The conflicting effects of delayed marriage and declining divorce rates on cumulative fertility in Indonesia

The impact of nuptiality patterns on fertility in Indonesia is examined with multivariate analysis controlling for 8 socioeconomic variables. Data were obtained from the 1987 Indonesian Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. Marriage is usually universal by age 35, and in this study all women 30 years had been married at least once. 20% were married at 15 years and 45% married at 18 years. For those married more than once, prevalence of 1st marriage was 7% for women 15-24 years, 15% for 25-34 years, and 29% for 35-49 years. In 1976 and 1987, the age at 1st marriage and number of times married were both strongly and negatively correlated. The % never marrying between 15-49 years rose from 21.5% to 26.4% between 1980-87. Cumulative fertility w as related to both age at 1st marriage and number of times married. Muslim women, women in Java and Bali, and rural women all marry at younger ages. 27% of the variance in age at 1st marriage is explained by women aged 25-34, current residence, region, religion, language, education, and work or not before marriage. The number of times married is also associated with socioeconomic characteristics without control, i.e., Muslim women 25-34 years were 3 times more likely to have been married more than once than in other faiths. With controls for socioeconomic factors, only 13% of the variance is explained and being Muslim has no statistically significant effect. The important net effects were being interviewed in Balinese, age, and age at 1st marriage. In the analysis of cumulative fertility, age at 1st marriage consistently is related to cumulative fertility in almost every socioeconomic group when age and number of times married is controlled for. Women married more than once have lower fertility. 36% of the variance is explained by all the variables. Being married more than once leads to having 2.1 fewer children. A 5-year delay in marriage leads to .75-1.1 fewer children. When other variables are controlled for, neither educational level nor prior work experience has a statistically significant effect on cumulative fertility. In the contraception analysis, women married more than once used contraception less. Among women 35-49, those marrying later had higher contraceptive use, but in general contraceptive use declined with age. More information is needed on why marriage patterns are changing.     

Survey sheds new light on marriage and sexuality in the Philippines

The Young Adults Fertility and Sexuality Study (YAFS-II) was conducted in 1994 by interviewing 10,879 men and women aged 15-24 years in households on dating, marriage, and onset of sexual activity in the Philippines. In addition, screening data were collected on all households visited and on the 959 sampled local communities. Direct questions on premarital sex revealed that at least 52% of married women had sex before marriage. Among married respondents, 57% of men and 51% of women reported having had sex with their spouse before they were married. Only 3% of the women had additional premarital partners vs. 37% of the men. Questions on premarital sex and social patterns showed that about 20% of the single women and 28% of the single men had been in a serious relationship by the time they were 17. By age 20, 44% of the single women and 63% of the single men had been in a serious relationship, while the respective figures by age 24 were 60% and 68%. Altogether 24% of the women and 10% of the men described themselves as married. 34% of all women who either eloped or lived with their spouses had been married in church by the time of the survey, 23% had had civil ceremonies, and 41% designated their marital status as cohabitation. With regard to the risk of HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases, 25% of the 24-year old men who never had a girlfriend reported sexual experience and 22% of those still single at age 24 reported that they had visited a commercial sex worker. Marital status was not the best basis for providing family planning services, and the provision of reproductive health services to young people living in consensual union would reduce accidental pregnancy.     

New survey finds fertility decline in India

A brief indication was provided of demography, fertility, and contraceptive usage and knowledge based on the recent 1992/93 Indian National Family Health Survey. The sample included 88,562 households and 89,777 ever married women aged 13-49 years in 24 states and the National Capital Territory of Delhi. About 38% of household members were aged under 15 years. The sex ratio was 944 females to 100 males. 54% aged over 5 years were currently married; 10% were widowed, divorced, or separated. 43% were literate and 9% had secondary or higher education: 67% for females in cities and 34% in rural areas. Female literacy was 82% in Kerala but under 30% in Rajasthan, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. During 1990-92, the crude birth rate was 28.9 per 1000 population. Total fertility was 3.4 for women aged 15-49 years: 3.7 in rural and 2.7 in urban areas. 31% of parents had been sterilized. 26% desired no more children. Only 6% of women with four or more children desired another child. 99% of urban and 95% of rural respondents had knowledge of at least one modern or traditional method. Female and male sterilization were the most well-known modern methods. 47% of women had ever used contraception: 42% with a modern method and 12% with a traditional method. 41% were current users of family planning: 36% with a modern and 4% with a traditional method (45% in urban and 33% in rural areas with a modern method). The highest contraceptive use was in Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Punjab states and Delhi (over 50%). The two most populous states, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, had the lowest rates, which were under 25%; other low usage was in Assam and several small northeastern states. 75% of all female modern contraceptive use was female sterilization. 12% in urban and 3% in rural areas used a modern spacing method. Use increased with increased educational level. Rural sources of supply emphasized public facilities: sterilization and IUDs.     

