TESTING COMMITMENT COST THEORY IN CHOICE EXPERIMENTS

In choice experiments, it is commonly assumed that individuals make choices in static and certainty decision‐making conditions. Real‐world choices, however, are usually made in a dynamic setting. Committing a purchase decision under conditions of uncertainty might have a “Commitment Cost” (CC). In this study, we test CC theory using a nonhypothetical choice experiment. Specifically, we test whether choice behavior and willingness to pay estimates differ when individuals have the option to gain present or delayed information or reverse the transaction. Our results suggest that the construction of a dynamic decision context can be relevant in the design of choice experiments. (JEL C90, C93, Q18)     

Explaining Attitudes toward Immigrants and Immigration Policy: A Review of the Theoretical Literature

In the research literature on immigration attitudes, there are a number of theories that explain why individuals hold positive or negative opinions of certain immigrant groups and immigration policies. In this review of the literature, the theories are summarized into five categories: personal and social identity, self and group interest, cultural values and beliefs, social interaction, and multilevel theories. The majority of the theories offer explanations that favor one causal direction, focus on social psychology or the social structural environment, and assume that effects are additive rather than interactive. It is argued in this review that scholars would benefit by using multilevel theories, such as group position theory and intersectionality, in order to extend their explanatory reach past the theoretical standards and, in doing so, be able to better examine some understudied but important questions, such as why individuals often hold pro‐ and anti‐immigrant opinions simultaneously. Multilevel theories have the potential to offer a nuanced understanding of immigration attitudes.     

Changes in the Initial Destinations and Redistribution of Canada's Major Immigrant Groups: Reexamining the Role of Group Affinity1

This study examines to what extent Canada's recent immigrants have altered their geographic concentration over time, with a view of determining the role of preexisting immigrant communities in immigrants’ locational choices, looking specifically at community size. The results show a large increase in concentration levels at the initial destination among major immigrant groups throughout the 1970s and 1980s, and a much smaller increase in the following decade. However, redistribution after immigration was generally small‐scale and had inconsistent effects on changing concentration at initial destinations among immigrant groups and across arrival cohorts within an immigrant group. Finally, this study finds that the size of the preexisting immigrant community is not a significant factor in immigrant locational choice when location fixed effects are accounted for.     

Rights and the liberal paradoxes

Traditional social choice theory does not distinguish between the choices and the preferences of an individual. However, it is often rational for an individual to make choices that do not follow his preferences, e.g. when he makes compromises with other individuals. A social choice format is introduced with separate representations for choice and preference. It is shown how different types of rights and other legal positions can be expressed in this format. Definitions are given of what it means for rights to be compatible and for a set of rights to be respected. Further, it is shown that much weaker (and fully plausible) conditions are needed to avoid Sen's paradox (the impossibility of a Paretian liberal) in this social choice format than in a traditional format that does not distinguish between choices and preferences. As an example of this, Sen's paradox can be avoided if each individual, ceteris paribus, prefers that her choices be respected in matters that belong to her own personal sphere.An earlier version of this paper has been discussed at a Swedish-English Symposium on Rights and Rationality. I would like to thank the participants, Peter Gärdenfors, William Hart, Stig Kanger, David Kelsey, Prasanta Pattanaik, and Robert Sugden for valuable comments.     

Risk Preferences and Immigration Attitudes: Evidence from Four East Asian Countries

Economic interests, such as increased job market competition or tax burden in the host countries, often explain attitudes toward immigration. Some empirical studies that have adopted this economic perspective report, however, that an individual's economic circumstances are not directly linked to his or her attitudes toward immigration, emphasizing that people can have different interpretations even under the same circumstances. We argue that risk preferences (i.e., willingness to take risks) shape personal perceptions about the costs and benefits of immigrant workers in the job market and immigration. Using the 2008 East Asian Social Survey from China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, we find that individuals who like to take more risks are more likely to be positive about immigration. Our study indicates the importance of psychological tendency in the formation of native citizens' attitudes toward immigration.     

Integration of Childhood Immigrants in the Short and Long Run – Swedish Evidence1

Immigrant children are often at a disadvantage at school while they adjust to their new environment. It has been found that the age at immigration of 7 or above represents a sensitive period as regards these children’s school performance for two main reasons: they have passed their prime age for language learning, and their acquisition of subject skills is less efficient while they learn to master the new language. Using Swedish administrative data, we track childhood immigrants born between 1972 and 1976 over time from adolescence (at 16) to adulthood (at 30), and study the role of age at immigration for educational and labor market outcomes. We find that immigration at a sensitive age (compared to a very young age) has a strong negative impact on compulsory school performance, but that the same individuals catch up strongly in terms of final educational attainment. In spite of this educational catching up, however, we find a considerable negative impact on earnings for men. We are able to rule out two potential mechanisms behind this puzzling result: It cannot be explained either by an impact on the chosen field of study or on completion time.     

