What's happening to U.S. family size?

A telephone survey by Zero Population Growth demographers found that birthrates have risen slightly for the 1st quarter of 1977. Average estimated family size is now 1.85 children per women compared with 1.77 for the 1st quarter of 1976. For all of 1976 the total fertility rate was 1.76 children per woman. It is predicted, on the basis of the informal survey, that the total fertility rate will rise to 2.0 or 2.1 children by the early or mid-1980s. In 1976, married women expected an average of 2.4 children each. Wives 18-24 expected 2.1 children each while older women (35-39) expected 3.0. Many women are delaying births. Wives 18-24 have an average of .8 children each, wives 25-29 have 1.6 children each. Campbell Gibson, former chief of the projections branch of the Census Bureau, believes births will not reach levels of expectations becuase of the financial, employment, and social problems the huge Baby Boom age group faces throughout its lifetime. The undecided women in the surveys reduce the predictive value. 18% of single women aged 14-39 and 8% of married women in the same age group said they were uncertain about how many children they would have. Since the personalitites and motivations of this undecided group are similar to those who expect to remain childless, it is possible that this group will have fewer children. Such nondemographic factors as media publicity about low fertility rates may inspire some couples to have children. Conversely, the postponement of births may enable couples to become comfortable with a certain lifestyle and these couples may not have as many children as they expect. Social norms are already changing. The percent of wives expecting to be childless rose from 1.3 to 4.1% between 1967-1975. Those expecting only 1 child rose from 6.1 to 11.2%.     

Is the male marriage premium due to selection? The effect of shotgun weddings on the return to marriage

In standard cross-sectional wage regressions, married men appear to earn 10 to 20% more than comparable never married men. One proposed explanation for this male marriage premium is that men may be selected into marriage on the basis of characteristics valued by employers as well as by spouses or because they earn high wages. This paper examines the selection hypothesis by focusing on shotgun weddings, which may make marital status uncorrelated with earnings ability. We compare the estimated marriage premium between white men whose first marriages are soon followed by a birth and other married white men in the United States. The return to marriage differs little for married men with a premarital conception and other married men, and the results suggest that at most 10% of the estimated marriage premium is due to selection. Received: 19 June 1998/Accepted: 10 July 2000     

Have african american men become less committed to marriage? Explaining the twentieth century racial cross-over in men’s marriage timing

Prior to World War II, the median age at marriage for white men was later than that for African American men. Since World War II, African American men have, on average, married later than white men. A discrete-time hazard model using data from the National Survey of Families and Households was analyzed to explain this racial cross-over in men’s timing of marriage. Dramatic increases in the educational attainment of African American parents and the large movement of African Americans out of the South brought about the racial cross-over in the timing of marriage. Increased enrollment in higher education among African American men also contributed to the racial cross-over in the timing of marriage. Although lack of full-time employment and military service delayed marriage, these factors did not contribute to the racial cross-over.     

Escape route to dependency? Female migration from Sri Lanka to the Middle East

This article looks at labor migration with the sex component turned upside down, where the woman leaves hearth and home in search of work in distant lands. The sending country is Sri Lanka, and the women migrate as maids to Arab households in the Gulf area. Labor migration must be understood in the context of the economic and social development that has made migration possible, or rather pushed it forward. Today, the export of labor is the 2nd biggest source of foreign earnings for Sri Lanka, and females constitute the largest single group of labor migrants. There is 1 clear aspect of female migration: it is almost without exception the poorest strata of society that send their women to the Gulf as housemaids. 3 factors tend to reduce the value of wages earned in the Middle East: 1) for a majority of the migrants there are high social costs involved, 2) there are high transaction costs just to obtain a Gulf job, and 3) performing paid housework tends to be regarded as a low-status occupation and is less attractive to households that have alternative means of income. Not only are the migrant women themselves exposed to a very different society, with different values and ways of living, but also the whole community at home gets a concept of "abroad." The Sri Lankan government expects the contingent of female migrants to grow, though against this is the fact that Sri Lanka now faces stronger competition in female labor exports from other Asian countries.     

Shall we marry? Legal marriage as a commitment event in same-sex relationships

This study is a part of an exploratory study of 50 married and unmarried same-sex couples in Massachusetts conducted by the Wellesley Centers for Women following legalization of same-sex marriage in Massachusetts in 2004. This article examines whether and how legalization of same-sex marriage impacted same-sex partners' commitment to one another, presentation to others as a couple, and treatment as a couple by others. Roughly one-quarter of the couples studied chose not to mark their commitment with ceremonies of any kind, while nearly three-fourths of the couples had either commitment (non-legal) ceremonies, legal weddings, or both. While decisions to legally marry largely were based on gaining legal protections, unforeseen impacts on self and relationships with family, friends, and the larger society revealed multiple layers of meaning. Implications of the study for public policy and social change are discussed.     

