编辑部声明

《南方人口》2008年第4期(2008月10月15日发行)刊登了中山大学社会学与社会工作系博士生罗小峰的来稿:"家庭策略视角下的香港-内地跨境家庭维系——基于香港内地移民的实     

从人口抚养比到社会抚养比的探索分析

作者认为"人口红利"的存在与否,并不单由人口年龄结构决定,还受人口规模、人口素质、就业结构、生产与消费模式等因素的影响.于是作者在对人口抚养比进行标准化的基础上,引入"标准消费人口"的概念,对不同年龄结构人口的消费状况进行统一,同时考虑不同产业的劳动人口就业率和产业之间的产出差异,并将标准化后的抚养比称为"社会抚养比".研究发现,标准化后的实际抚养比很大程度上与该地区的产业结构有关.     

在生命的起点阻止贫穷的代际传递

为了阻止贫穷的代际传递,必须保证儿童有一个良好的生命开端,故而减贫行动应从"产前照料"开始.中国政府在贫困地区实施的降低孕产妇死亡率和消除新生儿破伤风项目,即具有这样的意义.然而,在青海省玉树和果洛藏族自治州,牧区妇女的产前照料服务利用率并不高.作者依据实际调查中收集的信息,探寻其中的原因,并提出政策建议.     

1992～2006年中国社会保障支出水平研究

社会保障支出水平是衡量社会经济发展水平的重要指标之一.1992年以来,中国社会保障支出随国民经济的增长稳步增长,但社会保障水平与其他社会保险型模式国家相比还比较低,与国内社会保障需求相比呈现出严重的不适度性.文章认为,在于中国的社会保障供需之间存在着缺口,有限的社会保障供给难以满足日益增长的社会保障需求.在当前企业社会保障负担过重的情况下,要提高社会保障支出水平,就必须突出政府的责任,政府应当在财政支持、资金筹集、基金管理及立法司法等方面发挥作用.     

近二十年来两岸通婚模式的演进及趋势探析

两岸通婚将加快两岸交流和融合,促进祖国和平统一.改革开放以来,两岸通婚不断增加,通婚模式逐步由单一的"盲目崇尚型"向多元的"互动选择型"转变,最终将过渡到理性的"爱情主导型"模式;而当前两岸通婚在政策、观念和配偶及子女身份认同等方面存在的问题,制约着两岸通婚模式的演进,必须采取打击非法假婚姻、建立两岸移民磋商机制、推动台湾方面在居留、工作权、婚姻方面给予大陆配偶平等权利等措施,努力构建有利于促进两岸关系和谐发展的通婚模式.     

Yage–Approaching the Summit Of Art in the World

Fan Jingma,a tenor who passed the 50-year-old birthday had not seen through his destiny.Was the old saying of knowing one’s destiny at f ifty not true on myself?–Fan could not help but asked himself confusedly.Probably from that day,what his own destiny is becomes a question Fan thinks about all the time.After nearly a year,one day before his51-year-old birthday,Fan dated me for     

China Specifies the Scope of Children in Difficulty and will Issue Concrete Relief Measures

On June 1,Premier Li Keqiang hosted the State Council executive meeting to arrange the work to enhance protection of children in difficulty.The meeting decided to include children in difficulty into such scopes of programs as orphan protection,assistance and support     

Migration and Living Apart in China: Economic Rationality vs. Institutional Barriers

While there is a tendency that family members of migrants reunite in receiving societies, a good proportion of family members lives apart in the process of large-scale internal migration in China. This paper, by focusing on nuclear families of married migrants, explores the latest status, patterns and associates of living apart by making reference to the constraints of public policies and structural constraints in receiving societies. Findings from nationally representative data reveal that, Hukou institution and structural barriers in receiving cities prevent migrants from being reunited. Exclusion is more salient among migrants with their Hukou outside receiving province, moving to coastal or western cities. These suggest that, whilst economic development(e.g., east area) does not necessarily bring about more inclusive public policies, low development level(e.g., west area) is less attractive to migrants and their family. Although the crosssectional character of the data does not enable us to draw definite conclusion that the effect on living apart of institutional and structural factors overweighs that of economic rationality, this paper directly illustrates the way their importance could be assessed.     

Explanation about Areas Administered by NHFPC in Government Work Report

At 9 pm on March 5,2015,the Third Session of the 12th National People’s Congress opened at the Great Hall of the People.The session heard the report on the work of the government delivered by Li Keqiang,Premier of the State Council and examined the annual planning and budget reports.What is the progress of policy implementation of critical illness insurance?What is the next step?What new policy will be adopted in public     

Top Ten News about Health and Family Planning in 2014

On January 12,2015,the top ten news about health and family planning in 2014were announced at the regular press briefi ng of National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC).They are as follows.     

清代江南瘟疫对人口之影响初探

瘟疫对人口的影响一直是史学界比较缺乏关注的问题,而史籍中的一些笼统的记载以及近年出现的探索性研究似乎显示,瘟疫是中国历史上影响人口发展最具威力的"冷面杀手".情况究竟如何?笔者通过对发生在清代江南的一些瘟疫个案的考察,认为对清代江南瘟疫带来的人口损失率不宜估计过高,在疫病模式比较稳定的时期和地区,尽管瘟疫发生的频率较高,但对人口发展的影响并非举足轻重,至少不会产生结构性的影响.     

