The demographic situation in rural areas

Demographic trends in rural areas of the former Soviet Union are analyzed over the 10-year period 1979-1989, using census data. Over the whole country, the rural population decreased by 1 percent, while the urban population increased by 15 percent, although significant differences existed between the European and Central Asian republics. Factors affecting the dynamics of rural populations are analyzed, including the undeveloped social and economic infrastructure in rural areas.     

All-Union population census 1989

Selected results from the 1989 Soviet census are presented. They concern population size, sex ratio, and age distribution of the rural and urban population for the whole country and constituent republics; and number of families and family size by rural and urban areas for the whole country and constituent republics.     

The demographic,social, and occupational distribution of the population

Some results from Poland's 1985 micro-census of population are presented. They concern population changes by age, sex, marital status, educational status, occupation, and income. The data are presented separately for rural and urban areas.     

The effect of migration on population development

Long-term migration patterns in the USSR are analyzed by Union Republic using data from the 1979 census. The impact on the population of rural and urban areas is considered.     

新农村建设中存在的若干问题

摘　　要:作者认为。在新农村建设中应首先着力解决与农民切身利益相关的一些问题。这些问题包括：农民收入增长缓慢、城乡居民收入差距持续扩大;城乡教育水平差距大、农民教育负担重;城乡医疗卫生资源分布不平衡、农民医疗费用支出负担重;农村社会保障体系缺失。作者对产生这些问题的原因进行了分析,并提出了解决这些问题的一些政策措施 。     

New information from the State Committee on Statistics of the USSR

Selected data concerning the USSR are presented. They concern vital statistics by republic for 1989 for rural and urban areas, birth order, life expectancy by sex, and population change and vital statistics for cities with a population over one million.     

Socio-demographic interests of the population during the transition to a market economy

These are the results of a 1971 survey on reproductive behavior in the former Soviet Union. The survey covered 3,152 women aged 16 or over living in rural or urban areas. Questions were included on ideal, desired, and expected number of children. The results indicate that low fertility expectations characterize the majority of the population and that current political and economic problems are likely to push expected fertility even lower. Significant differences between rural and urban populations and among regions are identified.     

Factors influencing the number and frequency of marriages in Poland in 1985

This is a preliminary review of the results of the annual sample survey for 1985 concerning newlyweds in Poland. The decline in marriage that has occurred, particularly between the ages of 20 and 24, is attributed to changes in the age structure of the population and the deficit of young women in rural areas. Increases in the age at marriage for both sexes are noted.     

陕西省城镇化发展影响因素的实证分析

在全国各地重视城镇化战略和推进城镇化进程的过程中,揭示城镇化的地区特色和现阶段的影响因素具有重要的意义。结合陕西省的具体情况和必要的实地调查,运用SPSSl9．0和Eviews6．0软件对陕西城镇化影响因素进行相关分析和多元统计回归分析,结果表明,陕西省仍处于工业化主导城镇化的发展阶段,第三产业对城镇化的推进作用开始增强;城乡居民收入差别明显是促进乡村人VI向城镇转移的主要动力;制度因素对城镇化的推进作用尚不明显,市场机制有待进一步健全。     

中国城乡多维贫困的测度及比较

传统的仅用收入或消费来衡量贫困的方法只能提供单一的信息,从多维角度则能够较全面地认识贫困。本文利用CHNS数据库中2000年和2009年数据,借鉴了多维贫困指数的构造及分解方法,对近十年来中国城乡多维贫困进行了测度、分解及分析,认为总体上城乡贫困程度均有所减轻,农村贫困严重于城市,应重视医疗健康保险、卫生设施、城市住房、做饭燃料等维度上的贫困,同时降低中西部省份的贫困。     

Statistical materials

Official population data for the USSR are presented for 1985 and 1986. Part 1 (pp. 65-72) contains data on capitals of union republics and cities with over one million inhabitants, including population estimates for 1986 and vital statistics for 1985. Part 2 (p. 72) presents population estimates by sex and union republic, 1986. Part 3 (pp. 73-6) presents data on population growth, including birth, death, and natural increase rates, 1984-1985; seasonal distribution of births and deaths; birth order; age-specific birth rates in urban and rural areas and by union republic; marriages; age at marriage; and divorces.     

中国城市化对经济增长影响机制的实证研究

 本文在对现有文献梳理的基础上，提出城市化可以通过两种机制的作用来推动经济增长：一方面，城市化带来的聚集经济加速物质资本、人力资本和知识资本等要素的积累，从而促进经济增长；另一方面，城市化使得剩余劳动力从农村向城市转移，优化第一产业，促进非农产业的发展，同时城市本身第二、三产业的发展进一步加速了产业结构的升级，从而促进经济增长。即城市化先作用于要素积累和结构变革，然后才间接地对经济增长产生正的影响作用。中国数据的实证检验结果表明：城市化能够通过物质资本、人力资本、知识资本和产业结构这四条途径来影响经济增长；而且，在现阶段人力资本和结构变革是城市化与人均产出之间的显著影响渠道。     

陕西农村贫困问题研究

The paper first measures the poverty line by three methods; then, using quantitative and qualitative methods, analyses the issues such as characteristics and mobility of poverty population, poverty households and poverty counties; finally, put forward the targets and the strategically measures of poverty-assistance in rural areas of Shaanxi province in the Ninth-Five-Years period.     