Risk-defusing in decisions by probability of detection of harm and promotion and prevention focus

Risk-defusing operators (RDO) are actions that reduce risk, to be enacted either before a negative event occurs (pre-event RDOs) or afterwards (post-event RDOs). For post-event RDOs, detection probability of the negative events is relevant. Regulatory focus theory suggests that promotion-oriented individuals – independent whether it is a personal disposition or favored by situational cues – should focus on chances to succeed and therefore choose post-event RDOs more likely than prevention-oriented individuals who are likely to focus on possible failures and means to avoid them. In two experimental studies, we examined effects of detection probability and regulatory focus as a state variable on the choice of post-event RDOs. Results replicate findings that the likelihood to choose post-event RDOs increases with increasing detection probability of the negative events. Contrary to expectation, no clear effects of regulatory focus were found. Exploratory analyses showed some evidence that successful manipulation of regulatory focus might influence RDO choices if tasks are highly relevant for decision-makers.     

Conditionality of adaptiveness: Investigating the relationship between numeracy and adaptive behavior

Recent studies have illustrated that individuals with higher numeracy are more likely to make adaptive choices than individuals with lower numeracy. Highly numerate individuals can consistently make normatively superior choices by maximizing expected value (EV) in meaningful choice problems (high-payoff condition). However, in trivial problems (low-payoff condition), they can also adaptively change their strategy to make good enough choices and not follow a normatively superior strategy. Upon inspection of choice problems used in earlier studies, it was revealed that payoff was not the only varying factor between the two payoff conditions. Therefore, it is unclear whether payoff conditions alone can provide sufficient context for adaptive modulation in decision strategy. In two pre-registered studies (N = 343), we tested numerate individuals’ adaptiveness under high- and low-payoff conditions addressing the limitations of earlier studies. Results revealed that the presence of two payoff conditions together did not initiate adaptive strategy selection, regardless of participants’ numeracy. Instead, numerate individuals, compared to less numerate individuals, consistently made more EV-consistent choices in both payoff conditions. We identified that the change in EV consistency across payoff conditions was influenced more by the absolute difference than the relative difference in the expected reward.     

The reversal small-world experiment

This paper is an attempt to examine and define the world network of a typical individual by discovering how many of his or her acquaintances could be used as first steps in a small-world procedure, and for what reasons. The town and occupation of each target was provided, together with the ethnic background, where this could not be inferred from the name. Starters were instructed in the small-world experiment and asked to write down their choice, amongst the people they knew, for the first link in a potential chain from them to each of 1267 targets. Starters provided information on each choice made (e.g. mother, cousin, friend, acquaintance, etc.) together with the sex of the choice) and the reason that choice had been made. The reason could be in one or more of four categories: something about the location of the target caused the starter to think of his or her choice; the occupation of the target was responsible for the choice; the ethnicity of the target; or some other, unspecified, reason.Six main conclusions may be drawn from the data: (1) A mean of 210 choices per starter account for the “world” (i.e. the 1267 targets). This number is probably an underestimate. Only 35 choices are necessary to account for half the world, however. Of the 210, 95 (45%) were chosen most often for location reasons, 99 (47%) were chosen most often for occupation reasons, and only 7% of the choices were mainly based on ethnicity or other reasons. (2) Choices were mainly friends and acquaintances, with strong cleavage by sex. For any given target, the type of choice used by the majority of starters was a friend or acquaintance, and not family. For any given target, the most likely sex of the choice (i.e. over all starters) can be predicted accurately on 82% of occasions. This sex tends to be male, unless both starter and target are female, or if the target has a low-status occupation. Additionally, any given starter is most likely to pick a male choice for any target, except for the female starter-female target combination, when female choices are more likely. This was correct on 64% of occasions. (3) Location was the usual reason for choice (out of the four categories), with occupation second, and ethnicity or other reasons rarely used. This most popular reason for choice may be correctly predicted for any given target 81% of the time. (4) The decision as to which choice was made appears to depend primarily on the occupation of the target, and secondly on the distance (near/far) from Morgantown, West Virginia, where the experiment took place. (5) The expression “having one's man in …” can be partially quantified. We may define a choice to “handle” a state in the U.S. if he or she was chosen for two-thirds or more of the targets in that state for which choices were made on the basis of location. Then, for any starter, on average, half the states are each handled by a single choice. (6) The accuracy of starters' recall about their networks is low, in the sense that their recall is incorrect more often than it is correct (i.e. their recall could not be put to any other use with any reliability). This confirms previous experiments on informant accuracy.     