Apocalypse when? Population growth and food supply in South Asia

Food demands for staple grains are expected to almost double over the next 25 years in South Asia, due to population growth and increased standards of living. Trends in the mid-1990s suggest that neither pessimism nor optimism prevails in the region. There is wide diversity among and within countries. Trends suggest that population densities are already the highest in the world, and the amount of arable land is declining. Urban growth has moved onto farm land and farmers have been pushed onto more marginal lands or have become landless. Land intensification has produced mixed results. Cereal production per capita has increased since the 1950s in India, with about 75% of the region's population, but Pakistan's increases were not sustained into the 1980s. Average daily caloric intake per person in the region of 2214 is below the level in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Bangladesh, levels are particularly worrisome at 2037. The environmental impact has not been easily quantified, but experts have suggested that pressure on farm land has contributed to loss of soil fertility and water resource loss. Further intensification of farming is feasible, but difficult and more expensive than in the past. Regardless of production problems and solutions, there is also the very real problem of poor food distribution and lack of purchasing power. Farm management skills must be utilized, if environmental degradation is to be avoided. There is the added unknown of what climate changes will occur and how agricultural production will be affected. The policy implications are that increased food production must be made a political priority. Policies must support agricultural research into improved technologies and support distribution of technological advances to a wider number of farmers. Rural infrastructures such as roads, market outlets, and credit agencies must be established. Policies must be removed that disadvantage farmers, such as inappropriate subsidies for irrigation water, inadequate tenure agreements, and price setting. Slowing population growth provides time to adjust to expanding production and saving the environment.     

Happy alone? Sad young men in East Asian gay cinema

This essay chooses as its texts three films representing contemporary gay male subjects from each of the "three" China's: HK, Taiwan, and the Mainland. Relocating the homoerotic image of the "sad young man," a trope popular from Hollywood rebellion films of the 1950s and 1960s, to contemporary China, I discuss how this masculine icon has been transformed from one of heroic rebellion to one of existential isolation. Indeed, as the politics of both the outmoded Confucian family and fractured Chinese nationhood intersect, what the sad young (gay) man rebels against is a political fluctuation which is no longer fixed; as the young man's opposition is no longer fixed, so too does he become alienated even from his own rebellious cause.     

The marriage boom and marriage bust in the United States: An age–period–cohort analysis

In the 1950s and 1960s there was an unprecedented marriage boom in the United States. This was followed in the 1970s by a marriage bust. Some argue that both phenomena are cohort effects, while others argue that they are period effects. The study reported here tested the major period and cohort theories of the marriage boom and bust, by estimating an age–period–cohort model of first marriage for the years 1925–79 using census microdata. The results of the analysis indicate that the marriage boom was mostly a period effect, although there were also cohort influences. More specifically, the hypothesis that the marriage boom was mostly a response to rising wages is shown to be consistent with the data. However, much of the marriage bust can be accounted for by unidentified cohort influences, at least until 1980.     

Why bother to ‘downshift’? The characteristics and satisfaction of downshifters in the Brisbane-South East Queensland region,Australia

Using the data collected as part of a Quality of Life (QoL) survey in the Brisbane-South East Queensland region (SEQ) of Australia, this paper examines differences in satisfaction levels between downshifters and non-downshifters, and identifies socio-economic predictors of the downshifting phenomenon. Almost 30% of survey respondents are classified as downshifters. Multivariate Analysis of Covariance reveals significant differences between downshifters and non-downshifters in a number of life-satisfaction domains, although the degree to which they were satisfied with their life before downshifting is unknown. Analysis of Covariance shows that downshifters reported a significantly lower level of satisfaction than non-downshifters, especially with respect to satisfaction with the amount of money available to them, independence or freedom, and employment. Multivariate logistic regression analysis reveals that post-secondary education and employment were positively associated with downshifting, while age was significantly associated with downshifting. It is argued that if downshifting is associated with lower levels of satisfaction, intervention may be required to initiate programs to engage downshifters more fully in the workforce by facilitating more flexible work arrangements and an improved working environment.     

Climate and marriage in the Netherlands, 1871–1937

Environmental factors such as climate variability can place significant constraints on demographic behavior in a range of settings. However, few studies investigate the relationships between demography and climate in historical contexts. Using longitudinal individual-level demographic data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN) and climate and economic data from 1871 to 1937, we examine the effects of climate variability on marriage. This analysis reveals that marriage increases with negative environmental conditions such as cold temperatures, riverine flooding, and high rye prices. These findings are not consistent with a Malthusian narrative of marriage behavior or with the expectation that environmental constraints were stronger in the historical past.     