National Estimates of Cohabitation

Data from the 1987-1988 National Survey of Families and Households are used to provide national estimates of cohabitation trends and levels. The rapid increase since around 1970 is documented over both birth cohorts and marriage cohorts. Almost half of the persons in their early 30s and half of the recently married have cohabited. Changes in the proportion ever married are compared with changes in the proportion who have either married or cohabited. Much of the decline in marriage has been offset by increased living together without being married. The stability of unions of various types is compared. Cohabitations end very quickly in either marriage or disruption. About 60 percent of all first cohabitations result in marriage. Cohabiting unions and marriages preceded by cohabitation are much more likely to break up than are unions initiated by marriage. Multivariate analysis reveals higher rates of cohabitation among women, whites, persons who did not complete high school, and those from families who received welfare or who lived in a single-parent family while growing up.     

An analysis of the change of marriage pattern of Beijing women]

Changes in marriage patterns occur primarily in changes in the age at marriage. During a study of fertility among Beijing, China, women in 1981, another study was undertaken of the marriage situation of 8299 women who were born in 1914, 1920, 1930, 1940, and 1946. Data show that the rate of unmarried women was close to zero, which is one reason for the high birth rate in the past. A majority of the urban and rural women born in 1914, 1920, and 1930 married before the age of 15 years, indicating that the economic, social, and marriage customs for those decades changed very little. The 1940 cohort, however, showed no urban marriages prior to the age of 15 years and less than 1% in the villages, the reason being that these women were of marriageable age in the mid-to-late 1950s when China underwent major social and economic changes that raised the status of women and permitted them to join the work force or go to school. Very few urban women in the 1946 cohort married before 20 years of age, and the number of rural women who married before they were 18 years old declined noticeably. Findings also show that for both urban and rural women, the average age at marriage was 1-3 years later than the modal age at marriage. Beginning with the 1940 cohort the age at marriage was older by 2 1/2 years, signaling major changes. Except for the 1914 cohort, the median age at marriage for all others gradually became higher. 70% of the 1946 cohort voluntarily married after turning 23 years old, reflecting the effectiveness of the late marriage, late birth policy. Although close to 59% of rural women born in 1946 married before 23 years of age, nearly double the rate for urban women, it is nevertheless a major change from the 1930 cohort where 95% of the women married before turning 23 years old.     

The family planning work as suggested by analysis of the age at first marriage in Jiaxing Prefecture, Zhejiang Province]

Since 1970 when the big push for family planning began, China advocated late marriages. In general, the age for late marriage for female peasants is 23 years and 25 for males; for urban females and males, it is 25 and 27 years, respectively. In 1981 the New Marriage Law stipulated the age at marriage to be 20 years for females and 22 for males (these ages are lower than the ages advocated for marriage in actual practice). Despite the New Marriage Law, however, there was in 1981 an increase in the number of people who married before attaining the "late marriage age," thereby creating problems in family planning work. Since 1981, early marriages have been an increasing phenomenon (for the purposes of this essay, age at early marriage is 23 years for females and 25 for males). Jiaxing Prefecture had a 460.53% increase from 1979 to 1981 in the number of women who married early. The following findings were based on studies of Tungxiang and Pinghu Countries. Early marriages as well as "regular" marriages have increased greatly, with early marriage exceeding the number of other marriages. Urban marriages are far more moderate in number than rural marriages, partly because family planning work in urban areas is more effective. Early marriage in areas where family planning work was effective is less extreme than in areas where family planning work was ineffective. Findings from Kayuan Commune of Tungxiang County shows that 47.8% of all male marriages in 1981 were early marriages, as opposed to 6.3% in 1980. The average age for men at marriage in 1981 was 1.6 years younger than in 1980, and .75 years younger for females. Undoubtedly the New Marriage Law influenced the trend in early marriages, but the main reason is that the agarian economy is backwards. Further, traditional attitudes (e.g., "the sooner the children come the sooner the riches come") prevail.     