Marriage Enrichment through Choice Awareness*

Choice Awareness is presented as a system which has helped couples make more constructive cognitive, affective, and behavioral choices. This system defines choice as behavior over which we have some control. Thus, choice is seen as a constant. CREST choices, caring, ruling, enjoying, sorrowing, and thinking/ working, include most behaviors, and are useful in enabling individuals to explore past behaviors and plan future interactions. Choice Awareness Workshops present the system through a structured group process which is useful in enriching a variety of relationships, including marriage. Research with the workshop process suggests gains in real-ideal marriage relationship congruence, and provides support for Choice Awareness theory.     

Interests Aren’t Everything: An Exploration of Economic Explanations of Immigration Policy in a New Destination

Current debates around US immigration policy are playing out against a backdrop that has changed significantly in the past 20 years: immigrants have increasingly gravitated towards “new destinations”; a large and growing portion of immigrants are undocumented; and the federal vacuum in responding to the promise and problems of these new immigration trends has devolved policy to the states. As a result, we have seen innovation on the state level as policymakers seek to accommodate, welcome or resist immigration, with varying degrees of success. In this paper, we explore the case of Utah as a new immigration destination, seeking to understand its transformation from a state with very inclusive immigrant policies as late as 1999 to one currently adopting highly restrictive immigrant policies. To explain this trajectory, we test three prominent materialist theories of public policy: instrumentalism, structuralism and strategic-relational approaches. We draw on a decade’s worth of primary data – including data on state-level legislation, key economic indicators, public statements concerning immigration from the private business sector and the LDS Church, and the editorial content of the state’s two major newspapers regarding immigration – to examine the policy explanations that grow out of interest-based theories of the state. Whereas these theories provide robust explanations for a large and diverse array of public policies, we find that they fall short in explaining immigration policy. While conventional wisdom – and extensive scholarly research – suggests that economic interests drive policy, we find that the policies around immigrants challenge this economic reductionism, suggesting the need for more complex and ideational accounts of this important phenomenon.     

“The Politics of the HealthCare Reform Debate: Public Support of Including Undocumented Immigrants and Their Children in Reform Efforts in the U.S.”

Although U.S. immigration and health care policies appear to be highly correlated, scholarship has yet to gauge the public's views toward providing undocumented immigrants with health coverage at the state level. We analyze support for including undocumented immigrants in health care reform in New Mexico. Utilizing an original public opinion survey of New Mexico adults, we find that individuals are more supportive of the state providing health care to the children of undocumented immigrant than to their parents. Multivariate logistic regression analyses suggest that factors such as liberal ideology and perceptions of commonalities with Latinos increase support levels. Despite a lack of support among a majority of respondents, the influence of perceived commonalities with immigrants suggests that reform advocates and political elites who mobilize along ethnic or human solidarity may be successful in creating conditions for the inclusion of undocumented immigrants in the public provision of health care at the state level.     

Money illusion,financial literacy and numeracy: Experimental evidence

Money illusion is usually defined as the inability of individuals to correctly account for inflation or deflation when making decisions. Empirical evidence shows that money illusion matters in financial decisions, particularly those made by households. In this article, we analyze money illusion at the individual level within the context of financial choices and study its relationship with numeracy and financial literacy. To do so, we propose an original measure of money illusion via an experimental task. This task consists of a series of choices between a pair of simple bonds whose returns are affected only by inflation (or deflation). We provide a fine-grained measure of money illusion that is correlated with typical measures (questionnaires) of it. Moreover, we show that money illusion depends on the choice context (e.g., inflation or deflation) and participants’ abilities. Individuals with financial knowledge are less sensitive to money illusion than others, while there is no evidence of an impact of numeracy.     

Decisions with endogenous frames

We develop a model of decision-making with endogenous frames and contrast the normative implications of our model to those of choice theoretic models in which observed choices are determined by exogenous frames or ancillary conditions. We argue that, frames, though they may be taken as given by the decision-maker at the point when choices are made, matter for both welfare and policy purposes.     