也谈农业人口与非农业人口的统计问题

时代在前进,经济在发展,观念要转变,思想要提高,生产关系要适应生产力的发展,一切规章制度要符合社会发展的要求,并在不断改进中逐步完善。而这一切又要在马列主义、毛泽东思想、邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想的指导下进行。笔者从事统计和经济实际工作以及教学工作多年,深     

Statistical materials: natural increase of population in the USSR

Data on the population of the USSR by sex and Union republic as of January 1, 1982, are presented. Data are included on population by sex; birth, death, and natural growth rates, 1980 and 1981; distribution of births, deaths, and marriages by month, 1981; distribution of births by birth order, 1981; age-specific birth rates for rural and urban areas, 1980 and 1981; mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer, 1980 and 1981; marriages by age of bride and groom, 1981; and divorces by duration of marriage and age of husband and wife, 1981.     

The concept of spatial order and other problems of regional research in demography

The concept of spatial demographic order is introduced and defined as the preferred spatial distribution of a given demographic variable. The results of a multivariate statistical analysis of demographic trends in rural and urban areas in Poland are presented to illustrate the convergence of such trends in the areas studied. The author concludes that the increasing similarity in demographic processes between rural and urban areas is due mainly to migration.     

中国人口出生率下降与经济发展

中国人口出生率下降以及人口老龄化引起了人们对计划生育政策调整的激烈讨论。作者根据全国27个地区1980~2011年的面板数据,在横截面存在相关性的情形下,运用面板单位根和协整方法,定量考察了人口出生率、人口死亡率、城镇职工工资水平、农村居民收入水平之间的关系。研究发现：1）尽管我国实行了计划生育政策,但人口出生率与经济发展变量之间仍然存在着长期稳定的关系;2）城市和农村的经济发展对于人口出生率的影响存在显著差异。前者会刺激人口出生率的提高,但后者会降低人口出生率,且影响程度比前者大。3）人口出生率与经济发展变量之间的关系存在明显的地区差异。根据以上结论,作者认为放松计划生育政策不会引起我国人口数量猛增,反而会优化人口结构,提高人口整体素质。     

公共预算转移支付反贫困瞄准：以低保为例的ROC方法分析

本文使用中国家庭动态跟踪调查（CFPS）数据，基于代理工具测试模型（Proxy means testing,PMT）并结合ROC曲线方法（Receiver Operating Characteristics）研究低保的反贫困瞄准问题。结果显示：城市单个贫困指数以卫生间类型、电脑拥有情况来衡量较为有效，农村单个贫困指数则以户主年龄、冰箱拥有情况来衡量较为有效。更改贫困概率门槛值会影响公共预算转移支付贫困瞄准结果，对于一个较低的贫困概率门槛值，其对应的覆盖率（公共预算转移支付覆盖贫困人口）和漏损率（非贫困人口被纳入公共预算转移支付）都比较高。当政策制定者把对覆盖贫困人口和排除非贫困人口的目标赋予同等权重时，城乡贫困概率门槛值约为0.5左右。当贫困率较低且使用与贫困率相同的瞄准率时，基于PMT模型的贫困瞄准较差。在贫困率给定的条件下，随着受益比率（包含率）的增加，贫困瞄准的精确性在提高。使用全覆盖所需预算的百分比下降时，覆盖率和漏损率也都呈现下降态势，贫困率逐渐上升，预算中做覆盖之用的比例上升，而预算中漏损部分的比例下降。贫困线的变动会影响覆盖率、漏损率。     

Population projections for the USSR

Population projections for the Soviet Union are presented up to the year 2015. Separate figures are provided for rural and urban population by republic, and for the economically active population by rural and urban area and republic.     

市场化改革与城乡收入差距收敛——基于中国省级面板数据的经验研究

基于1996-2008年省际面板数据,在不同市场化水平情况下,检验城乡收入差距收敛的阶段性,通过门限面板计量模型对市场化水平与城乡收入差距之间的非线性关系进行了研究.研究表明：市场化水平与城乡收入差距之间存在着显著的一阶非线性关系,当市场化水平处于某一特定门限值下时,市场化扩大了城乡收入差距,当市场化进程发展到超过这一门限值时,市场化缩小了城乡收入差距;东部地区要进一步缩小城乡收入相对差距,则对市场化改革的要求则更高;以城乡恩格尔系数和东中西部的稳健性检验也证实了上述结论.另外,研究发现,GDP增长率和第三产业占比与城乡收入差距之间有显著的正相关性.对外依存度、财政支出增长率以及外商投资占比对城乡收入差距的影响则不显著.