中国女性初婚模式变动趋势研究

20世纪80年代以来我国女性的初婚模式发生了显著的变化。本文使用人口普查资料、全国1%人口抽样调查数据、人口变动情况抽样调查数据以及IPUMS数据,通过女性平均初婚年龄、曾婚比例、年龄别初婚概率、终身结婚期待率和预期单身寿命等指标探究我国女性自20世纪80年代以来的初婚模式变动情况。研究发现30多年来我国女性平均初婚年龄在波动中上升,到2017年女性平均初婚年龄已经达到25.60岁,而教育程度的提高会推迟女性进入婚姻的时间,接受过高等教育的女性平均初婚年龄明显高于未受过高等教育的女性;另外,通过对各教育程度平均初婚年龄标准化与分解看到随着时间的推移,教育对女性的平均初婚年龄影响作用增大;20-30岁年龄段女性婚姻推迟明显,曾婚比例不断降低,但女性终身未婚比例很低,其中受过高等教育的女性婚姻推迟现象最为明显,但其自身的结婚意愿并未降低,大部分女性只是推迟结婚时间,并不是不结婚。对净婚姻表各指标进行计算发现1982-2010年女性的年龄别初婚概率下降,尤其在20-30岁年龄段下降明显,初婚峰值年龄推迟,结婚年龄集中现象减弱。终身结婚期待率下降速度趋缓,随着女性初婚年龄的推迟,2010年27岁之后的终身结婚期待率要高于1990年与2000年,29-35岁女性的预期单身寿命也较前30年低,较大年龄未婚女性结婚等待时间缩短。     

Some problems observed in the 1 percent sample survey of fertility in Shanghai]

From July to December of 1982, a sample survey of fertility was conducted of childbearing females between the ages of 15 and 49 in Shanghai. The results of this survey can be summarized by the following points: (1) The percentage of females of childbearing age is very high, and the situation in the suburbs is even more serious than that inside the city. This is the major reason for a large scale population increase in Shanghi. (2) The marriage rate is high, the divorce rate is low, and the people who remain single in their lifetime are few. This stable family and marriage situation provides a favorable condition for population growth. (3) The average marrying age for childbearing females has gradually risen in recent years, but this trend is now reversed. More and more people are getting married when they are young. (4) Fertility for childbearing aged females decreases according to the increase in their age. In the last two years, however, this downward trend has been reversed, and fertility is gradually increasing again. The above points show that family planning and birth control have entered the most crucial period in Shanghai. Efforts and enforcement should be strengthened in the area of family planning, and no relaxation should be allowed so that the goal of controlling rapid population growth may be achieved.     

American families: trends and correlates

Discussion focused on the nature of the roles of the family, a review of the major demographic changes (marriage, cohabitation, nonfamily households, remarriage, fertility, teenage pregnancy, and female employment) affecting the American family in the past decades, and the nature of the impact on women, men, and children. There were four major trends identified: 1) increased proportions of children living in single-parent families due to high rates of divorce and increased childbearing outside of marriage; 2) increased proportions of adults in nontraditional living arrangements; 3) increased female labor force participation during all stages of the life cycle; and 4) decreased proportions of children and increased proportions of older people out of total population due to declining mortality and fertility rates. Family formation arises out of childbearing and childrearing roles, the need for companionship and emotional support, and the opportunities for specialization and trade, and the economies of scale. The costs of family living may include the potential for disagreement, conflict, loss of privacy, and time and money. There were a number of reasons identified for not maintaining traditional families consisting of a married couple with children. The trends were for later age at marriage: 24.4 years in 1992 for women, increased cohabitation (almost 50% cohabiting prior to first marriage in 1985-86), decreased number of married couple households, and increased number of adults in non-family households. The divorce rate has risen over the past 100 years with peaks in the 1970s; the reasons were identified as increased baby boomers and new marriages, increased labor participation of women, and changes in gender roles. The stabilization and slight decline in rates may be due to a natural leveling, the likelihood of greater stability within new marriages, and the aging of the baby boomers. An anticipated increase in divorce rates in the future was also justified. Remarriage rates varied by gender, age at separation/divorce, presence of children, race/ethnicity, and education. Fertility remained stable at 1.8 during the late 1970s and early 1980s and increased slightly to 2.0 in 1989. IN 1990, there were 25% out-of-wedlock births compared to 5% in 1960. About 12% of births in 1989 were to teenagers. There has been an increase in female-headed households, the median income of which in 1992 was $13,012, or 33% of married couple income.     

