Mortality and life expectancy in Poland 10 years before the end of the century

"In the article we discuss the mortality rates in Poland by [voivodship] at the end of the 80's. In the comparative analysis, we employed general standardized rates of deaths for men and women, and coefficients presenting the levels of mortality resulting from...circulatory system diseases and malignant neoplasms.... In the second part of the paper, we examine the differences in...life expectancy by sex and administrative provinces."     

Natural movement of the population in the voivodships of western and northern Poland

The author discusses natural increase in western and northern Poland since 1948. Sections are included on marriages, births, and deaths.     

中国高龄老人健康状况和死亡率变动趋势

文章对“中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查”近两万名80～105岁高龄老人的数据分析发现,社会经济发展使得2008年高龄老人存活概率和自评日常生活自理能力比1998年有显著改善.医疗条件进步使健康较差高龄老人被“救”存活率提高,使2008年高龄老人客观量测的躯体功能和认知功能比10年前显著下降;这给社会和亿万家庭带来严峻挑战.研究表明,经济社会发展和人类寿命提高带来效益的同时,也会产生一定成本;但它不是以往不少国际文献解释这一现象时所称的“胜利的失败”,所以没有必要为此恐慌,而需要全社会积极应对,努力实现人口健康老龄化.     

Estimating the approximate size of the illegal alien population in the united states by the comparative trend analysis of age-specific death rates

This paper presents the results of an attempt to determine, through the use of demographic analysis, the approximate magnitude of the resident illegal alien population in the United States. The method described is the comparative analysis of trends in age-specific death rates in the United States and selected States, 1950 to 1975. The procedure depends on two assumptions: (a) that few or no illegal aliens are included in decennial census counts or current population estimates; and (b) that the reported statistics on deaths include deaths to all or nearly all illegal aliens. If the illegal alien population has increased by several million since 1970, then death rates in geographic areas where illegal aliens are most concentrated should show substantial excesses over the rates for the remainder of the country. A roughly similar downward trend in the death rates of all age groups since 1970 in all areas of the United States is apparent and hence does not support the view that many millions of illegal residents (perhaps over 6 million) are living here. However, the finding of a persistent deviation in the death rate trend for 10 selected States since 1960 for whites males, ages 20 to 44, and for no other group, suggests that the deaths of illegal aliens are being recorded in our vital statistics system. A range of estimates of the illegal alien population based on this analysis is presented and compared with the results of other studies.     

The quality of natural environment and mortality (based on the example of major cities in Poland)

"The paper presents the results of [a] study on the relationship between environmental degeneration and mortality in major cities of Poland [during the 1980s].... The authors examine 22 major cities differed according to the degree of pollution.... The analysis employs...life tables and methods of multiple regression.... The influence of the natural environment quality on mortality is diversified according to sex and age but in general, the interdependence is not strong."     

Fertility decline in a US population favoring large families: A hazard-model analysis of the effect of sib death on Amish fertility

This paper uses proportional hazards techniques and population data from a directory of the Old Order Amish of the Lancaster, PA settlement. It examines the effect of death of the immediately prior sibling on the risk of childbearing for up to 11 children. Prior research typically has pooled data for maternal cohorts. In contrast, separate models are estimated for each maternal cohort. The results are based on all reported first marriages of Amish women born between 1884–1973 (N = 4066). Hazard models run separately for children of each birth order reveal that net of maternal age and length of the prior birth interval (and other statistical and design controls), the death of the prior sib significantly increases the risk of a subsequent birth for the lower birth orders. Separate models by maternal cohort show that sib death increases the risk primarily for later cohorts. The pattern of effects from child mortality and other variables suggests changes in fertility behavior among the Amish, who have strong, traditional norms opposing contraception and favoring large families.     

The population growth in the city of Beijing and our present tasks (author's transl)]