“Infiltrators” or Refugees? An Analysis of Israel's Policy Towards African Asylum-Seekers

This article adopts a genealogical approach in examining Israeli immigration policy by focusing on the situation confronting African asylum seekers who have been forced back into Egypt, detained and deported but who have not had their asylum claims properly assessed. Based on immigration policies formulated at the time of Israeli independence, whose principle objective was to secure a Jewish majority state, we argue that Israel's treatment of African asylum seekers as ‘infiltrators’/economic migrants stems from an insistence on maintaining immigration as a sovereign issue formally isolated from other policy domains. Such an approach is not only in violation of Israel's commitment to the Refugee Convention, it directly contributes to policies which are ineffective and unduly harsh.     

Toward a reconceptualization of "choice": challenges by women at the margins

It has been suggested that recent first world and third world feminist movements have gained impetus from a shared emphasis on "body politics" (abortion, rape, and domestic violence). It has been made clear by other writers, however, that first and third world women (including women of color in the first world) have very different conceptions of which policies and practices should be pursued to change their reproduction experiences (because the overriding experiences of their entire lives are so very different). Likewise, the concept of "the right to choose" has been challenged on the grounds that it ignores the external conditions (such as economics) which, in fact, dictate "choice." Eugenics also influences which "choices" are promoted among populations considered "undesirable." The dilemmas associated with reproductive choices are further highlighted by debate about the use of amniocentesis in India for sex determination and female feticide. At the center of this debate is whether calling for a ban on this practice would support or violate a woman's choice. The rhetoric of choice arose in the first place because women who wanted to end a pregnancy had "no choice" but to seek illegal abortions. However, working class women and Black women in the US object to the narrowness in the abortion rights agenda dictated by the use of this term. To assert women's "choice" absolves all others of the responsibility for a pregnancy. The "choice" concept is also vulnerable to political manipulation. "Choice" also evades ethical problems such as sex selection. Disabled feminists have also pointed out that it is as important to create conditions which include "the choice to have a disabled child" as it is to choose not to be a mother. Can feminists oppose the selective abortion of female fetuses while leaving the choice to abort a defective or unwanted fetus of either sex up to the mother? Objection to sex determination can be categorized as consequentialist (based on various predicted social and psychological consequences, such as more men would lead to more violence in the world) or nonconsequentialist (based on the inherent immorality of selective abortion). The benefits of sex selection would possibly include a reduction in sex-linked diseases and a reduction in the overall birth rate. Most US feminists support the moral, but not the legal, condemnation of sex selection. In India, where sex selection is openly practiced, feminists have tried to achieve legal prohibition of the use of tests for this purpose. This difference from the US position may be due to the difference in the abortion context in the 2 countries. Whether feminists support legal and/or moral prohibition of sex selection, however, almost all call for the longterm structural changes which must be made in the context of imperialism, racism, and poverty which would allow true "choices" to prevail.     

Women and the Nobel Prize for peace

The Nobel Prize for Peace has been awarded for over 100 years. While the formal criteria for selection have not changed, there has been an evolution in the kind of choices made. To better understand those choices I have grouped individual winners into five distinct categories. The two largest groups are national leaders working within the international legal system and peace activists. The other three are: opponents capable of exercising force who agree to stop using it; individuals pursuing justice, freedom and/or rights nonviolently as a prelude to peace; and those offering selfless service. Some winners have focused on ending conflict. This kind of peace is sometimes called `negative'. Others have sought a `positive' peace, one based on justice. While at least one woman falls into each of the categories, those which involve the application of law and/or force have only one woman each. Women are primarily peace activists. They won in ten of the seventy-one years that individuals won. Three won in the first fifty years. There was then a thirty-year hiatus, but since 1976 eight women have been winners. They vary in nationality, age and class, but in only one case did the individual work through well-established institutions. Most acted either as individuals or were founding participants in new organizations.     

Refugees,not Economic Migrants ‐ Why do Asylum‐Seekers Register in Hungary?

The article analyses why asylum‐seekers choose Hungary as an entry point to the European Union. Among the Central and Eastern European countries Hungary has been by far the most popular choice for asylum‐seekers between 2002 and 2016, yet surprisingly, it has been neglected by the literature. Using a panel dataset and fixed effects regressions, the article finds that beyond being ‘conveniently’ located on the Balkans migration route, variables related to Hungary's immigration policy are the most significant determinants of asylum‐seeker choices. The article finds no evidence to support recent claims by the Hungarian government that arrivals to the country are actually economic migrants and not asylum‐seekers; quite the contrary, the results indicate that on average asylum‐seekers entering Hungary are fleeing violent conflict in their countries of origin.