Communique of the State Family Planning Commission on a nationwide fertility sampling survey of every person per thousand

In 1982, the Chinese State Family Planning Commission conducted a nationwide fertility survey of 1 person/1000 in 28 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions. 815 sample units were selected and 310,462 women aged 15-67 were interviewed, 99.9% of those identified. 252,094 (24.77%) were of childbearing age (15-49) with 24.76% 15-19 years old. Among women of fertile age, 31.46% were unmarried, 64.53% were married to their 1st husbands, 2.89% were remarried, .19% were divorced, and .94% were widowed. Average age of 1st marriage increased from 18.4 in the 1940s to 22.8 in 1981. Total fertility rate dropped from 5.44 in the 1940s to 2.63 in 1981. In 1981, the birth rate was 85/1000 women of fertile age. Fertility was much higher among minority nationalities. 118 million of China's 170 million married couples of reproductive age (69.46%) use birth control at present; 50.2% use the IUD, 25.4% tubal ligation, 10.0% vasectomy, 8.2% oral contraceptives, and 2.0% condoms. About 21 million married women should have begun using contraception but have not. 14 million or 42.3% of 33 million 1 child couples have pledged to have only 1 child. If the fertility level of 1981 is maintained and the average woman continues to have 2.63 children, 2.91 in rural areas, China's population will reach 1.2 billion by 1993 and will exceed 1.3 billion by 2000. The Central Committee has a target population of 1.2 billion by 2000.     

The changing American family

This Bulletin documents recent changes in American family patterns resulting both from longterm trends in urbanization, industrialization, and economic growth and the disruption of the Great Depression and World War 2, as well as changed attitudes toward marriage, parenthood, divorce, and the roles of women. Following a postwar boom in the 1950s and 1960s, marriage rates have now fallen to levels observed in the early 20th century. Since 1970, the number of unmarried couples living together has more than tripled to 1.9 million in 1983. The divorce rate has now stabilized after more than doubling since 1960, but at the current level, 1/2 of all recent marriages will end in divorce. Most divorced persons remarry fairly quickly, often creating complex families of "step-relatives." With 19% of households with minor children now headed by a women with no husband present, up to 1/2 of all children will live for sometime in a fatherless family before age 18. Over 1/2 of all married women, including 49% of married mothers of preschool children, now hold a paid job outside the home. Working wives boost a family's income by an average 40% but still are expected to shoulder most responsiblility for home and childcare. White women now in their 20s say they expect to have an average of 2 children, but are delaying childbearing to such an extent that 29% could end up childless. Most of the elderly live on their own but usually near children whom they see frequently. Despite changes in traditional family patterns, Americans consistently report that a happy marriage and good family are the most important aspects of life. And though most Americans now live with few or no family members, they maintain active contact with a large network of family.     

Child Marriage and Intimate Partner Violence in Rural Bangladesh: A Longitudinal Multilevel Analysis

Child marriage (before age 18) is a risk factor for intimate partner violence (IPV) against women. Worldwide, Bangladesh has the highest prevalence of IPV and very early child marriage (before age 15). How the community prevalence of very early child marriage influences a woman’s risk of IPV is unknown. Using panel data (2013–2014) from 3,355 women first married 4–12 years prior in 77 Bangladeshi villages, we tested the protective effect of a woman’s later first marriage (at age 18 or older), the adverse effect of a higher village prevalence of very early child marriage, and whether any protective effect of a woman’s later first marriage was diminished or reversed in villages where very early child marriage was more prevalent. Almost one-half (44.5 %) of women reported incident physical IPV, and 78.9 % had married before age 18. The village-level incidence of physical IPV ranged from 11.4 % to 75.0 %; the mean age at first marriage ranged from 14.8 to 18.0 years. The mean village-level prevalence of very early child marriage ranged from 3.9 % to 51.9 %. In main-effects models, marrying at 18 or later protected against physical IPV, and more prevalent very early child marriage before age 15 was a risk factor. The interaction of individual later marriage and the village prevalence of very early child marriage was positive; thus, the likely protective effect of marrying later was negated in villages where very early child marriage was prevalent. Collectively reducing very early child marriage may be needed to protect women from IPV.     