Concern for the rapid population growth since 1949 of China's second largest city, Beijing, is discussed in terms of population control, migration, and rises in the productive development of the city. From 1949 to 1963 the natural rate of population increased from 7.5 to 35.3%; however, after the introduction of a birth control program in 1971, the natural increase of population declined to 4.02% in 1977. From 1949-1978, the average birth rate was 145,000/year while the average death rate was 46,500/year, leaving the annual average increase in population at 98,000. The natural population increased by 2,340,000 from 1949-1978. The massive population growth since 1949 affected the economic development of the city as well as the country. Cultivated land near Beijing increased from 1949-1952, but because of urban development the land for cultivation decreased by 1,527,000 market acres from that available in 1949 (7,965,000 market acres). Population density increased from 430 persons/ square kilometer in 1962 to 506 persons/ square kilometer in 1978. From 1953 to 1978, production and consumption rates fluctuated with a net balance of only 2020 million catties in the 26 years, causing the need for products to be imported from other areas of the country. Unemployment is exacerbated by the lack of jobs and increasing numbers of people. Transportation problems also have developed. New efforts are being made to inform people of population control by the Beijing Population Association begun in 1979, because Beijing's population will continue to increase until 1989 due to the baby boom years during the fifties which created a 2nd boom in the late 1970s as well as the lack of education on population control. Other programs are being developed to, 1) educate people on economical measures of reducing the population, 2) promote governmental departments to improve birth control programs by means of social security services, child health agencies, and nursing schools, 3) propagandize eugenics and genetic education to enhance the population, and 4) reinforce the propaganda on birth control and technical guidance.     

On the nature of errors involved in estimating stage-specific survival rates by Southwood's method for a population with overlapping stages

Summary This paper has examined the effect of within-stage mortality on the estimation of stage-specific survival rates bySouthwood's (1978, p. 358) method. As pointed out bySouthwood, both the severity and timing of mortality affect the mean duration of a life stage, and consequently the estimate of the number of individuals entering that stage. Knowledge of the form of the survivorship curve permits correction of the estimate under certain circumstances. The use ofSouthwood's method with two overlapping stages having different rates and patterns of mortality leads to complex errors in the estimation of survival for the first stage. The nature of these errors is examined analytically and via a simulation model.Southwood's method is fairly robust, with moderate differences in mortality rates leading to acceptable errors in estimating survival for the first stage. When both the rate and pattern of mortality in both life stages are the same, then the survival estimate is made without error. Precise estimates of stage-specific survival will not usually be possible withSouthwood's method because of the errors introduced by the very parameters being measured. Direct measurement of mortality rates and survivorship patterns (seeSouthwood, 1978, p. 309) is strongly advised, at least in preliminary work.     

Mortality by sex,age, and cause of death,in European and highly developed extra-European countries in the years 1960-1984

"A comparative analysis of mortality, in which standardized death rates...were used, was conducted for 24 European and 5...[other] developed countries. The analysis shows that in spite of medical progress in fighting high mortality stemming from primary sources (diseases of [the] circulatory system and malignant neoplasms), its very high level is still registered in many Middle and Eastern European countries (especially in Hungary, in former Czechoslovakia and Poland). A high increase of premature mortality of men aged 45-64 is also observed."     

Assessment of health status of population in north and west Poland on the basis of measures related to pollution and degradation of environment. Trends in mortality

"The objective of this study is to make a cross-sectional assessment of the health status of the population inhabiting West and North Poland, using a set of negative measures of health related to the intensity of environmental factors, and to evaluate mortality trends in the same area that express changes in the rate of morbidity leading to death....The measures assumed in the analysis suggest that the population inhabiting 15 voivodeships in West and North Poland is characterised by a poorer health status than in the other area, both urban and rural."     

Variations in infant mortality rates among counties of the United States: The roles of public policies and programs

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the causes of the rapid decline in the infant mortality rate in the United States in the period after 1963. The roles of four public policies are considered: Medicaid, subsidized family planning services for low-income women, maternal and infant care projects, and the legalization of abortion. The most striking finding is that the increase in the legal abortion rate is the single most important factor in reductions in both white and nonwhite neonatal mortality rates. Not only does the growth in abortion dominate the other public policies, but it also dominates schooling and poverty.     

Predicted changes,in the years 1990-2010, in the state and structure of productive age population in Poland and in selected European countries and their consequences for external migrations

Trends in the number and structure of working-age populations in Europe and Poland are projected for the period 1990-2010. Among their predictions, the authors anticipate that "in Western Europe...the working age population will be reduced by...2%. In both Southern and Northern Europe the working age population will grow...by 1.3% and 3.6% [respectively]. On the other hand, in Eastern Europe the population concerned will grow substantially in those years: this growth is estimated [at]...9.1%." A 14.7 percent increase is predicted for Poland.     

