态安全构成了巨大威胁,也损害了其他国家在太平洋海域的利益。本文认为,为了维护全人类的正当权益,国际原子能机构应发挥其积极的干预作用,完善海洋生态安全区域法律体系和管理制度,引导各个国家通过合作谈判的方式,共同应对此次核泄漏事故,确保核安全,以实现海洋的可持续发展。     

The Deinstitutionalization of Children in Bulgaria – The Role of the EU

In this article, the role of the EU as a key factor for the development of the deinstitutionalization of children is explored. A series of hypotheses concerning EU funding, policies and politics are addressed with regards to how the EU as a whole has affected the deinstitutionalization of children. The article explains the presence of association between instigation of public interest and civil mobilization and the launch of a nationwide reform – in particular how advocacy both at national and EU level led to the adoption of a national reform strategy in Bulgaria. Further, the association between the availability of an innovative approach to spending the EU funds and the decision generally to reform the system for institutional care for children is presented. The article explains the difference that €107.6 million will make for Bulgaria's abandoned children if the European structural funds are realized with their full potential. On the other hand, it reveals the challenges that the process is facing. A great deal of non‐governmental organization (NGO) experience concerning EU involvement in the process has been generalized and construed in order to achieve the best possible understanding of the whole process, the key players and the fundamental issues.     

Legal Problems of Reactor Safety

Nuclear energy has already reached a stage at which it is not only competitive with but superior to other forms of energy in terms of all such factors as economy, reliability, safety, and environmental effects. During the next 25-30 years of nuclear power, there will be no alternative energy source capable of competing with it. The nearly 25 years of experience of operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) has persuasively demonstrated their economic and ecological superiority over coalfueled thermal power plants (TPPs). In a number of countries nuclear energy already accounts for a significant share of electric power output. In Switzerland, for example, it accounts for about 20 percent; in England, 15 percent; in West Germany, 12 percent; in the USA, about 10 percent; and in the Common Market countries as a whole, about 10 percent. Approximately the same figures apply to the German Democratic Republic, Bulgaria, Japan, India, and other countries.     

Low Fertility and the Australian Dream: The Family Background of Australian Children

Despite the attention focused on changes in the family in Australia, the majority of children come from conventional family backgrounds. Most parents still pursue the ‘Australian dream’ of nuclear family life and home ownership. Yet while traditional goals remain Influential among parents, economic and other constraints mean that only a minority of children actually spend their first fifteen years in circumstances approaching a realisation of the ‘Australian dream’.     

From ‘Rights to Action’: practitioners' perceptions of the needs of children experiencing domestic violence

Not only has research over the past decade documented the emotional and behavioural consequences for children who witness domestic violence, but a number of studies have used children as participants thus, giving them an opportunity to describe their experiences in their own words. In policy terms, there has been a growing emphasis on children's rights and the importance and understanding of children's perspectives on their own lives. Consequently, children can no longer be perceived as forgotten victims where domestic violence is concerned. This paper explores practitioners' awareness of the needs of children and young people living with, and fleeing from, domestic violence. The research, conducted in a rural area in Wales, reveals that although the views of practitioners reflect the concerns reported by young people in other studies, there can be barriers to meeting these needs. While policy prescribes engaging with children, at the institutional level, operational priorities and increasing administrative demands can actually reduce opportunities for working directly with children. These demands may hamper the development of multi‐agency practice.