老年人口健康生活质量评价原则的探讨

老年人口健康生活质量的评价是社会养老保障决策过程中的重要依据之一。目前 ,尽管各国都进行了许多有关的评价研究 ,但老年人口生活质量的评价还没有较成熟的权威性量表 ,各种方法各有利弊。本文结合传统的老年人健康状态和功能评价 ,以及老年人口的特点 ,探讨了老年人健康状态和功能评价的思路和内容     

社会安全阀机制与贫富差距调适

当前,我国贫富差距较大已是一客观不争的社会事实。社会安全阀机制则起着调适贫富差距的作用,从而缓解了贫富差距所可能导致的利益和社会冲突,维持和促进了社会的稳定与发展。研究立足于贫富差距较大的客观现实,着重对现有社会安全阀机制进行分析,并指出在健全和完善相应社会安全阀机制的基础上消除较大的贫富差距。     

关于我国“民工荒”与农民工福利待遇的探讨

2004年前后在我国珠三角等地出现了"民工荒"现象,这是否意味着我国农村劳动力乡-城迁移已经接近尾声,从而农村实现土地规模化经营的时机已经成熟?本文根据托达罗模型,利用成本-收益分析法,提出这是农民进城务工收入与务农收入之间差距缩小导致的农村劳动力做出的非迁移决策.并探讨了设置农民工福利项目对劳动力市场和企业雇佣成本的影响.     

Survey of the population development of the minority Li of the Hai-nan Island]

Hai-nan Island is under the jurisdiction of Guangdong Province and has a population of 5,520,000, of which 85% belong to the Han ethnic group, and 13.4% to the Li ethnic group, and there are other small minorities. Since 1949, the population of Hai-nan Island has more than doubled, and a serious population problem exists. Among the minorities, the population growth for the Li people in 1 autonomous region of the Island has been very rapid for 2 reasons: 1) the large number of immigrants moving in from other places, and 2) a high fertility rate among the Li people. In order to slow down the rate of population growth on the Island, the 1st step should be to slow down the growth rate of the largest ethnic group, the Han people. The Li people live mainly in rural and poor areas, and their production level has been very low. In the past 30 years, tremendous progress has been made to improve the health care and livelihood of the Li people. Before 1949, the total number of Li people was only 300,000. By 1980, the Li population had increased to more than 740,000, more than doubling the 1949 figure. This rapid population growth has helped economic development in the areas inhabited by the Li people. On the average, each household in the Li autonomous region has 5.3 children. In order to further improve the living standard of the people, family planning is needed for the Li community. The traditional belief of having more children is currently undergoing a change in the minds of the Li people. The policy of offering economic reward to those who follow family planning regulations is working, and more work is needed to curb rapid population growth.     

论e时代的发展

e时代悄然而至,没有大革命的激昂,没有大萧条的阵痛。这将是人类历史上一个全新的时代。人人关心e时代,讨论e时代,参与e时代的决策,不仅大有必要,大有可能,而且已是时代的必然。本文试图对e时代的缘起、趋势、物质基础和社会特征作一简要的描述。     

陕西省返贫人口特征分析与对策思考

扶贫开发,经过七年艰苦奋战,取得了初步成效,但返贫现象却十分严重。陕西省的返贫人口大致有五类,返贫的根源是人口增长导致生态失衡、人口分布不合理、人口素质偏低、人口产业结构落后、社会保障制度不健全等。     

全面二孩政策对城镇职工基本养老保险收支的影响

2016年1月1日全面二孩政策正式实施,结束了我国实施将近30年的独生子女政策.本文通过构建城镇职工基本养老保险收入和支出模型,以研究2016—2100年全面二孩政策下基本养老金收支关系的变化.研究发现,生育二孩的夫妇越多,养老统筹基金开始出现支出大于收入的年份相应地向后推移,处于支出大于收入的年份区间相应地缩小,并且,养老统筹基金的累计结余随之增加.研究进一步发现,当二孩生育比例处于10%—30%的低生育水平,在维持原财务状况不变时,基本养老保险缴费率可下降到14.44%—17.75%;处于50%—70%的中生育水平时,基本养老保险缴费率可下降到10.36%—12.10%;处于90%—100%的高生育水平时,基本养老保险缴费率可下降到8.44%—9.01%.这表明全面放开二孩政策能够改善我国养老统筹基金的收支关系,缓解养老统筹基金的支付压力,但是该政策受到生育保障力度的影响.     

新农保个人账户财政补贴激励效应研究

新农保试点的跟踪调查数据显示,与"一刀切"财政补贴方式相比,"差别化"财政补贴方式并未能比"一刀切"补贴方式更有效激励参保农民提高缴费档次选择,试点地区的多数参保农民都选择了个人账户最低缴费档次。本文利用引入新农保制度和政策信任程度的代际交叠模型,分析了个人账户"差别化"财政补贴提高参保缴费档次选择的激励效应及实现条件,并使用有序Probit模型和辽宁省调研数据对理论分析结果进行实证检验。研究发现,"差别化"财政补贴方式的激励效应以参保农民对新农保制度的信任程度和财政补贴的边际补贴水平为条件,只有在较高的政策信任程度或较高的边际补贴水平条件下,"差别化"财政补贴方式才可能有效激励参保农民提高缴费档次选择。     

农民养老政策系统的协调性分析——以政策文本为研究对象

本文以国家官方网站的相关政策文件为样本,以政策支持农民养老为理念,以系统协调性为框架,实证分析了农民养老政策系统的协调性。研究结果表明：我国目前的农民养老政策系统不协调表现在主体子系统内部、客体子系统内部、主客体子系统之间、本政策系统与其他政策、本政策系统与环境等五个方面。