Living and dying in the U.S.A.: Sociodemographic determinants of death among blacks and whites

This paper examines the demographic and social factors associated with differences in length of life by race. The results demonstrate that sociodemographic factors--age, sex, marital status, family size, and income--profoundly affect black and white mortality. Indeed, the racial gap in overall mortality could close completely with increased standards of living and improved lifestyles. Moreover, examining cause-specific mortality while adjusting for social factors shows that compared to whites, blacks have a lower mortality risk from respiratory diseases, accidents, and suicide; the same risk from circulatory diseases and cancer; and higher risks from infectious diseases, homicide, and diabetes. These results underscore the importance of examining social characteristics to understand more clearly the race differences in overall and cause-specific mortality.     

Some comments on Ursula M. Cowgill's article, 'life and death in the sixteenth century in the city of York' (Population Studies, July 1967)

Abstract The initial purpose of Miss Cowgill's investigation was to study possible differences in mortality according to the season of birth, a study in which groups of people must be followed from birth to death. In the present case the groups were composed of people born in six parishes of the City of York between 1538 and 1601.     

我国民族地区城乡结合部流动人口、发展趋势及对策研究——以银川市为例

本文对民族地区城乡结合部进行了一定的理论探索,分析了其流动人口的发展趋势以及由此而产生的诸多社会问题。最后,笔者对流动人口的管理措施提出了相应的对策。     

Nonparametric Bayes and empirical Bayes estimation of the population median,with application in finite-population sampling

ABSTRACT

Nonparametric Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of the population median are provided under Dirichlet process priors. The finite-population sampling is used to estimate the finite-population median under Dirichlet process priors. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained from a frequentist perspective.     

Mixed marriage among immigrants and their descendants in the United Kingdom: Analysis of longitudinal data with missing information

This study investigates the formation of endogamous and exogamous marriages among immigrants and their descendants in the United Kingdom. We apply event history analysis to data from the Understanding Society study and use multiple imputation to determine the type of marriage for individuals with missing information on the origin of their spouse. The analysis shows, first, significant differences among immigrants and their descendants in the likelihood of marrying within and outside their ethnic groups. While immigrants from European countries have relatively high exogamous marriage rates, South Asians exhibit a high likelihood of marrying a partner from their own ethnic group; Caribbean people hold an intermediate position. Second, the descendants of immigrants have lower endogamous and higher exogamous marriage rates than their parents; however, for some ethnic groups, particularly South Asians, the differences across generations are small, suggesting that changes in marriage patterns have been slower than expected.     

Gender differences in the associations of self esteem, stress and social support with functional health status among older adults with heart disease

This study explored and compared the role of self esteem, stress and social support in maintenance or improvement in physical and psychosocial functioning over 12 months in older men and women with cardiovascular disease. Data from 502 adults over 60 years of age showed that self esteem and stress were both significantly associated with functioning when demographic and clinical factors were controlled. Men were significantly more likely than women to maintain or improve in functioning. Self esteem, stress, compliance with medication regimens, and marital status were significantly associated with maintenance or improvement of functioning among women. Only age and stress were significantly associated with maintenance or improvement in functioning among men. Findings indicated that: (1) stress and self esteem were stronger predictors of functioning, especially among women, than demographic and clinical factors; and (2) women in the highest quartile of the self esteem distribution were approximately five times as likely to maintain or improve their functioning as women in the lowest quartile.     

Life tables and population parameters of the green leafhopper,Nephotettix cincticeps (Uhler), in the southwestern district of Japan with special reference to the first generation on foxtail grass

Summary The three year (1988–1990) life tables ofNephotettix cincticeps were constructed, and the daily survival rate and longevity of female adults were estimated by Hokyo and Kiritani’s (1967) method for the overwintering and the first-generations on the foxtail grass in Okayama, southwestern Japan. The life tables and the population parameter values estimated were compared with those in the other generations on rice. The FARMCOP suction sampler was employed to survey the population density. The durations of pre-ovarial maturation of female adults of the 1st generation on foxtail grass and rice seedling were similar. Longevity of adults of the overwintering and the first generations which emerged on the wild host was longer than that of the other generations (2nd and 3rd generations) on the rice plants. Fecundity of females decreased successively as the generation proceeded and it became lowest in the final 3rd generation. Only about 3.5 percent of first-instar nymphs of the 1st generation emerged as adults in the fallow field. The survival rate of nymphs on foxtail grass was always lower in comparison with that on rice plants. However, the survival rates of nymphs on foxtail grass and rice seedling were not significantly different from each other under laboratory conditions. In the fields, senescence of foxtail grass occurred in the midst of nymphal period of the 1st generation. The survival rate of nymphs on foxtail grass decreased with the increasing in the nymphal density. Abundance of spiders during the 1st generation was higher than that in the early stage of rice plants.