Indonesian survey looks at adolescent reproductive health

The Baseline Survey of Young Adult Reproductive Welfare in Indonesia, conducted from September to December 1998, provides information about young Indonesians on topics concerning work, education, marriage, family life, sexuality, fertility, and HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases. The survey interviewed 4106 men and 3978 women aged 15-24 years in three provinces of Java. Survey findings showed that 42% of the women and 8% of the men are currently or have been married. There was a strong inverse relationship between marriage and schooling, which suggests that greater educational attainment and a higher average age at marriage are likely to go together. Although most young couples prefer to delay and space births, only half of currently married young women are using any type of contraception. These results indicate that there is a need for better reproductive health care as well as improved reproductive health education. Moreover, the current economic crisis has lead to a decline in the use of the private sector for health care. Instead, young people are using the less-expensive government services, and young women are turning to pharmacies and midwives rather than to private doctors to obtain contraceptives. These findings have several policy implications including the need for reproductive health programs that provide services needed by young people.     

A tentative discussion on population reproduction in U.S.A. after World War II]

Immigration is an important factor in America's population growth. In the last 200 years over 50 million persons immigrated to the U.S.; 99.6% of the current total population are descendents of those immigrants. In the 1930s, American population decreased by about 7.2/1000, but during the 1950s the annual rate of natural increase rose to 18.5/1000. In the 1960s, this rate began to decrease until the 1970s when it was about 9/1000. By 1981 and 1982, the rate of natural increase declined to 7/1000. These changes are due to the relatively slow decline in the mortality rate of the last 30 years (10.6/1000 in 1945 to 9/1000 in 1981) and to the fluctuations in birth rates (from 19.5/1000 in 1945 to a high of 25.3/1000 in 1957 and back to 16/1000 in 1981). Birth rates are influenced by factors such as the number of fertile women, age structure, fecundity, marriage, family, occupation, and education. In 1950 there were 38,920,000 women aged 15-49, and by 1980 there were 57,630,000. Of these, in 1950, 31.28% were aged 20-29, the most fertile period for women, as compared with 35.04% in 1980. Thus, in postwar America, the changes in birth rate did not follow changes in the number of fertile women. Marriage patterns also underwent changes, particularly in the last 20 years. From 1930 to 1935, the marriage rate was 8.6/1000. By 1945, it rose to 16.4/1000. But during the 1960s, an increasing number of women aged 20-29 years remained unmarried. At the end of the 1970s, there was also an increase in the number of married women who did not have children. Furthermore, the number of divorces increased, an additional reason for a declining birth rate. Changes in family structure also influenced postwar American reproduction. In the last two decades, the traditional family has almost disappeared and the nuclear fammily is on the decline. By 1970 there were more people living alone, single parent families, and unrelated people sharing a domicile, than there were family units. Also, educated women who worked often married at a later age, thus placing restrictions on the birth rate.     

The Retrenchment of Marriage: Results from Marital Status Life Tables for the United States, 1995

Marital status life tables were calculated using 1995 US rates of marriage, divorce, and mortality. Compared to figures for 1988, the proportion of persons surviving to age 15 who ever marry remained fairly steady at about five‐sixths of all men and seven‐eighths of all women. The average age at first marriage rose substantially: to 28.6 years for men and 26.6 years for women. The probability of a marriage ending in divorce changed little and was .437 for men and .425 for women. It is likely that no US period or cohort will ever have half of all marriages end in legal divorce, though the highest cohort may reach 47 percent. Patterns of marriage and divorce observed since 1970 show the effect that cohabitation continues to have on the American family, where it is delaying, but not replacing, marriage.     

How female education affects reproductive behavior in urban Pakistan

Although Pakistan remains in a pretransitional stage (contraceptive prevalence of only 11.9% among married women in 1992), urban women with post-primary levels of education are spearheading the gradual move toward fertility transition. Data collected in the city of Karachi in 1987 were used to determine whether the inverse association between fertility and female education is attributable to child supply variables, demand factors, or fertility regulation costs. Karachi, with its high concentration of women with secondary educations employed in professional occupations, has a contraceptive prevalence rate of 31%. Among women married for less than 20 years, a 10-year increment in education predicts that a woman will average two-fifths of a child less than other women in the previous 5 years. Regression analysis identified 4 significant intervening variables in the education-fertility relationship: marriage duration, net family income, formal sector employment, and age at first marriage. Education appears to affect fertility because it promotes a later age at marriage and thus reduces life-time exposure to the risk of childbearing, induces women to marry men with higher incomes (a phenomenon that either reduces the cost of fertility regulation or the demand for children), leads women to become employed in the formal sector (leading to a reduction in the demand for children), and has other unspecified effects on women's values or opportunities that are captured by their birth cohort. When these intervening variables are held constant, women's attitude toward family planning loses its impact on fertility, as do women's domestic autonomy and their expectations of self-support in old age. These findings lend support to increased investments in female education in urban Pakistan as a means of limiting the childbearing of married women. Although it is not clear if investment in female education would have the same effect in rural Pakistan, such action is important from a human and economic development perspective.     