Facilitators of and barriers to providing high-quality midwifery education in South-East Asia—An integrative review

BackgroundWith a diversity in midwifery education across the South-East Asia region, and with the knowledge about the lifesaving competency of the midwife profession, this study’s aim is to describe facilitators of and barriers to providing high-quality midwifery education in South-East Asia.MethodsInspired by Whittemore and Knafl, we conducted a systematic integrative literature review including the five key stages of problem identification, literature search, data evaluation, data analysis, and presentation of results. The literature searches were conducted in October 2020 in the databases CINAHL, PubMed, and Scopus. A deductive data analysis based on global standards was performed.ResultsThe search identified 1257 articles, 34 of which were included. Countries in South-East Asia did not fully comply with the ICM global standards. Midwifery education was not separated from that of nursing, and educators lacked formal qualifications in midwifery. Curriculum implementation in the clinical area was a key barrier to achieving learning outcomes. Higher academic education for midwifery educators and mentorship programs facilitated the pedagogic and assessment process, focusing on the abilities of critical thinking, reflection, and decision-making.ConclusionsCountries in South-East Asia still have a long way to go before they can provide high-quality midwifery education. The identified facilitators can lead to a difference in students’ academic achievement and confidence in their clinical work. Coordinated actions will enable the progress in achieving competent midwives matching national health priorities. The findings highlight a need for more research on midwifery education in both theory and practice across the region.     

How useful are the demographic surveys in explaining the determinants of early marriage of girls in the Terai of Nepal?

In recent decades significant changes in Nepalese society have greatly contributed to the increase in age at marriage of girls in Nepal. Factors responsible for these changes include educational development, urbanization and development of mass communications. However, many parents still marry their daughters at very young ages and this practice is particularly prevalent in the Terai region. This paper examines several demographic data sets with a view to assessing their utility for understanding the determinants of early age of marriage of girls in the Terai. The Nepal Family Health Survey (1996), Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys (2001, 2006), the Nepal Adolescents and Young Adults Survey (1999) and the 2001 Population Census of Nepal describe changes in at marriage over time. Factors such as sex, religion, education, geographic region, place of residence (rural/urban), economic status of the household and of women, and occupation are included in these data sets. However, other factors such as age at menarche, dowry and cost of marriage and cross-border marriage migration, which have been found to affect the prevalence of the lower age at marriage of girls in the Terai region, have not been included in the existing demographic surveys. Findings from the current study suggest that these variables should be included in future demographic surveys.     

Why do women continue to smoke in pregnancy?

Smoking during pregnancy not only impacts on the woman's health but that of her unborn child. Women most likely to continue smoking throughout pregnancy are generally of lower age, socio-economic status, level of education and occupational status. Women who continue to smoke during pregnancy often feel criticized by society. They feel guilt and personal conflict at not quitting. Lack of long-term positive outcomes from anti-smoking campaigns may result form ignorance surrounding socio-economically disadvantaged women's life circumstances. Current interventions often ignore the emotional and psychological stressors associated with pregnancy; they do not address the altered physiological processes that occur during pregnancy. A review of the literature pertaining to women who smoke throughout pregnancy is presented. Women want an individualised approach to smoking cessation advice, with health care workers having knowledge of the woman's social situation and viewpoints. This paper reveals that the woman's perspective has largely been ignored. Indeed health care professionals have attempted to manipulate women to stop smoking rather than engage in mutually respectful dialogue.     

Has East Germany Overtaken West Germany? Recent Trends in Order‐Specific Fertility

Some 20 years after reunification, the contrast between East and West Germany offers a natural experiment for studying the degree of persistence of Communist-era family patterns, the effects of economic change, and fertility postponement. After reunification, period fertility rates plummeted in the former East Germany to record low levels. Since the mid-1990s, however, period fertility rates have been rising in East Germany, in contrast to the nearly constant rates seen in the West. By 2008, the TFR of East Germany had overtaken that of the West. We explore why fertility in East Germany is higher than in West Germany, despite unfavorable economic circumstances in the East. We address this and related questions by (a) presenting an account of the persisting East/West differences in attitudes toward and constraints on childbearing, (b) conducting an order-specific fertility analysis of recent fertility trends, and (c) projecting completed fertility for the recent East and west German cohorts. In addition to using the Human Fertility Database, perinatal statistics allow us to calculate a tempo-corrected TFR for East and West Germany.     

Ethnic assortative matching in marriage and family outcomes: evidence from the mass migration to the US during 1900–1930

Positive assortative matching in terms of traits such as ethnicity and race has been prevalent in marital formation. One possible explanation for this is that spouses in endogamous marriages possess complementary skills and tastes that increase marital surplus. This paper aims to estimate the effects of ethnic assortative matching on a variety of household outcomes by using the exogenous variation in immigrant flows in the USA during the period 1900–1930 to disentangle the selection effect of partners. The major finding is that the complementarities in home production from same ethnic marriage enhances investment in household public goods such as childrearing and home ownership and reduces the market labor supply of wives. The OLS estimates of the sizes of these effects appear to be substantially biased downward, indicating positive selection into intermarriage in terms of unobservable traits that increase marital surplus.