Changes in the Living Arrangements of Elderly People in Greece: 1974–1999

During the period 1974–1999 two contrasting trends were observed with respect to the living arrangements of older people in Greece. On the one hand the proportion of older people living with their unmarried children had been slightly rising while on the other hand the proportion of older people living with their married children declined substantially. As a result of the declining trend in the incidence of co-residence with married children the percentage of older people living with their children or other members of their extended family fell by 25% points (from a 58% in 1974 to about 33% in 1999). Our analysis suggests that the main driving force behind the decrease in co-residence between older people and their married children was the rise in the incomes of older people (which resulted from some important exogenous policy changes which increased substantially pension incomes). On the other hand, the main driving force behind the slight increase in the co-residence with unmarried children was the increase in the percentage of unmarried younger people (which is associated with the postponement in the age of marriage) and the high and in some cases increasing needs of children’s generation.     

Age at marriage is rising for Asian women and men,according to new data

The social transformations in Asia are described: delayed age at marriage and the proportions marrying. Policy implications are ascertained. The norm for female age at marriage has risen from 15 years to 17-18 years in south Asia, and from 18 years to 24 years and older in east Asia. Men's marriage age has also risen but not as much. Concurrent changes have occurred with fertility declines and small family sizes and lower population growth, with changing roles for women, and with emergent youth subcultures and increased prevalence of premarital sexual behavior. The number of singles is rising and expected to continue to rise. Examples are given of marriage age changes for Nepal and Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, South Korea, and regional totals. Southeast Asian countries experienced less dramatic changes, and changes primarily in the 20-24 year old group (from 30% to 74% of single women). Change for men has been less regular and with less magnitude. In Southeast Asia, the rise in marriage age for men has risen only 1-2 years compared with women. East Asia patterns vary by country, i.e., South Korean increases of 6 years, Taiwanese increases of 4 years, and 2 years in Japan. Single males have been common in South and Southeast Asia, while in East Asia married male teens 25 years are rare. Marriage timing for men is not as closely associated as for women with social and cultural change. Downturns for men follow momentous, temporary disruptions such as happen during wars and periods of migration, while women's patterns are more reflective of structural change. The trend for never marrying is on the increase, particularly for men in Japan (1.1% in the 1920s to 18% in the early 1980s for men 50 years). Women not ever marrying are increasing in Thailand, Bangladesh, and Hong Kong. Never marrying is common in urban or educated populations, i.e., Singapore, Thailand, and Philippines. The implications are a longer gap between successive generations and a shorter period of exposure to risk of conception. Research findings have shown that a 1 year delay in age at 1st marriage reduces fertility by 20% of a child. Schooling delays marriage age as well as marriage laws, but structural and economic changes may be more important than policy changes. Policies affect the status of women and opportunities.     

Age at marriage and timing of the first birth

Summary An attempt has been made to measure the effect of age at marriage of brides on the timing of the first birth. In Australian vital statistics, first nuptial confinements have been tabulated by age of mothers and by single years of marriage duration in single months for the first two years and by single years for all other durations since 1916. A simple technique has been used to link such data with marriage cohorts. The study briefly reviews the prevailing patterns of the timing of first births by mothers' age at marriage and changes in this pattern since the marriages of the 1925/9 period. The analysis shows that after a period of relative stability of family formation patterns in the 1950s and early 1960s, women married in the late 1960s started postponing the first birth beyond the first two years of marriage. It is suggested that a fraction of the decline in total births recorded in Australia since 1972 can be attributed to the postponement of first nuptial confinements by women married in the late 1960s and early 1970s.     

The influence of women’s work opportunities on marriage rates

Several authors have argued that increased work opportunities for women have helped to produce a reduction in the average age at marriage in the United States. This paper tests this proposition on data for the 100 largest SMSA's in 1960. Using ordinary least-squares regression, we find that areas of relatively attractive female employment opportunities had relatively low proportions of women ever married in the age interval 22-24. Other variables significantly related to the proportion married in an SMSA are its sex ratio, percent Catholic, and number of inhabitants. A decline in the sex ratio and improvements in female employment opportunities appear to have been equally influential in producing declines in proportions married between 1960 and 1970.